Baltimore Ravens: A slightly depleted roster with an offensive line that could easily become a liability lets Lamar Jackson down, or Jackson’s pre-2023 injury issues perk up again in a division without a sub-par team.

Cincinnati Bengals: Another injury to quarterback Joe Burrow could absolutely land Cincinnati in the No. 4 spot, but it’s hard to imagine much else leading to such a shockingly bad result in Cincinnati.

Cleveland Browns: Quarterback Deshaun Watson is a wild card who hasn’t participated in a full season since 2020, and he doesn’t have the weapons that reside in Baltimore and Cincinnati. Plus, the Steelers continue to have a high ceiling thanks to the Russell Wilson/Justin Fields potential and a talented defensive core.

Pittsburgh Steelers: They haven’t had a losing season since 2003, but they could be due with Cleveland getting Watson back for what should be a full campaign. If Wilson or Fields can’t get it together, they likely finish last for the first time this century.