Tiger’s team beats Rory’s team in overtime last Monday night in the TGL. Rory wins at Pebble Beach on Sunday in his 2025 PGA Tour debut. Now WM Phoenix Open week is here, taking up its usual spot as the pre-party for the Big Game on Super Sunday. February is off to a great start.

Scottie Scheffler made his 2025 season debut last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am as well and to nobody’s surprise, the world No. 1 recorded yet another top-10 finish — something he did 18 times last season.

The Kansas City Chiefs are trying to “three-peat” this year and it was Scheffler trying to pull off three straight wins at the WM Phoenix Open last year. He was the in-game betting favorite with roughly 6-7 holes left to play on the inward nine on Sunday, but was eventually overtaken by Nick Taylor. Taylor is a 65-1 long shot to defend his title. Scheffler is being listed at less than 3-1 to recapture the crown, trading in the neighborhood of +280. Scheffler is such a heavy favorite, in fact, there are markets “Without Scheffler,” meaning you can bet on everyone else in the field, essentially trying to land correctly on who will finish second this week at TPC Scottsdale. The “Tiger-Like” dominance continues to show up in many different ways. Like Larry Bird arriving at a 3-point shooting contest, asking “which one of you is going to finish second?” the betting markets seem to be asking us the same question. 

It’s no wonder that this tournament sets up so well for Scheffler, as it is truly a ball striker’s course. Others who rely on this part of their game, Hideki Matsuyama (twice), Rickie Fowler, Brooks Koepka (twice), and Webb Simpson have all won here in the last 10 years. Because it is such a weighted skill set at this golf course, I leaned heavily on Strokes Gained: Approach and SG: Ball Striking in my handicap this week. I also looked at SG: OTT, on the par 4s measuring between 400-500 yards, the par 5s, Hole Proximity from 150-200 yards, and another key ingredient this week, Scrambling.

The WM Phoenix Open is a very predictive tournament in the sense that players who have done well here in the past, are likely to do so again. It is interesting to note that many of these players who continue to have success at TPC Scottsdale, also show up quite a bit on the leaderboards at my correlated courses.

Bay Hill is probably my number one. Scheffler has won the Arnold Palmer Invitational twice, just as he has won twice at TPC Scottsdale. Other courses where I see the same skill sets being prioritized, similarities in the layouts, and crossover success are Royal Troon, home to last year’s Open Championship, Olympia Fields, site of the 2020 and 2023 BMW Championship, Southern Hills, host to the 2022 PGA Championship, The Summit Club in Las Vegas, where they played the CJ Cup in 2022, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, which is one of the three courses used in La Quinta, Calif., at the American Express, and then Memorial Park, home to the Houston Open since 2020.

As usual, I am playing these selections for an outright win and a top-20 finish.

Sam Burns (25-1)

Burns began the season with a top-10 finish in Maui, on his preferred putting surface, Bermudagrass. He was sixth in the field last week at Pebble Beach for SG: OTT and was 12th in Greens in Regulation, but the Poa Annua putting surface was clearly not to his liking. Despite finishing 22nd, he ranked 46th in SG: Putting. Here in the desert he returns to the Bermudagrass surface. It is dormant during this time of the year but it hasn’t seem to have bothered Burns, who has finished third and sixth here in his last two trips. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks fourth in this field for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass). He is also 15th in Scrambling and 10th on the 400-450 yard par 4s. Burns has finished ninth in the past at Bay Hill, 15th at Olympia Fields, 20th at Southern Hills, seventh at The Summit Club, and seventh twice at the Houston Open at Memorial Park.

Matt Fitzpatrick (60-1)

This is certainly a horse for the course selection and not necessarily based on current form. Fitzpatrick hasn’t recorded a top-10 finish since last June and has dropped outside of the top 50 in the OWGR but he has played very well here in Scottsdale and at the correlated courses — and he fits my profile this week of a ball striker who carries a hot putter. He’s been here three times and finished 15-29-10. At Bay Hill, he’s finished 14th and ninth in the past, sixth and runner-up at Olympia Fields, fifth at Southern Hills, and 13th at The Summit Club. He clearly knows how to win on the biggest of stages. If he shows up again here this week, like he has in the past, he’ll have a chance, and at 60-1 or better, I feel like that is a good play.

J.T. Poston (66-1)

Another excellent Bermudagrass putter (10th in this field for the last 36 rounds) and proven winner who has played well at TPC Scottsdale in the past. Poston has finished 11-26-23 here in prior trips and has recorded top-25 finishes at both Olympia Fields and Memorial Park. Poston ranks inside the top 50 in this field for SG: OTT and in the top 25 on the par 4s measuring 400-500 yards over the last 36 rounds. He opened with a round of 62 on the Nicklaus Tournament Course at the American Express last month and closed out last season on a heater, winning in Las Vegas, followed by a fifth-place finish at the RSM Classic in late November. I believe current and course form are both in play for Poston.

Billy Horschel (80-1)

I really like this number on Horschel as I have seen many shops dealing closer to 60 or 70-1. Remember to always shop around for the best price. Last year was a great one for the Florida Gator and Bermudagrass putting specialist (third in this field for the last 36 rounds). He had seven top-10 finishes including a win and a runner-up in the Open Championship at Royal Troon, one of our correlated courses this week. He’s been 11-6-9 at TPC Scottsdale, 20-13-2 at Bay Hill, seventh at The Summit Club and seventh at Memorial Park in Houston. He comes off of a ninth-place finish last week at Pebble Beach where he ranked third in the field for SG: Approach. Another consummate ball striker who can putt and has very positive course history.

Tom Hoge (80-1)

Sound familiar — another ball striker who can putt? Yes, that fits Mr. Hoge’s profile too. Hoge was fourth on Tour last season for SG: Approach. Over the last 36 rounds, he is 35th in this field for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) and 16th for SG: Approach. He was eighth back in January at The Sentry and comes off of a top-20 finish last week at Pebble Beach where he was 14th in the field on approach and was second in Driving Accuracy. He has multiple top-15 and top-25 finishes both here in Phoenix and at the correlated courses, including a ninth-place finish at Southern Hills at the 2022 PGA Championship. I feel like the price is about right and you can probably find even a little better.

Gary Woodland (100-1)

Now for the triple-digit bombs. Woodland is off to a solid start this season with a 16th at the Sony Open and a 22nd-place finish last week — and he won here at TPC Scottsdale in 2018. Certainly, he is an excellent driver of the golf ball, won a U.S. Open with premier ball striking, and in his last five starts, Woodland has gained over a stroke on the field with the putter. Eleven’s are wild as Woodland, over the last 36-rounds, ranks 11th in this field for SG: Ball Striking, 11th for Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards, and 11th on the Par 5s measuring 550-600 yards. If the putter remains in good form, course history in Phoenix may repeat itself once again.

Taylor Moore (100-1)

If anything, we are consistent as Moore also fits the ball striker who can putt, mold. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks sixth in this field for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass). Moore is two-for-two in cuts made here in Phoenix with a 14th-place finish here in 2023. He is three-for-three in cuts made at Bay Hill and finished runner-up at Memorial Park in Houston last season. The current form looks good too with a seventh at the American Express last month and a 22nd at Pebble Beach last week.