1. Is Kyren Williams Losing Work?

A quick glance at the box score — or even these usage metrics — makes it look like Corum’s role expanded at Williams’ expense in Week 13.

But a deeper dive into how this game played out reveals that nothing really changed.

Corum has been getting a series to himself — usually the second or third of the game — for over a month now. That was the case again in the win over the Saints. It just so happened to be a 12-play drive, affording Corum five carries.

After that, Williams out-carried Corum 15 to three.

Corum remains a premier handcuff that’s worth keeping stashed on fantasy benches. But do not bank on him emerging as a fantasy option without a Williams injury.

And if the Williams owner in your league is panicking, make a trade offer. Williams remains a strong volume bet — and gets the seventh easiest remaining RB schedule.

2. Bucky Irving Plays Workhorse

I didn’t think 192-pound Irving would have a 25-carry game at any point of his NFL career. He just did it in his 12th game.

Irving’s ascent to clear lead back in Tampa Bay continued in Week 13 with a season-high 64% carry share. And his performance — 152 yards and a score on 6.1 yards per carry — will make it impossible for the Bucs to move away from him.

The team won’t combine for 36 RB carries like it did against Carolina again the rest of the season. But if Irving can continue getting ~60% of the rush attempts, along with a healthy role in the passing game, he’s a good bet for top-15 production the rest of the way against the sixth-easiest RB schedule.

3. Can We Trust Bears WRs?

Interim-OC-turned-interim-HC Thomas Brown has saved Chicago’s passing game — and the fantasy value of its WRs.

Here are QB Caleb Williams’ numbers under Brown the last three games vs. his numbers under former OC Shane Waldron over the first nine:

Last three games:

• 64% completion rate
• 7.1 yards per attempt
• 4.3% TD rate

First nine games:

• 61% completion rate
• 6.1 yards per attempt
• 3.1% TD rate

Williams’ improvement — combined with a condensed target tree — has turned Moore and Allen into comfortable fantasy starters.

Moore has been especially efficient with Williams over the last three weeks, with a 73% catch rate and 8.8 yards per target. 

Odunze looks like the clear No. 3 WR in Chicago. And his downfield role (12.7-yard average target depth over the last three games) makes him more volatile. But Odunze is seeing enough volume to at least be a WR4 with spike-week upside.

4. Breece Hall Loses Work To … Isaiah Davis?!

Hall’s 61% snap rate in Week 13 was a season low. His 52% route rate was his second lowest mark. And his 13 opportunities (12 carries, 1 target) tied a season low.

It wasn’t even Allen to blame. His playing time and touch shares were right around his season averages. Instead, it was Davis butting in to make this a three-man backfield. The fifth-round rookie played 12 snaps, carried once, and drew three targets, catching all three for 28 yards and a score. Davis had totaled four carries and one target over the first 11 games of the season.

Asked about Davis’ role on Monday, interim HC Jeff Ulbrich praised his practice performance, adding: “It’s a great opportunity to reward great behavior, especially in times like these.”

With the 3-9 Jets potentially entering evaluation mode, they could continue to scale back Hall’s volume and get a look at Davis.

Hall is still an easy fantasy starter — but will struggle for RB1 production if this Week 13 usage continues.

5. Isiah Pacheco Limited In Return

It was not a surprise that Pacheco was limited in his first action since Week 2. He played 26 snaps in the surprisingly close win over the Raiders, tallying seven carries and one target.

It was also not a surprise that Pacheco out-performed RB Kareem Hunt on the ground. Pacheco took his seven carries for 44 yards, while Hunt totaled just 15 yards on a matching seven carries. Hunt is down to 3.7 yards per carry on the season and ranks 42nd among 46 qualifying RBs in rush yards over expected per attempt.

Pacheco should start to pull away from Hunt in rushing work. But it’ll also be important for him to claim a bigger share of the passing-down snaps — especially with the Chiefs going super pass-heavy lately.

Pacheco is a good bet to re-establish himself as Kansas City’s clear lead back by end of the regular season. Exactly how quickly he gets there is uncertain, though. He’s an uncomfortable fantasy start until we see it happen (although a potentially necessary one with six teams on bye this week).

6. Tyrone Tracy Still The Giants’ Lead Back

After Tracy fumbled three times in the previous two games, Singletary drew the start on Thanksgiving and received the Giants’ first two carries. But Tracy got the rock on New York’s fourth snap and operated as the lead back the rest of the way.

In fact, Tracy’s 71% snap rate and 64% route rate were his second-highest marks of the season in a game with Singletary. Tracy also played the Giants’ only goal-line snap, punching in a score from one yard out.

New York’s offense remains an issue for Tracy’s fantasy value. But his role should at least make him a comfortable RB3 or Flex play the rest of the season.

7. Chargers Going With 3-RB Committee

It’s tough to take too much away from a game that saw the Chargers run only 46 plays and total 11 RB carries. But we’ll try.

As expected, J.K. Dobbins’ absence left Edwards as the lead early-down back vs. Atlanta, playing 21 of those 34 snaps (62%). He also somewhat surprisingly led the backfield in routes, although Edwards played just one of the team’s eight third-down snaps. Haskins led the way with four third-down snaps and played the only goal-line snap. Vidal mixed in on both early and third downs.

We should get a bigger sample of snaps to analyze this backfield in Week 14, but it sure looks like an ugly three-man committee. Edwards is the top fantasy play — but no better than a RB3, especially in a brutal matchup against the Chiefs’ top-ranked RB defense on Sunday night.

8. Jonathan Brooks Gets (Slight) Usage Bump

Brooks’ usage climbed across the board in his second NFL game.

After mixing in for five snaps in his debut, Brooks started three separate drives for Carolina in Week 13, including one that started at Tampa Bay’s 20-yard line. The rookie finished with 15 snaps, six carries, and three targets.

He had a few impressive plays.

jonathon brooks will be very, very fun

already creating yards on his own pic.twitter.com/YqrYHL7K8B

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) December 2, 2024

Brooks still needs to pick up a bunch more work to be a viable fantasy play — and I doubt he gets there before the end of the season.

The bigger impact here is on RB Chuba Hubbard, who garnered just 12 carries with 0 targets in Week 13. His 79% snap rate and 60% route rate were in line with his season averages, so there’s still hope for RB2 production. But he’ll downgrade to RB3 status if he continues to lose this many touches to Brooks.

9. Jaguars Down To 2 RBs

The Jaguars made RB D’Ernest Johnson a healthy scratch in Week 13, turning this into a two-man committee.

Etienne and Bigsby played similar roles. Etienne held very slight edges in both early-down snaps (22 to 19) and third-down snaps (7 to 5). Both guys played five snaps in the two-minute drill and one goal-line snap.

A 50/50 backfield split in a bad offense isn’t a very appealing fantasy situation, of course. But if this remains a two-man committee, Etienne and Bigsby could at least be serviceable RB3 or Flex plays.

10. Bijan Robinson Will Win Fantasy Championships

With QB Kirk Cousins struggling and their season on the line, the Falcons are leaning on Robinson. He’s handled 24+ opportunities in three of his last four games, including a season-high 32 in Week 13.

Over those last four games, Robinson ranks third among RBs in both expected PPR points per game and actual PPR points per game.

Robinson gets a tough Vikings defense in Week 14. But the next three weeks bring neutral-to-positive matchups against the Raiders, Giants, and Commanders.

Robinson has a chance to lead all RBs in fantasy points the rest of the way and propel fantasy teams to titles.

Jared Smola,
Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.