What will be perhaps the most important series of the 2024 MLB regular season takes place this week at Truist Park. The Atlanta Braves will host the NL East rival New York Mets for three games and there might only be one postseason spot for these two teams. One will play baseball in October, that is a certainty, and the other’s season could end with Game 162 this coming Sunday. And with a potential hurricane bearing down on the region, stakes have never been higher.

Here are the National League wild-card standings:

1. San Diego Padres: 90-66 (+3.5 GB)
2. New York Mets: 87-69 (+0.5 GB)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: 87-70
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4. Atlanta Braves: 85-71 (1.5 GB)

Every NL team behind Atlanta has been eliminated from the wild-card race. It’s a four-team race for three spots with the season winding down. This week’s series with the Mets is the Braves’ best chance — maybe their last chance — to gain meaningful ground in a short period of time. It’s also a chance for the Mets to bury Atlanta and effectively end their season.

“You knew it a couple weeks ago, right? That series is probably gonna help decide this thing,” Braves catcher Sean Murphy said over the weekend (via the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). “We know what we’re up against and we know what we gotta do.”

Two years ago, the Mets went to Truist Park for the second-to-last series of the regular season, got swept in three games, and lost first place in the NL East. The Braves are hoping for a repeat. It might be the only way they get a wild-card spot. Here are the details for this week’s Braves vs. Mets series in Atlanta. Select games can be streamed on fuboTV (try for free). 

Both teams are starting their three best pitchers this week and it’s not a coincidence. The Mets used Monday’s off-day to bump Jose Quintana’s start back from Tuesday to Friday, and moved Severino, Peterson, and Manaea up so they could face the Braves. Sale is the NL Cy Young favorite and Manaea has done a fine Sale impersonation since copying him and lowering his arm slot.

The Braves and Mets both had an off-day Monday, so their bullpens will be rested — or as rested as they can be this time of year — when the series begins Tuesday. Here now are five things to know going into this week’s ultra-important series at Truist Park.

1. Clinching scenarios

Let’s get the easy stuff out of the way first: Atlanta cannot clinch a postseason berth during this series with the Mets. Even if they sweep the Mets and the D-backs lose their games to the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday and Wednesday (they’re off Thursday), the Braves cannot clinch a wild-card spot this series. They have to wait until the weekend even in the best-case scenario.

As for the Mets, it’s pretty simple. Win two games this series, and they’re in the postseason. The D-backs will play a role in deciding New York’s exact wild-card seed, and that may not be decided until Game 162, but take two games against the Braves and the Mets are in. The Braves won’t necessarily be eliminated — they could still pass Arizona — but the Mets are in with two wins.

2. Lindor could return this series

Francisco Lindor, New York’s MVP candidate, has not played since Sept. 15 because of a lingering back issue that is bad enough to require a facet joint injection into his spine (ouch) over the weekend. Lindor is not in Tuesday’s lineup, though he is optimistic he will play again this season, even if it is unlikely he will do so pain-free.

Of course, the Mets have done just fine without Lindor. They’re 6-1 since Lindor last played thanks in large part to rookie Luisangel Acuña, Ronald’s younger brother, who stepped in at shortstop. Acuña is 9 for 22 (.409) with two doubles, a triple, and three home runs since Lindor went down. The Mets got Acuña from the Texas Rangers in last summer’s Max Scherzer trade.

Also, veteran gloveman Jose Iglesias has stepped into the leadoff spot since Lindor last played and is 14 for 30 (.467) with two doubles and a homer in that role. Iglesias took over as the everyday second baseman when an errant pitch broke Jeff McNeil’s wrist two weeks ago. Now he’s subbing in at leadoff, and he’s been incredible. The 34-year-old is hitting .337/.381/.459 in 2024.

Acuña and Iglesias have been excellent during Lindor’s absence, but clearly, the Mets are at their best when their MVP candidate is leading off and playing shortstop. Lindor could return Wednesday or Thursday. It’s a possibility, but not a certainty. If he can, great. If not, then the Mets will lean on Acuña and Iglesias to continue their recent excellence for another few games.

3. Thursday’s game is a makeup game

This was originally a two-game series. Thursday’s series finale is a makeup game of the April 10 rainout, and good gravy, think how much things have changed since then! Acuña — Ronald, not Luisangel — was healthy on April 10. So were Lindor and Austin Riley. Murphy was on the injured list at the time. Manaea, Thursday’s scheduled starter, had not yet lowered his arm slot and morphed into an ace. Iglesias and Mark Vientos were in Triple-A. On and on we could go.

The regular season is a long 162-game grind and so much has changed since this game was originally on the books. And you know what? That’s baseball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes it rains. On paper, I would say the rainout favors the Mets. They’ll have Iglesias and Vientos in the lineup and this Manaea on the mound Thursday, and Braves won’t have Acuña and Riley in the lineup. But, this is why they play the games. “On paper” means nothing.

4. Who’s hot, who’s not

Baseball is a sport of hot and cold streaks. Day-to-day and week-to-week consistency is a myth. As such, several players head into this week’s series swinging the bat better than others. Here are the hottest Mets in September:

Acuña and Iglesias have been excellent as well this month and especially lately. All five of Alvarez’s September home runs have come in his last 10 games, and Taylor has been so good that he’s played almost every single day down the stretch. He’s started eight of the last 10 games while rotating between the three outfield spots.

On the other end of the spectrum, JD Martinez has been just dreadful in September (.068/.180/.091), and is now on the short side of a DH platoon with Jesse Winker. Vientos has struck out in close to 40% of his plate appearances in September and is having a tough month as well. Aside from his game-winning homer Sunday, Brandon Nimmo has been quiet at the plate the last few weeks.

Here now are three Braves players who’ve swung the bat well in September:

Soler’s outfield defense has been poor since joining the Braves, though his bat is making up for it this month. Marcell Ozuna has been great in September as well — he’s been great all year, really — slashing .329/.417/.425. As our R.J. Anderson wrote last week, the Braves have gotten really nice production from injury replacements like Ramón Laureano and Whit Merrifield.

Atlanta’s September laggers include both catchers, Murphy (.079/.182/.184) and Travis d’Arnaud (.171/.310/.200), and shortstop Orlando Arcia (.160/.213/.267). Arcia has been a drain on the offense all year. The Braves figured they had enough offense to carry his light bat this season, but injuries have made his lack of production a bit more costly.

5. What’s next?

This is the final week of the regular season and this Braves vs. Mets series is each team’s second-to-last series of the year. After this, the Mets head to Milwaukee to play a Brewers team that has already clinched the NL Central and still has a chance to get a Wild Card Series bye. Their priority is avoiding injury and putting themselves in the best possible position for October, not chasing every last regular season win, but don’t expect them to roll over with the bye still in play.

The Braves, meanwhile, stay home to play three games against the Kansas City Royals this weekend. The Royals are in their own postseason race — they’re a game up on a wild-card spot — so, on paper, the final series is advantage Mets. They’ll play a Brewers team that has already won the division and isn’t going all-out to win every last game while the Braves get a desperate Royals team. There’s a chance — a small one, but still a chance — Game 162 between the Braves and Royals this coming Sunday is a win or go home situation for both teams. Wouldn’t that be fun?