13 insights fantasy football managers need to know ahead of Week 11

Posted by November 16, 2024 Football
13 insights fantasy football managers need to know ahead of Week 11

A wild fantasy season continues to get wilder. Christian McCaffrey is back. Fully back. No ramp-up back. A 19.4% target share back. After nine weeks of fantasy managers growing comfortable not having to face a fantasy football weapon of mass destruction like CMC, he returned to full usage.

Early Sunday of Week 10, the word was out: the expectation was that McCaffrey would touch the ball 20 times. Adam Schefter used the words “full force”— a siren call to fantasy managers who had been longing to have CMC back in their lineups.

McCaffrey didn’t score a TD, and his rushing totals were modest, but fantasy managers have to be pleased with the final result. San Francisco’s second-leading rusher was Brock Purdy, while Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo were complete non-factors.

Some fantasy teams with McCaffrey have too big of a hill to climb to challenge for a playoff berth. However, others were able to tread water and now have an instant RB1 back in their lineups. This creates an interesting dichotomy heading into the fantasy playoffs. In many leagues, top seeds may find themselves in danger of being eliminated by a fifth- or sixth-place team that gets hot at the right time behind McCaffrey.

Still, there are many more things fantasy managers need to keep an eye on beyond the return of one of fantasy’s all-time greats. Here are a few things to watch for in Week 11 and beyond.

1. Jauan Jennings: Post-bye week winner

McCaffrey wasn’t the only bright spot for fantasy managers in San Francisco’s win over Tampa Bay. Jauan Jennings returned from a hip injury that sidelined him in Weeks 8-9 and appeared to step into the 2023 Brandon Aiyuk role. Jennings led the 49ers in all receiving categories, finishing with 7 catches for 93 yards on 11 targets. Those numbers become even more impressive when you dive into the metrics:

Rookie wideout Ricky Pearsall also impressed with 4 catches, including his first career TD — an explosive 46-yarder in the first quarter. The 49ers offense is back on the upswing.

2. Chase Brown: The forgotten man

This column drops eight days after the previous week’s Thursday Night Football game. Measured in fantasy football time, that is an eternity. As much as I would like to spend time giving you yet another take on Ja’Marr Chase’s historic fantasy performance or Joe Burrow passing for 9 TDs over his past two games, I’ve probably missed my window.

Instead, I’d like to focus on Cincinnati’s emerging fantasy star at RB: Chase Brown. Lost in the Chase and Burrow shuffle was Brown’s dominant performance. He finished with a career-high 9 receptions, and he netted his second straight weekly top 5 RB tally.

Brown will have a difficult matchup as a receiver this week. The Chargers allow the second-fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs in football.

3. Jonathan Taylor and the Anthony Richardson splits

The Indianapolis QB carousel continues. After only 14 days, the Colts decided that the 39-year-old Joe Flacco was not, in fact, the answer at quarterback and will reinsert Anthony Richardson in the starting role. Flacco passed for 2 TDs and 4 interceptions as the Colts lost two straight games — Minnesota and Buffalo — by a combined score of 51-33. One of the season’s main soap operas continues.

Richardson returning as the starting quarterback could be trouble for Indianapolis’ pass catchers. His 44% completion percentage ranks dead last among all quarterbacks with at least 14 pass attempts this season. But one player who should see a significant boost to his fantasy output is Jonathan Taylor. The rushing splits for Taylor with Richardson and Flacco were night and day. If you remove Taylor’s 59-yard first quarter run from last week’s game, the splits become even wider.

Taylor is a locked-in RB1 moving forward, with a potentially great matchup down the road in Week 17. Indianapolis will face off against the New York Giants (fourth-most rushing yards allowed). Fantasy manager rostering Taylor should hope for no more quarterback changes.

4. Puka Nacua — Target Hog: The Sequel

Puka Nacua’s rookie season was legendary. He set multiple rookie records including receptions (105) and yardage (1,486). Year 2 got off to a bumpy start as a Week 1 knee injury cost him five games. It appears as though Nacua and the Rams want to make up for lost time.

If we exclude Week 9 (Nacua was ejected early), he has averaged 18.5 PPG and a target share of 28.8%. In those two games played, he has a first-read rate of 41.9%. Even playing alongside a healthy Cooper Kupp, Nacua has easy WR1 upside moving forward.

5. A backfield takeover in Denver

There appears to be a changing of the guard at running back in Denver. Aside from his Week 7 outburst against New Orleans, Javonte Williams has been nonexistent as a runner. Williams is averaging 3.8 yards per carry, a disappointing follow-up to his career-low 3.5 YPC in 2023. His struggles have opened the door for a rookie takeover.

Audric Estime dominated the rush attempts and opportunities in Week 10, finishing with 53 rushing yards. On the season — albeit in a small sample size — he is averaging an impressive 5.1 YPC.

Estime’s newfound opportunity could shape the Broncos’ game plan for the second half of the season. Bo Nix is a top 5 rusher among quarterbacks, and the all-rookie backfield could nicely complement to one of the league’s best defenses.

6. CeeDee Lamb and the Cooper Rush problem

In Week 10, CeeDee Lamb was targeted on 31% of Dallas’ pass attempts with a first-read rate of 39.1 % (per Fantasy Points data). When Lamb has these sort of numbers, it usually coincides with massive fantasy scoring. The problem was that Dallas passed for only 66 yards. Not in the first quarter. Not in a half. But in the entire game.

Dallas finished with only 146 total yards — 12th fewest in franchise history. Cooper Rush was abysmal, but he will remain the starter, with the possibility of a Trey Lance takeover looming. Matchup wise, Week 11 has some positives. Lamb faces off against a Texans team that has allowed 12 top 24 finishes to opposing wideouts. But with the futility at QB, it is hard to trust Lamb as anything more than a talented, volume-driven WR2.

7. Dallas’ historically bad season

With last week’s loss, the Cowboys dropped to a 3-7 record. They have lost four games at home and could be in danger of challenging the Cowboys’ all-time record of eight in a season — set in 1989, Jimmy Johnson’s first year at the helm. Their point differential has been remarkably bad at AT&T Stadium.

They have five home games left on the schedule, starting with this week’s Monday Night Football matchup against Houston. On paper, the best chance for another home win is going to be against the New York Giants on Thanksgiving Day. This is going to be an unfamiliar and rocky road for Cowboys fans.

The one light at the end of the tunnel? An early pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. At least one college star is already making his case to be a Cowboy.

8. The return of a league-winning WR

Nico Collins is back, and fantasy managers have reason to rejoice. Collins ranks 19th in receiving yards this season, despite playing in only five games. His 21.3 PPG mark is second among all wideouts, trailing only Ja’Marr Chase’s 22.5. Fantasy managers everywhere are excited, as is Demeco Ryans.

Collins returns to a Texans offense that has been particularly Joe Mixon-focused, with a passing play percentage of just 55% over their past five games. Despite this recent trend, expect OC Bobby Slowik to give Collins all the work he can handle. Before his injury, Collins had a target share of 23.2%, a number that should climb significantly with Stefon Diggs out for the season.

9. George Pickens unlocked

George Pickens has been on an absolute tear since Russell Wilson took over at QB. The Steelers returned from their bye week with a 28-27 win over Washington in Week 10, and Pickens yet again led the way. He finished with 5 catches for 91 yards and a TD. In his three games alongside Wilson, Pickens has averaged 18 PPG and is fourth among all WRs with a 3.0 yards per route (per Fantasy Points Data).

Pickens now faces off against a Baltimore defense that allowed three catches of over 65 yards to Ja’Marr Chase. This will be yet another chance for Pickens to put up a big fantasy scoring performance. It is also a game with massive divisional ramifications, with the winner in the driver’s seat to win the AFC North.

10. Chuba Hubbard pays back Carolina

Last week, I discussed how Hubbard was rewarded with a massive contract for his strong play.

Just a few days after inking his new deal, Hubbard led the Panthers to a win in Germany over the New York Giants. He had one of his best games as a pro, rushing for a career-high 153 yards. He was especially elusive while doing so.

The Panthers head to their bye week on a rare two-game winning streak — their first since Week 14 of 2022. Rookie Jonathon Brooks should make his debut in Week 12, but it is hard to imagine he makes much of a dent into Hubbard’s fantasy scoring. Carolina most likely becomes even more RB-centric in their touch distribution.

11. A Calvin Ridley rebound

One of the biggest fantasy turnarounds of the season is taking place in Tennessee with Calvin Ridley. Ridley signed with the Titans this offseason on a massive $92 million free-agent deal. Early returns were about as bad as it gets. From Weeks 1-7, Ridley averaged 7.5 PPG and was WR69. Absolute rock bottom occurred in Week 6.

From Weeks 8-10, Ridley completely turned things around, averaging 20.1 PPG — landing him among some elite company.

Any notion that this uptick in scoring was simply a result of Mason Rudolph behind center was put to bed in Week 10. Will Levis returned, and Ridley scored a season-high 25.4 PPR points, finishing with 5 catches for 84 yards and 2 TDs.

12. Drake London: Welcome to Surtain Island

WR1s facing off against Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II have had a rough go. A really rough go.

Surtain has been fantasy kryptonite to opposing alphas all season long. This week, he faces off against one of fantasy’s top producers and breakout stars at the position, Drake London. London is WR4 on the season and is coming off an 8-catch, 97-yard performance. Will Atlanta look elsewhere or challenge Surtain? This is one of the best game-within-the-game matchups to watch this week.

13. Alvin Kamara: PPR king

Alvin Kamara caught 5 passes in New Orleans’ win over Atlanta. Kamara leads all RBs with 51 catches and is fantasy’s season-to-date RB3. With no Chris Olave, Kamara’s already strong target volume has skyrocketed.

The Saints at 3-7, have become an afterthought in the league and Kamara receives far less attention than fellow veteran RBs like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. While Kamara won’t be chasing a playoff berth, he is chasing NFL records. Last week, he passed Matt Forte with his 556th career catch, moving him to ninth all-time among running backs.

It’s a matter of when, not if, Kamara climbs higher on this list. With 32 more catches this season, Kamara will surpass Marcus Allen for fifth all-time with 588.

(Top photo of Chase Brown: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images)

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