Luka Dončić getting traded to the Los Angeles Lakers stunned the basketball world and it’s had an instant impact on his trading cards. But where does it go from here?

Dončić was one of the darlings of the pandemic-era sports card boom. After making his NBA debut in the 2018-19 season, he was rapidly ascending to become one of the best players in the league and basketball card collectors were driving up the values of his cards just as fast. In March of 2021, that hype peaked when his one-of-a-kind Panini National Treasures autographed logoman card (meaning it features an NBA logo jersey patch embedded in the card) reportedly sold privately for $4.6 million, which was a record sale for a basketball card at the time. That same card sold publicly in Nov. 2022 for $3.1 million. According to CardLadder, which tracks trading card sales across major marketplaces, there have been 11 other sales of Dončić cards for more than $500,000 between 2020 and 2022.

Since that period, Dončić’s card values have come back down to Earth (along with the rest of the trading card market) as he’s failed to achieve the milestones that keep that early hype burning, like winning MVP awards or championship rings. In June of last year there was a bit of a spike back up when he helped the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals and finished third in MVP voting, but since the Boston Celtics handily dispatched the Mavericks to win the title, that burst didn’t last long.

This season, with the Mavs hovering around .500 and Dončić battling injuries that have kept him from playing since Christmas day, it seemed like it would be a quiet year for his card values. But that all changed late on Saturday night with the news that he was traded to one of the most popular franchises in the NBA. His 2018 Panini Prizm Silver rookie card (a popular parallel that’s in shorter supply than the base version) in a gem-mint PSA 10 grade, which has a population of 2,370, went from selling for around $1,000 before the trade to around $1,900 in the hours after the deal, according to CardLadder. As massive of a shift as that is for such a short time, it’s worth noting that it sold for more than $9,000 during the crazy pandemic-era highs four years ago.

Predicting where Dončić’s card prices go from here is dependent on a few factors, though. While it seems likely that this initial boost could continue as he makes his first few appearances alongside LeBron James with the Lakers, and their massive fan base excitedly buys in on their new star, he’s going to have to deliver what he couldn’t with the Mavs in order for it to carry on indefinitely. He’s going to have to win MVPs and championships.

How popular is Luka Dončić among collectors?

According to eBay, the top five active NBA players with the most items sold during the 2023-24 NBA season on their platform were Victor Wembanyama, LeBron James, Anthony Edwards, Luka Dončić, and Jayson Tatum. Dončić also ranks among the top 10 in NBA jersey sales (his new Lakers jersey is already on sale). So he’s definitely one of the most popular players in the league and playing for the Lakers will give him a chance to grow that popularity in new ways.

Are there any Luka Dončić cards that could decline in value because of the trade?

Again, long-term values will depend on what he can achieve in LA, but it will be interesting to see what happens with Dončić’s Dallas-era Downtown inserts going forward. Downtowns, which are semi-rare cards that feature artistic representations of players and landmarks of the city they represent, have been some of Panini’s most popular cards in recent years and carry premium value as a result. But will collectors still pay top dollar for cards of Dončić alongside covered wagons and horses now that he’s in LA? Now might be the time to sell those cards in particular.

Beware the “Lakers rookie card” spin

When LeBron joined the Lakers in 2018, some sellers tried to capitalize on the excited LA fans by framing his first cards in his new uniform as “Lakers rookie cards.” So, seven years on, have those cards retained any unique level of value?

In short: no.

As of this writing LeBron’s 2019 silver Prizms in a PSA 10, his first in a Lakers uniform, are selling for around $40-$60, and his 2018 silver Prizms — his last in a Cleveland Cavaliers uniform — are selling for…around $40-$60.

Don’t be surprised if this framing is attempted again with Dončić when next season’s NBA cards drop.

Luka Dončić’s key rookie cards:

2018 Panini Prizm Silver
PSA 10 population: 2,370
Recent sales: $1,900
All-time high: $9,098

2018 Panini Optic Holo
PSA 10 population: 365
Recent sales: $995
All-time high: $7,711

The 2018-19 National Treasures Luka Doncic Rc Auto Logoman 1/1 just sold for $4.6 million.

That’s the highest price ever paid for a basketball card.

(Buyer: IG/shyne150) pic.twitter.com/FoTjV3GcBD

— Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) February 28, 2021

2018 Panini National Treasures RPAs (rookie patch autograph cards)
Numbered to 99 and lower
Recent sales vary based on rarity and grade
All-time high: $4.6 million

Other cool (and cheaper) Luka Dončić cards:

2019 Panini Net Marvels

A fun, comic book inspired insert from Panini’s Donruss set. Will playing for the Lakers get Dončić a role in a Marvel movie?

2022 Panini Select Courtside

OK, so Dončić isn’t known for his dunks, but this is such a great photograph. It’s just a good-looking card.

2023 Panini Noir Vintage Art

Panini’s Noir product features some of the prettiest basketball cards of the ultra modern era and this edition of the Vintage Art inserts is right up their with its very best designs.

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(Top photo: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)