Photo:

Casey Phillips / Eclipse Sportswire

This week’s two-day Breeders’ Cup extravaganza features 14 world-class races, many with deep and wide-open fields. It’s not a question if any long shots will hit the board. Rather it’s only a matter of how many of them will run big races to spice up the exotics at Del Mar.

It happens every single year, and 2024 will be no different. With that in mind, I am zeroing on the most likely candidates in order to really cash in.

The first part of the equation is identifying the races most likely to produce some big prices. Considering past history, pace scenario and vulnerable favorites, some of my favorite races this year in searching for odds include the Sprint, Mile and the Turf Sprint.

Here are my 10 live long shots.

Arthur’s Ride, Classic. Due to a disappointing effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and the depth of the field, this speedster will have very attractive odds in the big one Saturday. If you can get past the last race, however, his previous two starts for trainer Bill Mott look awfully good. This year’s Classic has lost other speed types recently, meaning Arthur’s Ride should have less competition for the early lead than originally suspected. I can see this talented 4-year-old getting very brave if allowed to lope freely up the Del Mar backstretch.

Gina Romantica, Mile. A mare who loves firm turf, this Chad Brown trainee ran a sneaky good race in last year’s Mile. The three-time Grade 1 winner is clearly back in top form after a very impressive victory in the First Lady (G1) last out. She has enough tactical speed to stay in touch early but is best when she gets some pace to run at. That should be the case Saturday. With only one win this year, her odds should be juicy, and I expect her to run a good race.

Isivunguvungu, Turf Sprint. South Africa is 0-for-2 in the Breeders’ Cup, but this veteran sprinter could pull off a historic first. The turf racing there is underrated, and this 6-year-old gelding was a consistent force going five furlongs while carrying high weight. Brought to the barn of Graham Motion specifically for this race, he had plenty of time to acclimate before making his America debut a winning one gamely at Colonial Downs. I fully expect him to outrun his odds against a strong Turf Sprint field.

Moira, Filly & Mare Turf. Yes, the Europeans will be tough as usual, and there is also War Like Goddess to contend with, but sleeping on this champion from Canada would be a mistake, in my opinion. She is 0-for-2 in this race the past two seasons, but in she ran well if not a bit unlucky in both. Flying under the radar, she looks better than ever this year as a 5-year-old. I suspect that the added distance here will not hurt her chances, and she is a mare I believe due to win a big one.

More Than Looks, Mile. The second on this list in the Mile, this lightly raced son of More Than Ready should be ready to fire his best shot in what will be his third race of the year. He rallied well in this last year as a 3-year-old but should have an even better chance this time around. Carl Spackler beat him in both starts this year, but a stronger pace may well be the key to him turning the tables on that rival. Win or lose, I think he is a great bet to rally up into the exotics.

Nakatomi, Sprint. With so much speed lining up here this year, I definitely will be looking for horses who have proven they can pass horses. The first of two such runners is Nakatomi. I’ve seen him listed in some places as one of the favorites, but considering his 5 1/2-length loss last time at Keeneland, I expect his odds to drift up well into the 8-1 range Saturday. That’s very attractive for a horse who ran third in this race last year and will be passing the tired pacesetters here.

Post Time, Dirt Mile. In one of the more wide-open races of the entire Breeders’ Cup, this Maryland-bred brings plenty to like to the table. He is proven at both the Grade 1 level and around two turns. He is also a very consistent horse who should appreciate the expected solid early pace. After a series of tough assignments where he showed he can compete at the highest level, he got a reprieve and some added confidence with a runaway win last time at Laurel Park. The son of Frosted should be in the mix once again.

Remake, Sprint. While I expect Nakatomi to come from mid-pack in the Sprint, this Japan-based runner will be farther back early. Proven for class in several countries, he does his best running flying down the stretch at the six-furlong distance. Coming off a strong return race to prepare for this, he should be ready for his best. If the pace is as hot as I expect Saturday, this one’s late kick may prove irresistible, and at odds.

Shahryar, Turf. He lands below Rebel’s Romance in the Breeders’ Cup Turf for me, but after that this son of Deep Impact looks like one of the biggest threats. He was a very good third last year at odds of 25-1. Although he is winless in three starts this year, his form is not bad at all, including a second to the favorite in Dubai. After a freshening, he got a solid prep against good company in Japan. The well-traveled runner is best at 12 furlongs and has some big wins in his past performances.

Zeitlos, Filly & Mare Sprint. It will be a step up in class for this daughter of Curlin, but there can be little doubt she comes into the race in career best form. Her win last time at Keeneland was her strongest race ever, and it gave her four straight wins on dirt. With Society setting a strong early pace and many of the other favorites in hot pursuit, things should set up her well for her late rally. I’m not certain that she has progressed to the point to beat all the Grade 1 material she will face here, but I like her chances to be running on well late.