Where Memphis basketball stands in updated March Madness bracket predictions

Posted by author March 4, 2025 Basketball

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Memphis basketball hasn’t done anything in recent days to damage its March Madness outlook − most agree on that much.

Beyond that, though, opinions vary. Some bracketologists believe the 16th-ranked Tigers (24-5, 14-2 AAC) have created positive momentum from a seeding standpoint thanks to recent wins over Rice and UAB. Others are still bullish that Penny Hardaway’s team is doing nothing more than treading water.

Memphis has two regular-season games remaining, starting with UTSA (11-17, 5-11) in San Antonio on Tuesday (6 p.m., ESPN+). The first-place Tigers can clinch the No. 1 seed at next week’s AAC tournament and at least a share of the regular-season conference championship with a win against the Roadrunners. If Memphis beats UTSA and wins against South Florida Friday (8 p.m., ESPN2) at FedExForum, the Tigers would be AAC regular-season champs for the first time.

Here is a cross-section of Memphis’ NCAA Tournament projections.

Memphis basketball March Madness bracket projections

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, who published his most recent projection Tuesday morning, keeps the Tigers as a 7-seed. This week, Lunardi predicts Memphis will face 10-seed Baylor in Raleigh as part of the Midwest Regional, which runs through Indianapolis. If that plays out and the Tigers win, Lunardi projects they would face the Alabama-South Alabama winner.

CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm projects Memphis will be a No. 6 seed in the Midwest. Palm has Memphis facing a First Four winner from the group of Xavier, Arkansas, Boise State and Baylor in Milwaukee on the opening weekend. Palm projects 3-seed Michigan and 14-seed Northern Colorado as potential second-round opponents.

Bracketville’s Dave Ommen keeps Memphis on the 6-seed line in his latest bracket, which pits the Tigers against Arkansas or Nebraska in Wichita (South Region) − with Wisconsin and Utah Valley as potential second-round opponents. Meanwhile, On3’s James Fletcher III has the Tigers as a 7-seed and predicts they will face Georgia in Cleveland.

The Tigers remain a projected 6-seed by USA TODAY, which has them facing Arkansas in Denver in the first round.

Here is where Memphis is slotted by an assortment of other bracket projections that have been updated since the Tigers lost to Wichita State last week:

Memphis basketball’s NCAA Tournament résumé

The Tigers are a combined 11-3 in games versus Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. They are now 13-2 in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games. Their Quad 3 setbacks have come at the hands of Arkansas State and Temple.

Memphis’ results-based metrics are still strong: No. 10 in KPI (Kevin Pauga Index − up from No. 13 last week), No. 25 in wins above bubble (up one spot week-over-week) and No. 16 in strength of record (up 10 spots from two weeks ago).

On the computer metrics-based front: the Tigers are 45th in the NET (up four spots from this time two weeks ago), 47th in KenPom and 56th in Bart Torvik.

Memphis basketball’s NCAA Tournament history under Penny Hardaway

The Tigers’ only NCAA Tournament win under Hardaway came in their first appearance of his tenure. In 2022, Memphis defeated Boise State in Portland before getting eliminated by No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga.

The next year, Memphis lost to FAU in controversial fashion in the first round.

Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com, follow him @munzly on X, and sign up for the Memphis Basketball Insider text group.