Paul George signing with the Philadelphia 76ers. Klay Thompson leaving the Golden State Warriors for the Dallas Mavericks. Russell Westbrook joining the Denver Nuggets.

Yes, some of the NBA’s biggest names were swept up in this offseason’s free-agency cycle.

Which moves were the best? And which moves will fizzle out? To answer those questions and more, The Athletic assembled writers Kelly Iko, Darnell Mayberry and Josh Robbins to provide their candid takes on the last month of player movement.

Which free-agency addition or subtraction will make the biggest difference in the chase for the 2024-25 NBA championship? 

Kelly Iko: Technically, this shouldn’t count, but the Oklahoma City Thunder swapping Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso might turn out to be the most significant offseason move among any title contender. Caruso offers a substantial upgrade on both ends of the floor that should affirm itself during the playoffs.

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I can’t help but imagine how differently the end of May’s second-round playoff series with the Dallas Mavericks would have played out with Caruso, a low-maintenance, efficient floor spacer (40.8 percent from 3 on nearly five attempts per game), as opposed to leaning so heavily on Luguentz Dort, who spent so much energy chasing around Luka Dončić that his 3-point shooting suffered (39.4 percent in the regular season compared to 31.7 percent for the series). The Thunder felt like they were missing another “guy,” especially considering the scoring drop-off after Oklahoma City’s big three and Giddey’s inability to stay on the floor.

Caruso is everything you want in a role player alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: proficient in transition and as a secondary ballhandler, as well as bringing All-NBA defensive versatility, giving the Thunder another irritant who can handle smaller, quicker backcourt assignments. He’s also a plus rebounder at his position for a team that struggled in that department during the regular season. Oklahoma City should consider itself the favorite in the Western Conference.

Darnell Mayberry: George going to Philadelphia. After 14 seasons and nine All-Star appearances, George might be walking into the best role of his career. Alongside Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, George will get to function as the ideal third option. His shooting, defense and playmaking are exactly what the Sixers need around Embiid and Maxey.

But why stop at George?

I love what the Sixers have assembled across the board. Adding Andre Drummond, Eric Gordon and Caleb Martin gives Philadelphia the needed size, shooting, experience, depth and toughness.

It’s not just George. The Sixers have constructed a championship-caliber roster around Embiid and Maxey.

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Josh Robbins: Let’s flash back for a second to last regular season in the West and remind ourselves just how razor-thin the margin was between the conference’s top-three teams: Oklahoma City, Denver and Minnesota. The Thunder and Nuggets tied for the best record with the Timberwolves trailing by one game in the standings. It’s easy to forget now, but Denver entered the postseason as the odds-on favorite to represent the West in the NBA Finals, at least in the players’ eyes. Then, in the playoffs’ second round, Minnesota ousted Denver in a seven-game series.

My point is this: A critical player’s departure can do as much to change the balance of power as a signing. And I expect Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s exit from Denver and signing with the Orlando Magic to haunt the Nuggets.

Caldwell-Pope isn’t a star, but his defensive versatility, floor spacing and effectiveness without using a large share of possessions made him an ideal role player alongside Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray. Christian Braun may have the size and tools to emerge one day as a suitable replacement for Caldwell-Pope, but at 23 years old, Braun doesn’t have Caldwell-Pope’s experience. Braun also may not have his grit.

Re-signing Caldwell-Pope would have complicated Denver’s cap picture relative to the second apron. But at the same time, with the margins so narrow in the competitive West, losing such a critical role player narrowed Denver’s window to contend during Jokić’s prime. The Nuggets wound up adding Russell Westbrook via the veteran’s minimum, but Westbrook won’t bring the floor spacing and defense Caldwell-Pope offered.

With his defense and floor spacing, Alex Caruso has the potential to enhance Oklahoma City’s chances of winning the NBA title. (Matt Krohn / USA Today)

Which free-agency addition is most likely to fizzle or be unsuccessful?

Iko: I’m not entirely sure what Golden State’s direction is. I’m a fan of adding Buddy Hield (and a *healthy* De’Anthony Melton), but I don’t think Kyle Anderson is the type of player you bring in if you’re trying to extract the maximum from the latter stages of Stephen Curry’s career.

In a vacuum, Anderson’s impact is clear. He’s a point forward who serves as an offensive hub, posting career highs in both assist percentage and assist-to-usage ratio (98th and 100th percentile among forwards, respectively, per Cleaning the Glass). Defensively, his ability to cover multiple positions is underrated. He generates a good number of deflections (89th percentile, per CraftedNBA), can protect the rim at times and forces turnovers. If you squint hard enough, he’s Draymond Green Lite (kind of).

But for a team that has relied on its spacing for years, Anderson historically isn’t a clean fit. He’s also not a strong rebounder at his position, despite his 6-foot-9 frame. Maybe the Warriors are confident Anderson can return to being a league-average shooter, but I wouldn’t bank on it. Per PBPStats, Minnesota was a plus-8 with Anderson off the floor in the postseason and a minus-6 with him on, which is a telling sign of a player whose weaknesses seem to be magnified more than his strengths being accentuated. Not saying it can’t work, but it looks tricky.

Mayberry: Something’s in the water in New Orleans. Color me skeptical about Dejounte Murray’s potential impact with the Pelicans.

The trade appears to be a major upgrade for New Orleans. Murray certainly makes the Pelicans more talented than before. But will the pieces fit, and are the Pelicans able to avoid imploding?

There are too many questions surrounding Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and an aging CJ McCollum for me to think Murray — who needs the ball to be most effective — will slide in and make everything right.

Murray might help. But if the Pelicans do implode, we know something was in the water down in New Orleans long before Murray got there. It wouldn’t be his fault.

Robbins: I know the Thunder’s signing of Isaiah Hartenstein to a three-year, $87 million deal (including a team option for 2026-27) has been widely praised. On balance, I think his addition is a good one. Oklahoma City ranked 27th in defensive-rebounding percentage last season, and Hartenstein will help the Thunder improve in that area. He’s a good rim protector. And who wouldn’t love Hartenstein’s motor?

But adding Hartenstein will bring a few complications that could prevent his signing from being the home run it’s largely been made out to be. I’m not convinced playing Chet Holmgren at the four when Hartenstein is on the court would be the optimal use of Holmgren’s talents. In addition, one of the strengths that made the Thunder offense so difficult to defend last season was the ability to play a 5-out offense. The Thunder won’t be able to accomplish that with Hartenstein on the court because he’s not a 3-point shooter.

These are quibbles in the grand scheme of things. I’m just saying Hartenstein’s addition may bring some bumps along the way.

The Pelicans expect Dejounte Murray to make them better. (David Banks / USA Today)

What surprised you most about this free-agency cycle? 

Iko: How easily the LA Clippers let George walk, especially in this economy.

Depending on how much stock you put into George’s words via his podcast, it seems like there were some discrepancies between George’s internal valuation and what the Clippers initially offered, as well as some haggling over a possible fourth year and a no-trade clause.

On the surface, those don’t seem like make-or-break circumstances — if I’m ownership — on a decision to retain George’s services or not. If you haven’t heard, the Clippers are moving into a state-of-the-art arena, and a new TV deal is on its way. Revenue will increase and star salaries will spike soon. As ludicrous as it sounds, $50 million per year might become the new $30 million in a few years. An extra fourth year, as opposed to three, shouldn’t have been the dealbreaker, no matter how lofty George’s desire to be paid similarity to Kawhi Leonard seemed to the Clippers’ brass.

The Clippers needed some tuning up, but George was way down on the laundry list of issues. He’s a star and replacing his two-way production with Derrick Jones Jr., Kevin Porter Jr. and Nic Batum is easier said than done. Maybe owner Steve Ballmer preferred financial flexibility over keeping a roster together that was never going to truly challenge in the West, but allowing George to walk — and getting nothing in return — is a head-scratcher. The news release was even crazier!

Mayberry: Franz Wagner pulling in a quarter-billion dollars from the Magic ranks high, if for no other reason than for my sticker shock. Yes, the salary cap is set to spike, which will make all of these sky-high contracts begin to sound normal. And, yes, Wagner, is a fabulous young talent who deserved a big payday.

But the Magic committing early at such a big number came as a surprise. Orlando rewarded one of its homegrown stars now rather than remaining patient and allowing Wagner to prove his worth throughout what inevitably will be a high-stakes fourth season for him given the Magic’s playoff expectations. And given Wagner’s nightmarish six-point, 1 of 15 performance in Orlando’s Game 7 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round last season, I wonder what compelled the Magic to push this contract through now.

Robbins: I can address Darnell’s very valid trepidation about the Magic’s decision on Wagner. What I think it comes down to is this: When you know someone is going to be a core member of your team for the long term, and you know that person already is a hard worker and a superb teammate, you don’t attempt to shave off a several million dollars in annual salary here and there. Trying to nickel-and-dime such an important player could have done more harm than good. To further the point: Showing total confidence in that player (in this case, with a max deal) has the potential to strengthen the player’s development.

Back to the question at hand: the biggest surprise in this free-agency cycle. For me, it was Tyus Jones settling for a one-year deal worth $3 million with the Phoenix Suns. After Jones posted career highs in points, assists and even rebounds (albeit for a team that finished with the league’s second-worst record), I expected him to snag a multi-year deal that at least matched the $14.5 million annual average salary he secured in his prior contract. Washington’s decisions to accept Malcolm Brogdon in the Deni Avdija deal and to add Bub Carrington through the draft, along with Jordan Poole’s continued presence, made Jones expendable, despite Jones’ value as a steady floor general and strong locker-room presence.

What was the biggest bargain move? 

Iko: The second apron was designed to restrict the Suns’ activity, but nabbing Jones on a veteran’s minimum is a good piece of business for a team in desperate need of a stable playmaker. I think pairing him with new head coach Mike Budenholzer is even better, given Budenholzer’s track record working with point guards — as well as Jones upgrading from playing alongside Poole/Kyle Kuzma to playing alongside Devin Booker/Kevin Durant.

Jones isn’t going to command a ton of usage, but he’s an organizer, takes care of the ball (7.2 turnover percentage, 95th percentile) and most importantly, can space the floor and knock down open 3s (41.4 percent on 3.9 attempts per game). A big chunk of Phoenix’s dysfunction was the allocation of player roles, all of which had to include some level of creation because of their absence of a true floor general (Booker best served as a secondary playmaker or staggered).

Mayberry: Chris Paul to San Antonio on a one-year, $11 million is as good as it gets. Paul isn’t the player he used to be, but the Spurs snagged a future Hall of Fame floor general to pair with their Hall of Fame coach and their young phenom, Victor Wembanyama.

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Paul’s expertise in the pick-and-roll and precision launching lob passes to the 7-foot-4 Wembanyama will soon be an unstoppable action. Paul’s addition, along with Harrison Barnes’ via a three-team trade with Sacramento and Chicago and Wemby’s massive potential, is why the Spurs are seen as a sneaky possible playoff team.

But no matter how the Spurs fare in the standings next season, pairing an all-timer like Paul with an impressionable potential all-timer like Wembanyama is smart business for long-term success. That makes Paul this offseason’s biggest bargain.

Robbins: Jones and Paul are great choices.

But how can the answer be anyone other than Jalen Brunson extending with the Knicks on a four-year deal worth “only” $156.5 million instead of a max deal that would’ve been worth an additional $113 million in guaranteed money? Yes, you read that correctly. Brunson did the Knicks a favor by agreeing to a four-year, $156.5 million extension instead of a four-year, $269 million extension.

Jalen Brunson ought to be the toast of New York after agreeing to a bargain contract extension with the Knicks. (Brad Penner / USA Today)

What was the biggest overpay?

Iko: If you wanted a simple example of where NBA contracts are headed, look no further than OG Anunonby getting $42.5 million per year for his new five-year deal with the Knicks.

The Knicks, who have pushed all their chips to the middle of the table, somewhat had their hands tied. RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley are two incredibly talented players, and trading both of them last season meant New York needed something just under the level of a star in return.

Pound for pound, Anunoby is probably the most physical 3-and-D wing in the league, and he’s a two-way player (dwindling class of elite types), shooting 39.4 percent from 3 on 4.5 attempts per game following the trade. He’s a strong transition player who can handle the ball in spots and snag whatever rebounds Josh Hart allows him to have, all while harassing the best opposing player. He’s also making similar money annually to Giannis Antetokoumpo and Dončić. Times are changing.

Mayberry: More than a month later, I’m still processing the haul the Knicks gave up for Mikal Bridges. Relinquishing five first-round draft picks in seven years is the definition of a franchise mortgaging its future. Bridges is terrific, no doubt. He’s a two-way performer. He’s durable. He’s still improving as a player. Bridges doesn’t just add to the feel-good story building in New York, he also might just be the missing link who brings the Knicks their first championship since 1973.

But what if he’s not?

By taking such a big swing, the Knicks went all in, leaving themselves no room for error and little means to pivot. But I’m never mad at any management regime that pushes the limits in pursuit of a title. Winning it all is the goal — or at least it should be.

In a league where the playing field suddenly has more parity, the Knicks positioned themselves to be one of the league’s most serious players.

Their overpay also could pay off.

Robbins: I like what Quickley brings to a team, but the Raptors’ decision to re-sign him to a five-year, $162.5 million deal seems like a stretch.

Required reading

(Top photo of Klay Thompson and Paul George: Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)