Since making the Eastern Confernece Finals in 2020-2021, the Atlanta Hawks have been in the NBA Play-In Tournament for three straight seasons, advancing to the NBA playoffs twice. Projecting the Hawks to make the NBA Playoff Tournament has been an easy thing to at the start of each NBA season.

Will it be different this year? An ESPN Panel has been making projections for the upcoming NBA season and in their Eastern Conference Standings projection, they have the Atlanta Hawks finishing 9th with a 31-41 record and playing the Chicago Bulls in the play-in tournament for the second straight season.

Here is how ESPN is projecting the Eastern Conference standings:

1. Boston Celtics: 61-21

2. New York Knicks: 53-29

3. Philadelphia 76ers: 52-30

4. Cleveland Cavaliers: 50-32

5. Milwaukee Bucks: 49-33

6. Orlando Magic: 47-35

7. Indiana Pacers: 46-36

8. Miami Heat: 45-37

9. Atlanta Hawks: 31-51

10. Chicago Bulls: 30-52

11. Toronto Raptors: 26-56

12. Charlotte Hornets: 21-61

13. Brooklyn Nets: 22-60

14. Detroit Pistons: 20-62

15. Washington Wizards: 17-65

This is a really pessimistic projection for the Hawks this season. Their win total is currently 35.5 at Fanduel and this projection goes under that by quite a bit.

While I don’t think the Hawks are contenders this season, I think 31 wins is too low of a projection for them. Trae Young is still leading the offense and the Hawks have made an effort to address their weaknesses from last season. Atlanta has potentially upgraded on defense and they have gotten bigger. Dyson Daniels has the potential to be a high-level two-way player for the Hawks and could be an ideal starting guard to put next to Young if he can knock down shots on offense. Jalen Johnson took a major leap forward last year and if he can stay healthy, he could be even better. Atlanta has veterans such as Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, Clint Capela, Onyeka Okongwu, and Larry Nance to provide depth. Another X-factor could be how much second-year guard Kobe Bufkin can contribute this year. Bufkin has had some injuries but has flashed when given the chance. The Hawks selected Zaccharie Risacher with the No. 1 pick and he has a chance to provide size on defense and shooting on the other end. Is he ready to contribute from day one?

Young is one of the best playmakers and shot creators in the NBA and the Hawks should still be fine on that end without Dejounte Murray. Can they improve enough on defense and have the younger players take another step forward? If so, the Hawks should be able to clear the 35.5 win total.