WM Phoenix Open Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Rory McIlroy lived up to the golfing adage of “driving for show and putting for dough” Sunday as he won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am for his 27th PGA Tour victory at an 11-1 price tag. McIlroy, who referred to Pebble Beach as one of the “cathedrals of golf,” led the field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee (+6.52) and Driving Distance (336.7), plus ranked seventh for Strokes Gained: Putting. McIlroy’s 21-under par score was two better than close friend Shane Lowry and three better than former AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winner Justin Rose and Lucas Glover. 

Scottie Scheffler made his 2025 debut at Pebble Beach and finished T-9 while leading the field for Strokes Gained: Approach. Scheffler (+320) is the favorite this week at the WM Phoenix Open, where he is a two-time champion (2022, 2023). His 2022 victory was the first of 13 PGA Tour victories he has amassed over the last three calendar years. 

Justin Thomas (12-1) has not finished worse than 13th in six years at Phoenix, including three top-4 finishes. 

Hideki Matsuyama (18-1), like Scheffler, also won back-to-back here at Phoenix in 2016 and 2017. 

Sungjae Im (22-1) has two top-4 finishes in four events to start the 2025 season.

Sam Burns (28-1) has finished third and sixth, respectively, in Phoenix the last two years.

Tom Kim (35-1) cost himself a little bit of money finding the water off the tee at the 18th on Sunday and dropped from T-3 to T-7.

At 40-1 are Corey Conners and Sepp Straka, who was the 54-hole leader at Pebble Beach. 

Defending WMPO champion Nick Taylor (60-1) was also the runner-up to Scheffler here in 2023. 

Other former WMPO winners in the field this week include 2020 winner Webb Simpson (200-1), 2019 winner Rickie Fowler (75-1) and 2018 winner Gary Woodland (100-1).

The Event

The Waste Management Phoenix Open, nicknamed the “Greatest Show on Grass” and more recently hashtagged as #ThePeoplesOpen, began in 1932 as the Arizona Open. The tournament alternated between the Phoenix Country Club and the Arizona Country Club until 1975 when the latter took over as host until 1987 when the event was moved to its present home of the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale. This event is historically the best-attended event in golf as the weekly attendance usually exceeds 750,000 spectators. The signature hole is the 16th, nicknamed “The Coliseum,” is a par-3 of 162 yards and possesses a party atmosphere as many college students from nearby Arizona State University flock to the course. Poor shots are jeered while good to great shots are met with raucous cheers. It’s almost as if “Happy Gilmore” comes to life here. 

Since 1973, the WMPO, organized by local Phoenix charity The Thunderbirds, has been held on the weekend opposite the Super Bowl. Many big names have won here, including three-time winners Arnold Palmer (1961, 1962, 1963), Gene Littler (1955, 1959, 1969), Mark Calcavecchia (1989, 1992, 2001) and Phil Mickelson (1996, 2005, 2013). Other legendary names to win here include Byron Nelson (1939, 1945), Ben Hogan (1946, 1947), Jimmy Demaret (1949, 1950), Billy Casper (1957), Jack Nicklaus (1964), Johnny Miller (1974, 1975), Vijay Singh (1995, 2003) and Scottie Scheffler (2022, 2023). The tournament scoring record of 256 (-28) is shared by Mark Calcavecchia (2001) and Phil Mickelson (2013). The course record of 60 (-11) shared by Calcavecchia (2001), Grant Waite (1996), Mickelson (2005, 2013) and most recently Nick Taylor in last year’s first round. 

The tournament has had a winning margin of one stroke in 15 of the past 18 years, including eight playoffs. 

The Field

132 players are in this week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open field with a cut down to the low 65 and ties coming on Friday afternoon. 

Headed by World No. 1 Scheffler, 11 of the OWGR Top 25 players are in this week’s field. 

The Course 

The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale was designed in 1986 by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish. It was redesigned in 2014 with the course being lengthened and the greens being resurfaced. The track plays as a par-71 of 7,261 yards, which is average length by PGA Tour standards and comprised of 11 par-4s, four par-3s and three par-5s. TPC Scottsdale is a tad over 1,500 feet above sea level (second highest on the PGA Tour) so the ball will travel a bit longer at altitude but only around 2%.

In terms of scoring, TPC Scottsdale rated mid-pack on the PGA Tour last year.

The fairways are a rye and fescue overseed with an average width of 31.5 yards. The rough is relatively short at just 2″.  The Poa trivialis/rye overseeded greens are firm and average in terms of speed (12 on the stimpmeter) and are the ninth largest (7,069 square feet) on tour. Greens are a majority Poa trivialis with some ryegrass mixed in and are very similar to the greens at PGA West Stadium, TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook, TPC San Antonio and Harbour Town.

The Phoenix area went nearly five months without any rain from late August 2024 to late January 2025, so the course should play firmer and faster as the week progresses, which can cause drives to roll through the fairways and approaches to roll off the greens into the short grasses. 

There are also five water holes on the layout and other holes with scattered waste areas. Because of the waste areas, TPC Scottsdale is not as heavily bunkered as you might think with just 67 littered throughout the course. 

The back nine, particularly the last four holes, is the most interesting part of the course. 

It begins on the 15th hole with a 553-yard par-5 that features an island green, but is easily reachable in two shots as the 15th typically plays as the easiest hole on the course.

The par-3 16th hole, known as “The Coliseum,” is one of the most intimidating and raucous shots in golf. Despite the loud crowds, the 16th is a simple hole into a two-tiered green.

As mentioned, the par-4 332-yard 17th is the most stressful and exciting hole on the course. Tournaments are won and lost here (as Sahith Theegala found out three years ago). It is a drivable green and players will certainly be egged on by the spectators to go for it, but there is a great deal of risk involved, particularly on Sunday. 

The closing hole is a 442-yard par-4 that doglegs to the left with water down the entire left side. This water hazard has been what ends many chances for victory as it plays over par.

Correlated courses to TPC Scottsdale include: TPC Summerlin, PGA West Stadium Course, TPC Sawgrass, Summit Club, Silverado, Concession and PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course.

TPC Scottsdale’s Facebook page has a 20-minute video flyover of the Stadium Course. 

WMPO Recent History/Winners 

2024: Nick Taylor (-21/263); 125-1*

2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19/265); 13-1

2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16/268); 25-1**

2021: Brooks Koepka (-19/265); 50-1

2020: Webb Simpson (-17/267); 14-1***

2019: Rickie Fowler (-17/267); 22-1

2018: Gary Woodland (-18/266); 50-1****

2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17/267); 11-1*****

2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14/270); 25-1 ******

2015: Brooks Koepka (-15/269); 40-1

2014: Kevin Stadler (-16/268); 125-1

2013: Phil Mickelson (-28/256); 25-1

2012: Kyle Stanley (-15/269); 66-1

2011: Mark Wilson (-18/266); 80-1*******

2010: Hunter Mahan (-16/268); 66-1

Playoff win over Charley Hoffman – *

Playoff win over Patrick Cantlay – **

Playoff win over Tony Finau – ***

Playoff win over Chez Reavie – ****

Playoff win over Webb Simpson – *****

Playoff win over Rickie Fowler – ******

Playoff win over Jason Dufner – *******

WMPO Trends

Here are winner trends for the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

• 16 of the last 18 winners had played in at least two previous WM Phoenix Open events.
• 13 of the last 14 winners had a finish of seventh or better in one of their last five starts before their win at the WM Phoenix Open.
• 15 of the last 17 winners had finished 11th or better in a previous WM Phoenix Open.
• 15 of the last 17 winners had at least one previous top-10 that season.
• 18 of the last 22 winners were age 34 or younger.
• 13 of the last 16 winners were ranked in the OWGR Top 55.
• 13 of the last 16 winners had at least three career wins. 

Although the WMPO is not a “Signature Event,” it typically has a field with some elite players at the top, so it is not surprising that the above trends indicate that experienced players with at least some winning pedigrees have been the most successful here. 

Statistical Analysis

Scottie Scheffler led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach in this 2023 WMPO victory. Webb Simpson did the same in 2020 as did Hideki Matsuyama in 2017.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 1.725
2. Victor Perez 1.373
3. Chan Kim 1.301
4. David Lipsky 1.146
5. Nick Taylor 1.111
6. Tom Hoge 1.110
7. Trey Mullinax 1.101
8. Sepp Straka 1.075
9. Mac Meissner 0.936
10. Hideki Matsuyama 0.932
11. J.J. Spaun 0.928
12. Lucas Glover 0.902
13. Alex Smalley 0.818
14. Andrew Putnam 0.817
15. Rasmus Højgaard 0.807
16. Adam Svensson 0.796
17. Min Woo Lee 0.764
18. Sam Stevens 0.722
19. Doug Ghim 0.710
20. Tom Kim 0.706

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 1.269
2. Corey Conners 0.776
3. Tom Hoge 0.754
4. Lucas Glover 0.710
5. Doug Ghim 0.659
6. Justin Thomas 0.639
7. Kurt Kitayama 0.608
8. Henrik Norlander 0.571
9. Keith Mitchell 0.531
10. Si Woo Kim 0.506
11. Hideki Matsuyama 0.499
12. Joel Dahmen 0.486
13. J.J. Spaun 0.469
14. Patton Kizzire 0.458
15. Andrew Novak 0.430
16. Greyson Sigg 0.414
17. Mac Meissner 0.405
18. Austin Eckroat 0.395
19. Chez Reavie 0.394
20. Lee Hodges 0.363

While TPC Scottsdale has the longest Driving Distance of any course on tour since it is a driver-heavy course due to the lack of penal rough, plus elevation and firm conditions, accuracy is still important to avoid the water hazards and waste areas. Total Driving takes both distance and accuracy into account.

Total Driving — Driving Distance Rank + Driving Accuracy Rank (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Daniel Berger 48 (16 + 32) 
2. Gary Woodland 50 (3 + 47)
3. Rico Hoey 72 (7 + 65)
4. Henrik Norlander 81 (41 + 40)
5. K.H. Lee 88 (66 + 22)
6. Charley Hoffman 90 (19 + 71)
7. Tom Kim 96 (9 + 87)
8. Keith Mitchell 98 (24 + 74)
9. Ben Martin 99 (61 + 38)
10. Bud Cauley 100 (26 + 74)
11. Rasmus Højgaard 106 (11 + 95)
12. Lee Hodges 110 (67 + 43)
13. Kris Ventura 116 (13 + 103)
14. Patrick Rodgers 121 (58 + 63)
15. Chan Kim 124 (69 + 55)
16. Ben Kohles 124 (121 + 3)
17. Lucas Glover 125 (117 + 8)
18. Carson Young 125 (93 + 32)
19. Vincent Norrman 128 (22 + 106)

Total Driving — Driving Distance Rank + Driving Accuracy Rank (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Rico Hoey 83 (25 + 58)
2. Scottie Scheffler 87 (64 + 23)
3. Patrick Fishburn 98 (30 + 68)
4. Austin Eckroat 109 (93 + 16)
5. Alex Smalley 111 (38 + 73)
6. Jordan Spieth 115 (43 + 72)
7. Joe Highsmith 116 (46 + 70)
8. Daniel Berger 123 (118 + 5)
9. Sam Burns 126 (39 + 87)
10. Matti Schmid 126 (35 + 91)
11. Davis Thompson 129 (47 + 82)
12. Chan Kim 130 (85 + 45)
13. Hayden Springer 134 (16 + 118)
14. Lanto Griffin 135 (58 + 77)
15. Chris Kirk 136 (103 + 33)
16. Akshay Bhatia 138 (104 + 34)
17. Corey Conners 140 (90 + 50)
18. Keith Mitchell 140 (14 + 126)
19. Carson Young 140 (136 + 4)

TPC Scottsdale is a ball-strikers course, but players can still gain strokes off the tee. 

Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Charley Hoffman 0.948
2. K.H. Lee 0.903
3. Bud Cauley 0.836
4. Keith Mitchell 0.797
5. Kurt Kitayama 0.702
6. Sungjae Im 0.696
7. Luke Clanton 0.645
8. Carson Young 0.619
9. Gary Woodland 0.574
10. Thomas Detry 0.564
11. Si Woo Kim 0.536
12. Vincent Norrman 0.505
13. Byeong Hun An 0.499
14. Luke List 0.494
15. Sami Valimaki 0.492
16. Cameron Young 0.491
17. Robert MacIntyre 0.480
18. Davis Thompson 0.460
19. Matt Fitzpatrick 0.446
20. Alex Smalley 0.444

Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 0.816
2. Min Woo Lee 0.690
3. Patrick Fishburn 0.616
4. Keith Mitchell 0.615
5. Rico Hoey 0.586
6. Kevin Yu 0.539
7. Jordan Spieth 0.500
8. Kurt Kitayama 0.446
9. Sam Stevens 0.433
10. Wyndham Clark 0.420
11. Doug Ghim 0.413
12. Corey Conners 0.411
13. Byeong Hun An 0.404
14. Maverick McNealy 0.391
15. Daniel Berger 0.385
16. Cameron Young 0.375
17. Alex Smalley 0.352
18. Sahith Theegala 0.350
19. Sungjae Im 0.344
20. Austin Eckroat 0.333

Although 20 under has only been eclipsed one time by a winner here in the last decade, low rounds can happen as evidenced by 2024 WMPO champ Nick Taylor’s round of 60 (11 under par) in Round 1 last year.

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Sepp Straka 33.68%
2. Justin Thomas 32.87
3. Matt Fitzpatrick 31.25
4. Sam Burns 31.02
5. Harry Hall 30.90
6. Robert MacIntyre 30.56
7. Sungjae Im 30.00
8. Akshay Bhatia 29.17
9. Austin Eckroat 29.17
10. Min Woo Lee 29.17
11. Nick Taylor 28.82
12. Trey Mullinax 28.70
13. Si Woo Kim 28.47
14. Camilo Villegas 28.47
15. Max Greyserman 28.15
16. Wyndham Clark 28.28
17. Corey Conners 27.78
18. Rickie Fowler 27.78
19. Rasmus Højgaard 27.78
20. J.T. Poston 27.78
21. Scottie Scheffler 27.78
22. Michael Thorbjornsen 27.78

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 27.93%
2. Keith Mitchell 25.82
3. Harry Hall 25.77
4. Sam Burns 25.69
5. Jacob Bridgeman 25.27
6. Joe Highsmith 25.15
7. Max Greyserman 25.10
8. Michael Kim 24.97
9. Wyndham Clark 24.88
10. Nick Dunlap 24.73
11. Patton Kizzire 24.62
12. Hayden Springer 24.37
13. Rico Hoey 24.33
14. Maverick McNealy 24.33
15. Chandler Phillips 24.33
16. Matti Schmid 24.28
17. Nico Echavarria 24.21
18. Charley Hoffman 24.20
19. Carson Young 24.20
20. Sam Ryder 24.19
21. Beau Hossler 24.16

On a par-71 layout, there are only three par-5s, so there is one extra par-4. Five of the par-4s are between 450 and 500 yards and two others measure 442. 

Strokes Gained Par-4s 450-500 Yards (Last 50 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 33.5
2. Joe Highsmith 27.6
3. Jordan Spieth 22.3
4. Max Greyserman 22.2
5. Daniel Berger 21.8
6. Henrik Norlander 21.6
7. Carson Young 21.4
8. Sungjae Im 20.9
9. Maverick McNealy 20.7
10. Patrick Fishburn 20.6
11. Andrew Novak 20
12. Hideki Matsuyama 18.5
13. Nick Taylor 18.4
14. Austin Eckroat 18.3
15. Patrick Rodgers 18.1
16. Luke Clanton 17.7 (36 rounds)
17. Matt Fitzpatrick 16.9
18. Matt Kuchar 15.6
19. Justin Thomas 15.1

While TPC Scottsdale is not an overly difficult course, there are some danger spots with the hazards, plus the firm and fast conditions will cause some tricky lies as balls roll through the fairways, so big numbers do lurk.

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 6.94%
2. Byeong Hun An 8.33
3. Sam Burns 8.33
4. Nate Lashley 8.33
5. Tom Hoge 8.68
6. Sepp Straka 8.68
7. Lucas Glover 9.09
8. Brice Garnett 9.26
9. Bud Cauley 9.72
10. Hideki Matsuyama 9.72
11. Keith Mitchell 9.72
12. C.T. Pan 9.72
13. Webb Simpson 9.72
14. Sam Stevens 10.07
15. Denny McCarthy 10.19
16. Justin Thomas 10.19
17. Billy Horschel 10.32
18. Rickie Fowler 10.42
19. Max Homa 10.49
20. Sam Ryder 10.65

Bogey Avoidance (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 9.85
2. Patrick Fishburn 12.02
3. Bud Cauley 12.04
4. Henrik Norlander 12.04
5. Doug Ghim 12.12
6. Greyson Sigg 12.29
7. Andrew Novak 12.47
8. Ben Silverman 12.55
9. Ben Griffin 12.64
10. Chan Kim 12.90
11. Andrew Putnam 12.92
12. Mac Meissner 12.96
13. Maverick McNealy 13.04
14. Beau Hossler 13.11
15. Hideki Matsuyama 13.29
16. Kevin Yu 13.42
17. Seamus Power 13.48
18. Nate Lashley 13.49
19. Sam Stevens 13.62
20. Kurt Kitayama 13.64

Note: Percentage of holes where player makes bogey or worse.

The greens at TPC Scottsdale are flat and fairly straightforward, so the short game is not tested as much putting as it is around the greens. 

Scrambling (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 76.67%
2. Tom Hoge 76.62
3. Bud Cauley 76.47
4. C.T. Pan 76.19
5. Byeong Hun An 76.00
6. Webb Simpson 75.00
7. Sam Stevens 74.70
8. Victor Perez 73.33
9. Charley Hoffman 72.88
10. Sam Ryder 72.22
11. Scottie Scheffler 72.22
12. Nate Lashley 71.43
13. Lucas Glover 70.91
14. Keith Mitchell 70.69
15. Patrick Fishburn 69.09
16. David Lipsky 68.89
17. Daniel Berger 68.75
18. Jacob Bridgeman 68.63
19. Mac Meissner 68.49
20. Gary Woodland 68.42

Scrambling (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 68.17
2. Henrik Norlander 66.96
3. Scottie Scheffler 66.18
4. Denny McCarthy 66.15
5. Bud Cauley 65.73
6. Maverick McNealy 65.16
7. Christian Bezuidenhout 64.93
8. Greyson Sigg 64.87
9. Robert MacIntyre 64.85
10. Mackenzie Hughes 64.73
11. Ben Silverman 64.05
12. Chan Kim 63.98
13. Seamus Power 63.96
14. Ben Griffin 63.98
15. Nate Lashley 63.75
16. Sungjae Im 63.74
17. Si Woo Kim 63.69
18. Billy Horschel 63.62
19. Chandler Phillips 63.44
20. Sam Stevens 62.95

Selections

Sam Burns (28-1, Circa Sports)

If you are going to take on Scottie Scheffler this week, then why not oppose him with one of his best friends on tour who has had some success here?

Burns has gone third (2024) and sixth (2023) here at Phoenix the last two years. 

He putted poorly on Sunday at Pebble Beach and never could move up the leaderboard, settling for a T-22 finish. However, the move away from Poa Annua greens should suit him well. 

TPC Scottsdale is a venue where Burns can attack with the driver, and he led the field here last year for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee. 

Tom Kim (33-1, FanDuel)

Another close buddy of Scheffler, Kim made a bit of a mess of the 72nd hole on Sunday at Pebble Beach to drop from T-3 to T-7. 

Returning to the blade putter paid dividends for Kim last week as he ranked in the top 10 for Strokes Gained: Putting. 

Two of his three PGA Tour victories were at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, so he is well acquainted with desert golf.

He also should relish the raucous crowds this week and feeds off that energy as evidenced by his performance at the last Presidents Cup and at the TGL. 

Sahith Theegala (44-1, Circa Sports)

Theegala has gotten off to a poor start in 2025, finishing no better than 36th in any of his four events thus far this season. 

Nevertheless, players who have played well at TPC Scottsdale in the past tend to continue to play well here, and that fits Theegala.

He has finished third (2022) and fifth (2024) here. 

Maverick McNealy (65-1, FanDuel)

McNealy finished T-6 here in Phoenix last year.

He finished T-40 at Pebble Beach because of an atypical miserable week on and around the greens, losing a combined six strokes.

However, he was fourth in last week’s field for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (Off The Tee + Approach) only behind tournament winner McIlroy, Taylor Pendrith and Scheffler. 

I’m willing to give the Las Vegas resident another chance again at a similar price to last week in what is, while still strong, a weaker field than last week’s “Signature Event.”

Kurt Kitayama (70-1, FanDuel)

Kitayama finished eighth here in Phoenix last year and was rated sixth in the field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and is 13th on the PGA Tour for the same category to start this season. 

He rated 10th on the PGA Tour last season for Strokes Gained: Approach. 

While certainly not the best putter by any stretch, Kitayama has gained over a stroke per round on the greens in eight career rounds at TPC Scottsdale. 

The former UNLV player is also adept at playing desert golf. 

Billy Horschel (70-1, SuperBook Sports)

Horschel is a regular participant in the WM Phoenix Open and has a couple of top-10s and a couple of top-25s here. 

He finished T-9 last week at Pebble Beach and carded the second-low round in Sunday’s final round. 

Like Tom Kim, his personality showed in recent weeks at the TGL and should be energized by these crowds in Phoenix. 

Min Woo Lee (75-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Lee has started 2025 with a pair of 17th-place finishes in Dubai and Pebble Beach. 

Last week at Pebble, he ranked eighth for Strokes Gained: Approach but struggled to find fairways.

Ordinarily, the driver is the best club in Lee’s bag, and he ranked fifth on the PGA Tour last season for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee. 

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