Alabama’s stay at No. 1 was fleeting, but if the College Football Playoff selection committee were meeting today, the Tide’s fall might not be as far as you would expect after their stunning loss to Vanderbilt, which was a 22.5-point underdog.

The reality is this would be quite the conundrum in the committee meeting room and require a significant conversation: How much does the win against a top-five Georgia team outweigh a bad loss to unranked, two-loss Vanderbilt? Alabama is now a complex character, with the best win in the country and one of the worst losses. (The Tide can thank Notre Dame for earning the dubious distinction of the worst, at home to Northern Illinois.)

But now Alabama has joined the Irish in the one-loss club — which is growing larger each Saturday. The 12-team CFP is certainly more forgiving, but the teams that began October with a loss are still under pressure to earn statement wins for the rest of the season. If they don’t win their conference championship game, these losses will be a part of the debate as the committee determines the seven at-large teams.

Here’s a look at how the top one-loss playoff contenders stack up heading into the midpoint of the season, followed by the weekly prediction of what the committee’s top 12 might look like if its rankings were released today.

Remember, this is NOT a projection of what the rankings will look like on Selection Day. Rather, it’s a snapshot of who’s in the driver’s seat now, based on what they have done to this point. The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from this ranking as well. The top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.

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Ranking the one-loss contenders
Projecting the Top 12

Top 10 one-loss contenders

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1)

The loss: at Vanderbilt, 40-35, Saturday.

How to overcome it in the committee meeting room: Win the SEC championship and earn an automatic bid OR … keep the same record as Georgia and earn some style points against opponents like South Carolina, Missouri and Auburn. As long as Alabama and Georgia have the same record — and Alabama pulls itself back into championship form — it will be very difficult for the committee to disregard the head-to-head result between the teams. If Alabama loses at Tennessee, though, or plays poorly in a close game at Mizzou, the committee could always bump the Tide down in spite of the Georgia win.

2. Georgia Bulldogs (4-1)

The loss: at Alabama, 41-34, Sept. 28

How to overcome it in the committee meeting room: Win the SEC championship and earn an automatic bid OR … go at least 2-1 against Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee. Georgia could get in as a two-loss SEC runner-up. The Bulldogs still have plenty of opportunities to impress the committee, and it would be ideal for Georgia if Clemson won the ACC because the committee would use the Dawgs’ win over the Tigers to help justify an at-large bid if Georgia doesn’t win the SEC.

3. Tennessee Volunteers (4-1)

The loss: at Arkansas, 19-14, Saturday

How to overcome it in the committee meeting room: Win the SEC championship and earn an automatic bid OR … run the table and finish as a two-loss SEC runner-up OR … split with Alabama and Georgia, finishing as a two-loss team, and hope that your résumé trumps other at-large contenders. If Tennessee can beat Bama or Georgia — and that team goes on to win the SEC — the Vols would have a huge edge over the other contenders in the debate.

4. Clemson Tigers (4-1)

The loss: vs. Georgia, 34-3, Aug. 31

How to overcome it in the committee meeting room: Win the ACC championship and earn an automatic bid OR … run the table and possibly get in as a two-loss ACC runner-up, along with Miami. Clemson’s biggest problem is the rest of the ACC. The Tigers might not have a win against a ranked opponent for the entire regular season, so they have to avoid an upset on their way to Charlotte.

5. Ole Miss Rebels (5-1)

The loss: vs. Kentucky, 20-17, Sept. 28

How to overcome it in the committee meeting room: Win the SEC championship and earn an automatic bid OR … finish as a two-loss SEC runner-up OR … go at least 2-1 against LSU, Oklahoma and Georgia and hope that’s enough to earn an at-large bid as a two-loss team. Here’s one more way: Beat Georgia and have a regular-season win against the eventual SEC champs. If Ole Miss lost at LSU, but beat Oklahoma and Georgia — and the Dawgs won the SEC? That should do it.

6. Boise State Broncos (4-1)

The loss: at Oregon, 37-34, Sept. 7

How to overcome it in the committee meeting room: Win the Mountain West Conference and finish as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.

7. LSU Tigers (4-1)

The loss: vs. USC, 27-20, Sept. 1

How to overcome it in the committee meeting room: Win the SEC and earn an automatic bid OR … avoid any upsets to unranked opponents AND go at least 3-1 against Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. If LSU drops two of those and finishes as a three-loss team, wins against Nicholls, UCLA and South Alabama aren’t going to help it earn an at-large spot.

8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1)

The loss: vs. Northern Illinois, 16-14, Sept. 7

How to overcome it in the committee meeting room: Run the table, look like a contender in the process, hope Texas A&M continues to roll (bolstering the Irish’s win over the Aggies) and hope some other opponents, such as Army, Navy and USC, finish in the selection committee’s top 25 on Selection Day. It didn’t help the Irish that Louisville lost Saturday, as that was one of Notre Dame’s best wins. As an independent, Notre Dame’s only path to the playoff is through one of the seven at-large bids.

9. Kansas State Wildcats (4-1)

The loss: at BYU, 38-9, Sept. 21

How to overcome it in the committee meeting room: Win the Big 12 championship and earn an automatic spot. Even if K-State runs the table but finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, the selection committee would likely exclude the Wildcats from the field because of their overall schedule strength.

10. Oklahoma Sooners (4-1)

The loss: vs. Tennessee, 25-15, Sept. 21

How to overcome it in the committee meeting room: Win the SEC championship and earn an automatic bid OR … get multiple road wins. It’s going to take more than a win against rival Texas, as evidenced by last season, even if the Longhorns are the No. 1 team in the country. If OU beats Texas, it still has to face Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama and LSU. If the Sooners are going to play their way into this race, they’re going to have to beat ranked opponents on the road.

Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: The selection committee doesn’t often change teams’ spots when they have a bye week, but Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt opened the door to give Texas a promotion, and the Longhorns are certainly talented enough to hold the top spot. The eye test certainly outweighs the résumé to this point, but the committee does consider injuries to key players and will reward the Longhorns for continuing to look like a playoff contender without injured starting quarterback Quinn Ewers.

Why they could be lower: The Michigan win is the lone highlight. Home wins against Colorado State, UTSA and Louisiana-Monroe aren’t going to impress the committee, even though they were dominant wins. And a double-digit win against a four-loss Mississippi State team isn’t much better.

Need to know: The Longhorns’ two toughest games are in the next two weeks — against rival Oklahoma and Georgia. Remember, Texas got into the four-team CFP last year in spite of its loss to the Sooners, but the regular-season head-to-head win against the eventual SEC champs (Alabama) played a critical role in that. If Texas loses to OU again, the same scenario could play out — this time with Georgia.

Why they could be here: The selection committee likes statistical measures that show how a team fares against its opponents’ strengths (relative offense and relative defense), and Ohio State was able to score against one of the nation’s best defenses Saturday against Iowa. The Hawkeyes were the most difficult opponent Ohio State has faced to date, and the Buckeyes were able to avoid an upset with a dominant second half. The committee also recognizes star power, and another spectacular one-handed touchdown from freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith was just a fraction of what was on display in the second half. Ohio State’s loaded roster would help compensate for its schedule strength in the committee meeting room, but at this point the schedule keeps the Buckeyes behind Texas.

Why they could be lower: Iowa is the only opponent with a winning record — and only the second power conference team — that Ohio State has defeated.

Need to know: Ohio State’s true playoff potential will be revealed over the next three games, including road trips against top-10 opponents Oregon and Penn State. If Ohio State loses at Oregon, it will be under tremendous pressure to win at Penn State, because if the Buckeyes go 0-2 in those games, the best wins they could come up with would be against Indiana and Michigan. While those currently are ranked teams, both games are at home — and what matters is if they are still ranked on Selection Day. If Ohio State loses to Oregon and wins the Big Ten, it’s a moot point. If Ohio State beats Oregon but loses to the Ducks in the Big Ten championship game, a regular-season win against the conference champs will still push it into the field, as long as the rest of its résumé merits inclusion.

Why they could be here: The selection committee would have a very difficult time ignoring the head-to-head win against Georgia, which remains the best win in the country. If the rankings were released today, it’s very likely Alabama would be one spot above Georgia, and nobody behind Georgia has given the committee any reasons to move them up above the Bulldogs. So here we are. The conversation around the table wouldn’t be easy, but the committee would likely justify this ranking by saying the Tide’s loss at Vanderbilt was a stunning upset on the road one week after a difficult and emotional win against a top-five team. That doesn’t mean at some point in the season the committee won’t have a different view, but at this point, with Alabama and Georgia having the same records and just one week removed from their matchup, this is where they’d probably land.

Why they could be lower: It’s a subjective system, and while the head-to-head result is one of the tiebreakers used to compare teams with similar records, it’s not weighted. There could be committee members who think Alabama isn’t better than Georgia after the loss to Vanderbilt, but the committee chair would remind them of their protocol.

Need to know: Alabama still has multiple opportunities to improve its playoff résumé, with games against Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma, all on the road. The selection committee will want to see at least one quality road win beyond the Sept. 14 trip to Wisconsin.

Why they could be here: The Bulldogs’ win against Clemson continues to boost their résumé as the Tigers continue to roll, but Georgia is stuck behind Alabama because of the head-to-head tiebreaker — at least for now. Georgia rebounded with a double-digit home win against a struggling Auburn team, and while it wasn’t always pretty, the Bulldogs avoided any sense of an upset. Georgia’s narrow 13-12 win at Kentucky also looks more impressive now that the Wildcats have defeated Ole Miss.

Why they could be higher: This is where the subjectivity of the selection committee comes into play. There could always be committee members who vote Alabama lower than Georgia in spite of the head-to-head. But would there be enough of them? Knowing the committee’s history, it’s unlikely at this point.

Need to know: The Bulldogs should win at home Saturday against Mississippi State, setting up the showdown at Texas on Oct. 19. If Georgia suffers a second SEC loss before November, it will probably be playing for an at-large bid unless it gets some help and finds a way into the conference championship game. A second loss wouldn’t eliminate Georgia, but the Bulldogs still face Ole Miss and Tennessee in November.

Why they could be here: The Vols’ high-flying offense has been humbled in each of the past two games after playing more difficult competition, and it was too little, too late at unranked Arkansas on Saturday night. While the Week 2 win against NC State has lost its luster, the committee will still acknowledge that neutral site win in addition to a true road win against Oklahoma. The committee would also recognize Tennessee’s stingy defense and that the Vols’ receiving corps was banged up against Arkansas. The loss to the Razorbacks also wasn’t as bad as Bama’s loss to Vandy.

Why they could be lower: Some committee members might value an undefeated record more and give Oregon or Penn State a boost. If the committee has Tennessee lower, it would be more of an indictment of Oklahoma and the Vols’ recent offensive struggles than a reward for Oregon and Penn State.

Need to know: This will be settled on the field Oct. 19, when Tennessee hosts Alabama. If Alabama loses — and Georgia still only has one loss — that would make it much easier for the committee to disregard the Tide-Dawgs head-to-head. If Alabama wins, the pressure will be on the Vols to beat Georgia on Nov. 16. If they don’t, their résumé probably won’t be strong enough to get in as a three-loss at-large team.

Why they could be here: The committee members would reward Penn State for its strong defense, dependable quarterback play and two respectable wins against West Virginia and Illinois. It’s going to be hard for the Nittany Lions to move up this week, though, after a ho-hum game against a UCLA team that is 0-3 in Big Ten play, especially when some of the teams ranked above them played tougher opponents and some were on the road.

Why they could be lower: Penn State has had home-field advantage for four straight games and met just one ranked opponent (Illinois) during that stretch.

Need to know: Penn State is about to enter its season-defining stretch, with back-to-back road trips to USC and Wisconsin, followed by a home game against Ohio State. The selection committee will likely want to see Penn State go 2-1 at worst over that span. If the Nittany Lions lose to USC and Ohio State, it’s going to be much harder for the committee to justify Penn State in an at-large bid if its best wins are against Illinois and West Virginia. The 12-team format is more forgiving, but the committee members still want to see statement wins on contenders’ résumés.

Why they could be here: The Ducks are 2-0 in their first season in the Big Ten, but against teams that are a combined 4-7. The best win was Sept. 7 against Boise State, which is in the lead for a spot in the playoff as the top Group of 5 team. The committee members will value that, along with two road wins, in contrast to Miami (one spot below), which spent all of September in its home state.

Why they could be lower: Oregon has shown some vulnerabilities, and while the Ducks have made noticeable strides since their pedestrian performance in the season-opening win against Idaho, there’s still room for improvement. Oregon made some critical mistakes early Friday night against Michigan State, such as Dillon Gabriel‘s interception in the end zone in the first quarter, and a second interception in the red zone in the second quarter.

Need to know: Oregon will host Ohio State on Saturday in what will be its most difficult game of the regular season. A win would put the Ducks in the lead in the Big Ten race, but Oregon and Ohio State could face each other again in the Big Ten championship game. If Oregon were to beat the Buckeyes at home, but lose to them in the conference title game, it would almost certainly earn one of the seven at-large bids, even with two losses. To be able to claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big Ten champs would give Oregon’s playoff résumé something few if any other teams in the country could claim. The committee has used such wins against eventual conference champs in the past to help justify playoff selections. The same holds true for the flip side if Ohio State were to beat Oregon on Saturday and the Ducks went on to win the Big Ten. The difference is that Ohio State still has a Nov. 2 trip to Penn State in addition to its rivalry game against Michigan — a common opponent for the Ducks.

Why they could be here: The Canes battled back from a double-digit second-half deficit to avoid what would have been a devastating loss to Cal, but it’s the second straight week they have played poorly. Miami had a controversial home win against Virginia Tech, and still doesn’t have a win against a ranked opponent. Still, the selection committee would recognize that this week’s cross-country road trip was the Canes’ first game outside their home state, and they also had a true road win in their season opener against rival Florida. As much as the Gators have struggled, they’re currently 3-2.

Why they could be lower: Five of their first six games were in their home state against unranked opponents, including two from the Group of 5 and one FCS team.

Need to know: Miami doesn’t face Clemson during the regular season, and with Louisville’s loss to SMU, the Canes might not face a ranked opponent during the regular season. If they don’t win the ACC and are competing for an at-large spot, that will be a big focus of the committee — along with pedestrian performances like they’ve had against Cal and Virginia Tech.

Why they could be here: Since losing its season opener to Georgia, Clemson has reeled off four straight wins in convincing fashion, including its first true road win Saturday at Florida State. While other contenders have suffered upsets and struggled to find consistency, the Tigers are improving every week and the offense seems to have found its groove while the defense remains one of the best in the country. While the season-opening loss to the Bulldogs was lopsided, it remains a loss to a top-five contender, which will lessen the blow a bit in the committee meeting room.

Why they could be lower: Clemson’s four-game winning streak has come mainly at home against unranked opponents who each have at least three losses (FSU now has five).

Need to know: If Louisville falls out of the Top 25 after its loss to SMU, Clemson might not have any regular-season wins against ranked opponents this season (maybe Pitt sneaks in?). If Clemson doesn’t win the ACC, that will be a part of the discussion in the committee meeting room — unless the Tigers continue to dominate their opponents and leave no doubt they’re a playoff team in spite of being in a weak league.

Why they could be here: The home loss to Kentucky is still weighing them down in the playoff pecking order, but the Rebels rebounded in a strong way at South Carolina to show the committee they’re still a contender. Their biggest issue so far is that South Carolina is the first power conference opponent with a winning record they’ve defeated. Even though the Gamecocks aren’t ranked, the committee will still value a road win against an SEC team above .500. Bottom line: Ole Miss avoided what could have been a devastating loss heading into its toughest stretch of the season. Instead, it left no doubt it was the better team.

Why they could be higher: On a day when quarterback Jaxson Dart wasn’t at his best, the defense held South Carolina scoreless for three quarters. With the exception of the Kentucky game, Ole Miss has been one of the most complete teams in the country. Typically, playoff teams are among the best in the nation at both scoring offense and defense.

Need to know: By the time the selection committee releases its first ranking of the season Nov. 5, Ole Miss will have played at LSU, home against Oklahoma and at Arkansas. It’s a double-edged sword because that run could boost Ole Miss in — or knock the Rebels out. If they go 0-2 against LSU and Oklahoma, they will almost certainly need to beat Georgia to have a prayer at an at-large spot, and even that might not be enough.

Why they could be here: BYU’s win at SMU looks even better after the Mustangs beat Louisville on their home turf Saturday, and the head-to-head win against K-State is significant, especially after K-State’s win against Oklahoma State was devalued Saturday when the Cowboys suffered their third straight loss.

Why they could be lower: BYU almost lost to four-loss Baylor before its bye week, and wins against a 1-4 Wyoming team and an FCS opponent could hold them back even more.

Need to know: If BYU wins the Big 12 in its second season in the league, it will earn a spot in the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. But if BYU as Big 12 champ is ranked outside of the committee’s top 12 — and so is the fifth highest-ranked conference champion — then those two teams would displace the committee’s No. 11 and No. 12-ranked teams on Selection Day.

Why they could be here: There is such a thing as a “good loss” in the committee meeting room and Boise State’s 37-34 defeat at Oregon on Sept. 7 qualifies. It’s arguably even better now than LSU’s loss to USC, as the Trojans just suffered their second loss, falling at Minnesota. Boise State has been one of the most consistent teams in the country, has a decent win against Washington State and has elite talent in Ashton Jeanty that will legitimize their playoff hopes in the eyes of the committee.

Why they could be higher: This is a very talented team that nearly beat Oregon in Autzen Stadium. While Washington State is unranked, it is 4-1 — so that win will matter to the committee. And they’ve defeated lesser opponents without any hint of an upset, something most contenders ranked above them can’t say.

Need to know: Boise State and UNLV are both in the Mountain West Conference and face each other Oct. 25, a Friday night game that will reveal the league’s top contender for the 12-team playoff.