What an opportunity for the Iowa Hawkeyes. A lot of the media is saying how it is a disappointment for Iowa to start 3-2 this season with this roster. They would be right; more is expected of this team.

But the last time I checked, Iowa is still 3-1, and it has an opportunity to put together the best win of the year in the country, at the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Here are the reasons the Iowa Hawkeyes will win this weekend at the Horseshoe:

Schedule

With this tall task ahead, nothing can be overlooked. Iowa is coming off a bye week. Despite the obvious advantage of being well rested and getting players back from injury, this also bodes well for the number of reps for the offense.

With a new offensive coordinator this season in Tim Lester, improvements have been made throughout the season implementing what he wants to see from all parts of the offense. This includes Kaleb Brown, who Lester alluded to not running all the correct routes expected of him in the game setting, explaining why he has not seen the amount of time on the field fans expected of him. Let’s hope the bye week has allowed Brown to become a bigger part of the offense, Iowa could use his playmaking ability.

From Ohio State’s side, it is entering a tough four-game stretch that begins with Iowa. The following three weeks they are at Oregon, at home against Nebraska, and then on the road at Penn State. It would not be too surprising if they are caught looking ahead in the schedule, especially to a road game at Oregon that many expect to be a possible look-ahead to the Big Ten Championship and play-in to a top four seed in the College Football Playoff.

Halftime Adjustments

Being able to show something different in the second half has been a staple for Iowa this year, scoring 92 of 128 total points this season in the final two quarters. I am not sure of the balance between adjustments in X’s and O’s and the mental switch going on in the locker room at halftime, but for whatever reason the Hawkeyes have been able to dominate teams at the line of scrimmage in the second half. Keeping this game close enough in the first half to give themselves a chance in the second will be imperative.

Run Defense

Iowa comes into this game with the fourth best rushing defense in the country, giving up 62 yards per game on the ground and 2.4 yards per carry. The third best rush defense? The Ohio State Buckeyes, allowing 61.8 rushing yards per game and 1.8 yards per carry. Each team will be the best rushing offense the other has seen. Iowa has faced a slightly better rushing attack in Iowa State and Minnesota versus Ohio State’s schedule so far. This part of the game is the biggest question mark and will be a large part of the time-of-possession winner. While Ohio State has not needed a large advantage in the clock control area this year, winning the season TOP 120:01-119:59, everyone knows how explosive their receivers are and the big plays they can create. This will be a challenge for the Iowa secondary, but they will surely have been studying this portion of the game during this two-week preparation. 

Limiting Ohio State’s run game and forcing Will Howard to do more than he has had to so far this season will be a major key for Iowa.

Kaleb Johnson

It is always nice to have a Heisman Watch candidate on your team. Iowa is 10th in the country in rush yards per game, averaging 250.3. Ohio State is 14th, averaging 227.0. Iowa has a slight edge here, but Ohio State has been using their dynamic backfield of Treveyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, while Iowa has mostly relied on Kaleb Johnson. It will be interesting to see how many carries the Hawkeyes give to Johnson, and how much Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson are able to contribute. If Iowa wants to be in this game late, those two will have to shoulder some of the load, as you do not want to give Johnson 40 carries with seven games left in the year. On the other hand, Iowa will need to leave it all on the table for this season-defining game.

With this contest expected to heavily involve the run from both teams, the game clock could run out quickly. This would seem to favor Iowa, as long as it is able to turn in a stellar defensive performance, and limit red zone drives by Ohio State to three points.

This is what being a fan is all about, the hope that comes with playing these kinds of teams with these kinds of stakes. Do not immediately write this off as a loss. 4-1 is not impossible.

There is a reason they play the games.