Where Arkansas basketball ranks in March Madness bracketology entering regular-season finale

Posted by author March 7, 2025 Basketball

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Arkansas basketball enters its regular-season finale against Mississippi State coming off a crucial road win.

The Razorbacks (18-12, 7-10 SEC) went to Nashville and came away with a 90-77 win over red-hot Vanderbilt. The Commodores had won three straight games over ranked teams before a road loss to the Hogs.

Senior Day against the Bulldogs presents another opportunity to build Arkansas’ March Madness résumé. As of Friday morning, Mississippi State sits 33rd in the NET Rankings and 32nd in KenPom. An Arkansas triumph would represent a Quad 2 victory, where the Hogs are 2-3 on the year.

Until then, here are the latest Bracketology projections for the Hogs, with all forecasts updated as of March 7.

Arkansas basketball NCAA tournament projections

ESPN: Joe Lunardi says that the Razorbacks are the last team in the field to receive a bye, projecting Arkansas to be a No. 11 seed and face No. 6 St. Mary’s in the first round. That matchup would take place in Milwaukee, with the winner facing No. 3 Wisconsin or No. 14 Chattanooga in the second round.

CBS Sports: Jerry Palm also has the Hogs avoiding the First Four, projecting No. 11 Arkansas to face No. 6 Clemson in Denver for the first round. Three-seed Texas Tech or 14-seed Utah Valley would face the winner in the second round.

On3: This bracketologist is a little more bullish on the Razorbacks, slotting them in as a No. 10 seed in his latest projection. Arkansas would face No. 7 Marquette in Cleveland, with No. 2 Michigan State and No. 15 Robert Morris also in the regional.

USA TODAY: Like Palm, USA TODAY believes the Hogs will be an 11 seed that avoids the First Four and heads to Denver. There, they will play No. 6 Marquette, and the winner would get a shot at either No. 3 Texas Tech or No. 14 Utah Valley.

Arkansas basketball NCAA Tournament résumé

The Razorbacks have three high-quality wins over Michigan, Kentucky and Missouri. The team’s road victories against Texas and Vanderbilt also qualify as a Quad 1 wins, and the Hogs are 5-9 in that category.

Arkansas is 2-3 against Quad 2 opponents, which is where the home win over Texas and the loss to South Carolina fall. The Razorbacks are No. 39 in the NET Rankings and on KenPom.

Jackson Fuller covers Arkansas football, basketball and baseball for the Southwest Times Record, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at jfuller@gannett.com or follow him @jacksonfuller16 on X, formerly known as Twitter.