It’s getting harder to find a job, and some economists expect that trend to continue in the new year. 

Employers have pulled back on job openings sharply since the early days of the economy reopening after the pandemic (DELETE- post-pandemic days) when they couldn’t get enough workers.

In March 2022, more than two jobs were available for every unemployed worker, the most since the Department of Labor began keeping track of job openings in 2000. By September, there were only 1.09 jobs per unemployed worker, fewer than the days just before the pandemic.

Not only that, but the job finding rate—the percentage of unemployed workers who found jobs in the previous month—fell in November to its lowest since the pandemic hit. 

The pullback is partly the result of policy by the Federal Reserve. The Fed hiked interest rates in 2022, pushing up borrowing costs on all kinds of loans, aiming for a cooler job market with less upward pressure on wages. Now that they have it, the central bankers are cutting rates, hoping to stop the job market’s decline before it reaches the point where employers start laying people off in large numbers.

Layoffs Are Rare, But For How Long?

Although the unemployment rate isn’t high by historical standards, if job postings continue the downward trend, there’s a danger that employers could start actually laying off people instead of just eliminating open positions.

“While these data reflect continued employer demand and resilience in the labor market, we are approaching a point where further cooling may begin to translate into rising unemployment,” Daniel Culbertson, Allison Shrivastava, and Cory Stahle, economists at job-hunting site Indeed, wrote in a report.

The Indeed economists said the aging population and an expected decrease in immigration under Trump could also make jobs more available to other workers and hiring more challenging for employers.

“Despite the uncertainty of a new presidential administration and some signs of economic and demographic headwinds on the horizon, the economy appears well-positioned to navigate 2025,” the Indeed economists wrote.