Where is Michigan State basketball in March Madness bracketology?

Posted by author March 3, 2025 Basketball

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One week remains in the regular season. And Michigan State basketball is right where Tom Izzo almost always has his program.

With an NCAA tournament berth all but assured. And in the lead for a Big Ten title.

The Spartans could wrap up a share of the league crown Wednesday if Michigan loses at home to Maryland. If that happens, Izzo could claim his fourth outright championship with a win Thursday at Iowa.

There is more at stake beyond the regular season in the coming days, though: a potential No. 1 seed in March Madness.

The Spartans (24-5, 15-3 Big Ten) continue to roll with a five-game win streak all coming against Quad 1 opponents, and they are angling for Izzo’s fifth top seed in what will be his record 27th straight Big Dance appearance. MSU’s last No. 1 seed came in 2012, a run that ended with a Sweet 16 loss to Louisville; the other three (1999, 2000, 2001) resulted in three straight Final Four appearances and Izzo’s only national title.

A loss to the struggling Hawkeyes (15-14, 6-12) could prove catastrophic to that pursuit for one of the top four spots on Selection Sunday. But if the Spartans win to secure at least a share of the Big Ten’s regular-season title in Iowa City, they will return home with an opportunity to bolster their case for a No. 1 seed with a season sweep of the Wolverines (22-7, 14-4), whose league title hopes are fading after losing Sunday at home to Illinois. Maryland (22-7, 12-6) provides another challenge Wednesday.

The importance of this Sunday’s rivalry renewal vs. Michigan will be known by Friday morning. And then comes the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis, where the Spartans won’t play until Day 3 in the quarterfinal on March 14, needing three more victories to extend Izzo’s tourney title record to seven and secure the league’s automatic berth to the NCAA tournament on Selection Sunday.

Let’s look at MSU’s résumé entering the week:

Michigan State basketball March Madness bracketology

There are a number of criteria the NCAA tournament selection committee looks at in order to make its assessment in addition to subjective assessments like the “eyeball test.” Among them:

Record: The team’s overall record, conference record and nonconference record.

Strength of schedule: The strength of the teams the team played against.

Head-to-head results: The results of games between the teams being compared.

Conference championships: The number of conference championships won.

Common opponents: The results of games against common opponents.

Adjusted Net Efficiency (NET): A measure of a team’s overall performance during the regular season.

Team Value Index: A results-oriented component of the NET that ranks teams based on who they beat and where they played.

Rating Percentage Index (RPI): A computer program that calculates a team’s winning percentage, opponents’ success and opponents’ strength of schedule.

Michigan State NET rankings: No. 11 (began last week No. 14)

All rankings through Sunday’s games.

Quad 1 record: 10-3

Quad 2 record: 5-2

Quad 3 record: 4-0

Quad 4 record: 5-0

Michigan State KenPom rankings: No. 9 (began last week No. 10)

All rankings through Sunday’s games.

Offensive efficiency: No. 32

Defensive efficiency: No. 5

Michigan State bracketology projections

USA TODAY: 2-seed in Midwest Region: Indianapolis (as of Feb. 28)

ESPN: 2-seed in South Region: Atlanta (as of Feb. 28)

CBS: 2-seed in South Region: Atlanta (as of March 2)

Fox Sports: 2-seed (as of March 2)

On3: 2-seed in South Region: Atlanta (as of March 2)

BracketMatrix.com: 2-seed (as of March 2)

Michigan State basketball schedule this week

Thursday: at Iowa (15-14, 6-12), 8 p.m., FS1, Iowa City.

Sunday: Michigan (22-7, 14-4), noon, CBS, East Lansing.

Michigan State basketball scores last week

Feb. 26: 58-55 road win at Maryland – The Spartans trailed by two at halftime in a game that went back and forth all night. The Terrapins had a chance in the waning seconds after a Jaxon Kohler missed layup, but Ja’Kobi Gillespie’s 3-point attempt clanged off the rim. It kicked hard to Kohler who flipped it to Tre Holloman, who launched a 60-foot swish for a 3-pointer to win it as the buzzer sounded. The Spartans overcame another poor shooting performance by smothering Maryland to 4-for-20 from 3-point range and outrebounding the Terps, 45-33, and got 10 second-chance points on 13 offensive boards to Maryland’s zero on just four offensive rebounds. Jase Richardson led a balanced scoring attack with 15 points as MSU also had a 23-0 bench scoring advantage.

March 2: 71-62 home win over No. 11 Wisconsin – As they did at Maryland, the Spartans got points from all 10 players in the regular rotation for the 18th time this season. Jaden Akins broke a shooting slump with four first-half 3-pointers and finished with a game-high 19 points, but it was the senior’s defense on Badgers star John Tonje (3-for-13, 11 points) that made the biggest impact. Richardson added 11 points, while Kohler set a career high with 16 rebounds, tying his personal best seven on the offensive glass, and added 10 points for his seventh double-double this season. It was MSU’s fifth straight win and sixth in the past seven games.

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.

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