A disastrous first 57 seconds of the second half saw Tennessee basketball’s deficit against Missouri grow to 11 points behind a pair of turnovers and a fouled three-point shooter. The Vols were in serious trouble against the SEC’s most improved team when Rick Barnes went to a lineup that flipped the game.
Jordan Gainey subbed in for Jahmai Mashack and Tennessee rolled with Zakai Zeigler, Chaz Lanier, Gainey, Igor Milicic and Felix Okpara over the next eight minutes. The Vols’ best lineup completely flipped the game. Tennessee tore off a 36-18 run to take the lead before withholding a late Missouri push to secure an 85-81 win.
That lineup that turned the tide on Wednesday night should be Tennessee’s new starting lineup with four weeks left in the regular season.
“Offensively, you get guys that are, people are afraid to leave shooters,” Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes said of the lineup postgame. “And we get guys in position where, again, they switch or hoping to be able to take advantage of those switching situations and create some of those matchups and then play out of that. But they’re concerned about shooters.
Tennessee took care of the ball and made Missouri pay defensively for its aggressive style during that stretch. And they did it in large part with three-point shooting. After a dreadful first 21 minutes offensively, Tennessee turned in its best eight minute offensive stretch of the season.
The Vols made six-of-eight three-point attempts and in turn got a number of good looks at the rim as Missouri’s defense spread out.
The only substitution Tennessee made in the 7:57 stretch was subbing Cade Phillips in for Okpara. Zeigler, Lanier, Gainey and Milicic being on the court together gives Tennessee by far its best spacing of any other lineup.
Tennessee will play at least 10 more games this season and they may not have another offensive stretch that looks that good the rest of the season. That lineup isn’t going to shoot 75% from three-point range and that hot-shooting is in large part why Tennessee scored 1.629 points per possession in its 57-point second half.
“When the ball is going in, it all looks good. I mean, if I could coach making shots, I would do this till I’m 110,” Barnes said.
But Tennessee’s success with this lineup is not a one-game thing either. Fox Sports Knoxville contributor Jordan Moore filed through the numbers on CBB Analytics ahead of the Missouri game.
Tennessee’s starting lineup of Zeigler, Lanier, Mashack, Milicic and Okpara have played 170 minutes and 267 possessions together this season. They’re posting a 105.9 offensive and an 87.9 defensive rating.
The Zeigler, Lanier, Gainey, Milicic and Okpara lineup that was so good against Missouri entered the night having played just 76 minutes and 119 possessions together. They’re posting a 128.2 offensive and an 87.7 defensive rating.
The discrepancy is all the more dramatic when you look strictly at the numbers in SEC play. Tennessee’s starting lineup has an offensive rating of just 79.6 while the lineup with Gainey has an offensive rating of 115.9.
There’s a level of over simplicity to narrowing things down to just two lineups and comparing them. Tennessee is not a deep team and needs all seven of its main rotation players to shoulder major minutes every game. And even on a team with a small rotation, the starting lineup only plays together 15-20% of the minutes on average.
Removing Jahmai Mashack from the starting lineup doesn’t mean Tennessee should stop giving him major minutes. The senior is playing 28 minutes per game this season and his versatility allows him to play in different roles and continue impacting the game.
However, the lineup that rallied Tennessee against Missouri needs to play more-and-more minutes together. And to Barnes and his staff’s credit, it is Tennessee’s most used lineup over the last five games (via KenPom) at just under seven minutes a game.
Coaches will say that who finishes a game is more important than who starts it. They’re absolutely right. But inserting Gainey into the starting lineup for Mashack would get Tennessee’s best lineup on the court far more minutes every game.
It would also help Tennessee avoid the slow offensive starts to halves that have plagued them throughout SEC play.
Barnes’ 10th Tennessee team has lost just four times and is ranked fourth nationally. This change is not a move to make because the sky is falling. But as the Vols try to find another gear entering their final eight games of the regular season, the change could spark it.
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