Photo:

Renee Torbit / Churchill Downs

Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup action kicks off with the intriguing Filly and Mare Sprint. The likely field of 11 fillies and mares may lack some of the name recognition of other Breeders’ Cup races, but it is filled with honest and consistent runners.

Chad Brown’s Ways and Means has risen to the top of the division and is undefeated in three starts since returning to one-turn races following a defeat in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She will likely be sent off as the favorite, but there is one filly who looks poised to give her all she can handle. 

Below I analyze this year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint field from first to last.

1. Vahva. This daughter of Gun Runner was progressing beautifully as a 4-year-old with a pair of easy graded stakes wins at Churchill Downs this summer before a disappointing third-place effort at Saratoga. That race is easy to forgive as this filly appears to dislike the surface in upstate New York. She ran fifth out of six on debut at Saratoga and she blew a four-length lead in the stretch in her second start. She is 0 for 3 at Saratoga, but is 6 for 9 in sprints elsewhere. She owns 5 wins from 8 starts at this distance and has never been worse than third. She has the perfect stalking style to sit a good trip and is working better than ever. Chad Brown’s former assistant Cherie DeVaux may get the better of her former boss in this spot.

2. Ways and Means. Vahva will need to bring her best effort to beat this talented filly. She is a beast around one-turn with four wins from five starts. She should be able to sit a good trip just off the speed and seven-furlongs should be a perfect distance for her. This will be her biggest class test yet, but it would be no surprise to see the favorite get the job done.

3. Soul of an Angel. The most experienced runner in the field is an interesting long shot in this spot. She will be overlooked because she did not defeat much in the Princess Rooney Stakes (G3) last out, but she was impressive while closing from last behind a slow pace to win going away. Her other one-turn effort since switching trainer to Saffie Joseph Jr. was a romping win over the talented Randomized in the Ruffian (G2). Though she is not as effective going two-turns, she also put a scare into Idiomatic this summer. She may not win, but she should be right in the mix at a nice price.

4. Society. Steve Asmussen’s mare is the toughest horse to evaluate in this this spot. She looked great while winning the Ballerina last out, but she has a history of disappointing on this stage. She was seventh in the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Distaff and fourth in this race last year despite entering off of 105 and 106 Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form in her prior two races. On the positive side, she showed for the first time in her career last out that she could win without controlling the early lead. If she can rate and avoid a speed duel, this mare could produce one of her best efforts, which gives her a fighting chance.

5. Zeitlos. Asmussen’s other entrant has a contrasting running style to Society, but unlike that runner, she always shows up with a solid effort. She has finished in the money in 10 of 13 dirt starts and has won four consecutive starts over the dirt. She has not faced this caliber of competition to this point and will be at a disadvantage as a deep closer, but is a good bet to fill out trifecta or superfecta wagers.

6. Scylla. Bill Mott has tried this well-bred filly at a variety of distances and though she always runs well, this may actually be her best distance. She has never been out of the money in nine starts, but seems just a slight step below the best at this level after a pair of second-place efforts in Grade 1 races.

7. Pleasant. Bob Baffet’s filly owns speed and upside, which can be a dangerous combination. She will try to wrestle the early lead away from Society and will take this field as far as she can. She has plenty of talent, but it is a tall task to go from a Los Alamitos allowance win to the Breeders’ Cup as she makes just her second start since August of 2023.

8. One Magic Philly. Much like Pleasant, this runner has ability, but faces a big class test. She did defeat Sweet Azteca last out, but Sweet Azteca completely misfired that day. If one removes her from that race, she defeated just two other runners. While she may wind up being a force in this division next year, this level of competition seems a bit out of reach at his point in her young career.

9. Kirstenbosch. The local runner was in good form prior to running an average fifth in this race last year, but does not enter this year’s edition with any momentum following a non-threatening effort off a layoff behind One Magic Philly in the Chillingworth Stakes (G3).

10. Pandora’s Gift. This filly may have an outside chance if this race was run on a synthetic surface, but looks up against it while making her first career dirt start. She has yet to claim a graded or group stakes win and is bred to handle turf much better than the dirt. 

11. Frost At Dawn. Unlike Pandora’s Gift, this filly has tried the dirt, but her two efforts in Dubai were underwhelming. She will be one of the longest shots in this field and it would surprising to see her in the mix when the dust settles.