Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings Risers and Fallers: Upgrade Josh Downs

Posted by Admin October 31, 2024 Football

It’s time to set our fantasy lineups for the week and with that in mind, let’s follow the data to analyze some of the biggest risers and fallers in the Week 9 fantasy football rankings ranks to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

Risers In The Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings

Matthew Stafford | QB | Rams

In Stafford’s first game this season with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp playing all four quarters, he dissected the Vikings with 279 yards and four TDs. Based on the last two years of data, Stafford has been a different quarterback when his top two playmakers are on the field.

Without Kupp and Nacua: 7.0 yards per attempt (YPA), 2.4% TDs per attempt
With Kupp and Nacua: 7.9 YPA, 6.4% TDs per attempt

The NFL average for YPA and TDs per attempt is 7.1 and 4.1% over the last two years. With his studs, Stafford looks like a high-end pocket passer.

The Rams carry a healthy 25-point team total, per odds makers, and the Seahawks rank sixth in fantasy boost (1.4) to QBs.

Stafford UPGRADES to borderline QB1 territory as my QB13. He ranks ahead of Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud, and Baker Mayfield.

QB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

Geno Smith | Seahawks: Smith posted an 8.6-point dud last weekend, but the Seahawks are still a pass-heavy team, and the Rams offer a beatable matchup. Seattle ranks No. 1 in dropback rate over expectation (DBOE) at 7.6%. This ranking is dependent on the availability of D.K. Metcalf (knee). If Metcalf plays, Smith is a top-10 QB.
Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs: It feels weird to talk about Mahomes getting an upgrade to borderline QB1 status, but that is the world we live in. The Chiefs are willing to run the ball and win games in other ways with so many weapons hurt. Mahomes is averaging only 236 yards and 1.1 passing TDs per game–he ranks 19th in fantasy points per game (15.7). However, a matchup against a Buccaneers defense coughing up the third-most fantasy points per game via the pass (18.4) and a 27-point team total point to good things for the KC QB in Week 9. Mahomes UPGRADES to borderline QB1 territory.
Jameis Winston | Browns: Winston ripped the dreadful Ravens secondary for 334 yards and three TDs and tallied a QB7 finish with 24.6 points. This weekend, the matchup looks more challenging on paper, with the Chargers allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game via the pass (10.2). I am not entirely convinced. They have faced one of the easiest schedules versus the Raiders (17th), Panthers (30th), Steelers (24th), Chiefs (14th), Broncos (29th), Cardinals (28th), and Saints (20th). Even that doesn’t tell the whole story–the matchups against the Steelers were with Justin Fields and Spencer Rattler at QB. Winston is a mid-range QB2 but offers QB1 upside, and his passing yardage totals are begging to be teased up. His current Pick’em total on Underdog is 237.5.

Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | Commanders

Robinson has battled a knee injury for the better part of a month, crippling his workload with 24% and 34% attempt share outings in Weeks 5 and 7 (missed Week 6). However, last weekend, he handled 64% of the totes.

Over the season’s first four games, he averaged 60% and scored 15.9 points per game. His total snaps were still low due to less work in the passing attack. That creates room for downside should the Giants find a way to push the Commanders into a pass-heavy game script, but Washington is favored by four points on the road (the equivalent of a one-touchdown favorite at home).

The Giants allow the seventh-most rushing yards per game (140), and the Commanders are vibing. Washington ranks third in points per game (29.5) and scores a touchdown on 30% of drives–the fifth-most.

Robinson UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status (RB18) and offers RB1 upside.

Chase Brown | RB | Bengals

This looks like a potential breakout game for Brown. Over the last three games, he has taken over the lead rushing duties with 60% of the carries.

Now he gets a matchup against a Raiders defense, sanctioning the third-highest fantasy boost (4.2 points) to the RB position. Las Vegas allows the 13th-most rushing yards (130) and fifth-most TDs (1.1) per game.

The Bengals boast the fourth-largest team total (26.8) as eight-point favorites, making this a perfect spot for Brown to erupt. We could see 100 yards and multiple TDs on the ground from the second-year back.

Brown UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status but offers a sky-high ceiling in Week 9.

RB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

Alvin Kamara | Saints: Kamara’s elite utilization has declined over the past two games with Kendre Miller‘s emergence and Taysom Hill‘s return. Kamara’s receiving utilization has remained top-notch (23% target share). Still, the Saints have lightened his workload (47% rush share), contributing to a 7.5 Utilization Score–well below his 9.3 for the season. However, Miller is questionable, and the Panthers license the No. 1 fantasy boost to the RB position at 8.2 points. Kamara UPGRADES to top-six RB status.
Aaron Jones | Vikings: Jones scored a lackluster 11.5 fantasy points in Week 8, but his underlying utilization remained elite. Since Week 3, the Vikings have loaded Jones up with opportunities in four healthy games. Over that stretch, he has a 78% snap share and 8.7 Utilization score with 18.5 attempts and four targets per game. The Colts allow the second-most rushing yards per game (152), and the Vikings are six-point favorites with the sixth-highest team total (25.8). Jones is a SMASH PLAY as my RB7, and our consensus ranks are TOO LOW (RB12).
De’Von Achane | Dolphins: In our Nerd Notes section last week, we discussed how heavy zone coverage defenses force targets to distribute more broadly across the offense. In many cases, the RBs and TEs get the most significant bump. Achane’s target share jumps from 11% against man to 17% versus zone coverage, and the Bills play the seventh-most zone coverage in the NFL, propelling the No. 1 target boost to the RB position at 2.4 per game. Achane is a low-end RB1 and could have a big day in the passing game against Buffalo.
D’Andre Swift | Bears: Chicago’s offense has been highly volatile, with rookie QB Caleb Williams at the helm. However, Swift has been a model citizen when it comes to consistency. The fifth-year back has scored over 18 points in four consecutive starts with RB3, RB2, RB8, and RB11 finishes. Over that span, he has a sizzling 8.7 Utilization Score and snap share (69%). The Cardinals cough up the fifth-most rushing yards (141) on the slate, and the Bears should be in a close game as one-point dogs. Swift UPGRADES to borderline RB1 territory.
Tony Pollard | Titans: The Titans offense is pretty gross, but Pollard is getting most of the work and has a matchup against the Patriots. New England allows the second-largest fantasy boost (4.9 points per game) to the position. Tyjae Spears could return to action, but Pollard handled 68% of the team’s rushing attempts over the first three games with Spears healthy. However, his work in the passing game could come down in the second-year back returns. Pollard’s route participation has surged from 58% to 70% with Spears out of the lineup. Pollard is a mid-range RB2 against New England.
Tyrone Tracy | Giants: Tracy is in the concussion protocol after leaving the Monday night contest, making him very questionable for this weekend. However, Tracy looked impressive again against a tough run defense in the Steelers. The rookie back dominated the backfield, handling 83% of the rushing attempts on his way to an 8.1 Utilization Score in Week 8. The Commanders allow the sixth-most rushing yards per game (140), making Tracy a viable play. If he clears protocol, Tracy will UPGRADE to mid-range RB2 territory and offer RB1 upside.

Josh Downs & Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | Colts

The Colts pass-catching duo was fantasy viable over a three-game stretch with Joe Flacco playing the majority of snaps.

Downs: 19.2 points per game, 8.3 Utilization Score, 28% target share
Pittman: 14.8 points per game, 6.8 Utilization Score, 19% target share

The Vikings dispense the No. 2 fantasy boost to the WR position at 8.2 points per game. Minnesota allows the fifth-most passing yards (251) and fourth-most touchdowns (1.8) per game.

The Vikings play the most two-high coverage in the NFL and rank fourth in zone coverage. While Downs is my favorite of the two due to his underlying breakout metrics, this matchup bodes very well for Pittman. The fifth-year WR has struggled against man coverage in 2024 (15% target share), but leads the team with a 28% share against zone.

Downs is a UPGRADES to borderline WR1 territory and is a SMASH PLAY. Pittman UPGRADES to borderline WR2 status.

DeVonta Smith | WR | Eagles

Smith’s target share has returned to earth over the last three games with A.J. Brown back in the lineup, but it is still a respectable 22%. That number could climb this weekend against a Jaguars defense that deploys man coverage the second-most in the NFL.

Nerd Note: Targets tend to consolidate around high-end receiving options against man coverage–especially WRs. However, finding matchups where this edge is exploitable isn’t easy because most teams don’t run enough man coverage.

Brown is still the alpha dog against man with a 37% TPRR, but Smith is also a plus player at 25%. Against a Jaguars defense empowering the third-highest boost to the position (6.5 points per game), Smith has a chance to boom in the boxscore. The Eagles rank third in team total (27) on the slate, and Jacksonville gives up the most passing TDs per contest (2.1).

Smith UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 in a special matchup.

Jakobi Meyers | WR | Raiders

In the three games Meyers has played without Davante Adams in the lineup, he has a 7.8 Utilization Score with a 30% target share and 37% air yards share. It’s a small sample, but historically, his comps have finished in the range of WR2 to WR3.

The lackluster nature of Vegas’ overall offense should keep us from -being overly bullish on Meyers. Still, this offense should consolidate around Meyers and Brock Bowers the rest of the way.

Meyers UPGRADES to mid-range WR3 status and offers WR2 upside.

WR Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

A.J. Brown | Eagles: Everything I just said above about DeVonta Smith goes for Brown, but times two. Brown has a massive 37% TPRR against man coverage, and the Jaguars are terrible against the pass. Brown UPGRADES to THE WR1 on the slate.
Cedric Tillman | Browns: Tillman has averaged 22.5 points per game since Amari Cooper left for the Bills. He has notched 24% target shares in each game and has an 8.9 Utilization Score, which puts him in very heady company. Expect Tillman to test the paper tiger Chargers defense this weekend (see comments above for Jameis Winston). Tillman UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status. (Bonus: Elijah Moore is a borderline WR3, along with Jerry Jeudy).
Ladd McConkey | Chargers: McConkey leads the Chargers with a 32% target share against man coverage. The Browns utilize man coverage, the third-most in the NFL, and are a neutral matchup against the pass. McConkey UPGRADES to high-end WR3 status.
Courtland Sutton | Broncos: The Ravens green-light the No. 1 fantasy boost to the WR position at 8.2 points per game. Sutton isn’t an elite target earner, but he is solid (22%), and his 6.2 Utilization Score puts him in a range where big spike weeks can occur. Sutton UPGRADES to mid-range WR3 territory.

Sam LaPorta | TE | Lions

My hypothesis on LaPorta’s downfall in Year 2 was Jameson Williams‘ ascension. In a run-balanced offense (-4.4% DBOE) with multiple mouths to feed, LaPorta had averaged a lowly 7.1 points per game heading into Week 8.

However, with Williams out of the lineup, LaPorta had his best game of the season.

Fantasy points: 16.8
Utilization Score: 8.0
Targets: 33%

It is only one game, but this is encouraging for the second-year TE, who will play game No. 2 without Williams this weekend. The Packers have allowed the ninth-most points per game (29.6) to opposing pass catchers this season and the Lions own the sixth-best team total (25.8).

LaPorta UPGRADES to mid-range TE1 status.

TE Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

Travis Kelce | Chiefs: Kelce has averaged 15.4 fantasy points since Week 4 when Rashee Rice left the lineup. He has a 9.3 Utilization Score over that stretch, with a 31% target share and 33% air yards share. The Buccaneers have blessed opposing pass catchers with the third-most fantasy points per game (34.7) and the love to deploy zone coverage. Kelce’s target share climbs from 18% against man to 25% versus zone. Kelce is the TE1 on the slate.
Trey McBride | Cardinals: The Bears’ secondary has been a tough out for opposing pass catchers, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game. While that could be problematic, we could see more targets funnel to McBride. The third-year TE leads the Cardinals with a 23% target share against zone. McBride remains a high-end option as the TE3 despite a tough matchup.

Fallers In The Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings

C.J. Stroud | QB | Texans

Stroud has averaged 12.4 points per game in three complete games without Nico Collins. Now, the Texans will face a tough Jets pass defense without Stefon Diggs, who is out for the season (ACL).

The Jets have held opposing quarterbacks to a whopping 5.5 points under their season average. New York also allows only 10.2 fantasy points per game through the air, the second-fewest. Vegas oddsmakers aren’t showing much optimism around the Texans either, with a 20.3-team total. Strouds passing yards Picke’em is at 224.5 yards on Underdog, only slightly below my projection of 228.

Stroud DOWNGRADES to low-end QB2 status.

Javonte Williams | RB | Broncos

Williams has a 7.8 Utilization Score and 14.3 points per game in four games without Tyler Badie, putting him in the weekly RB2 conversation. However, the Broncos are the biggest underdogs of Week 9, with the Ravens favored by 10 points.

Williams has an impressive 17% target share without Badie, which could keep him viable even in a trailing game script, but it is hard to see a path to upside. The Broncos boast the second-lowest team total (17.5), and the Ravens only allow 70 yards per game on the ground. Baltimore has held the RB position two points under their average.

Williams DOWNGRADES to RB3 status.

Zay Flowers | WR | Ravens

Flowers leads Baltimore with a 27% target share this season and has a 7.8 Utilization Score over the last four games. However, he draws one of the worst matchups in the NFL against the Broncos. Denver has held opposing WR rooms 6.7 points under their season average–by far the most in the league.

Flowers should see plenty of Patrick Surtain II this Sunday, and while Diontae Johnson shouldn’t have a full-time role, he could steal a few extra looks.

Flowers DOWNGRADES to WR3 material.

Rapid Fire Downgrades:

Baker Mayfield | QB | Buccaneers: Mayfield defied the odds last weekend, posting 23.3 fantasy points without Chris Godwin or Mike Evans in the lineup. While I can’t think of many things more fun than rooting for Mayfield to keep it going, the Bucs have the third-worst team total, and the Chiefs allow the seventh-fewest fantasy points to QBs via the pass. Mayfield DOWNGRADES to mid-range QB2 status, behind Tua Tagovailoa, Winston, and Bo Nix.
Josh Jacobs | RB | Packers: The Packers are four-point dogs and could be without Jordan Love. Malik Willis is a threat to steal rushing attempts from Jacobs, and the Lions have held the RB position to 4.7 points below their average, making them the second-toughest matchup at the position. Jacobs has been hot over the last two weeks (22.9 points per game) and isn’t a must-bench, but he does get a slight bump down the ranks. Jacobs DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB2 status.
Tank Bigsby | RB | Jaguars: Based on their utilization before Etienne’s injury, Bigsby is my favorite to lead the Jaguars in rushing attempts, even with the return of Travis Etienne. However, that prediction could go wrong, so it is better not to be overconfident in Etienne’s first game back. Additionally, as eight-point dogs, we could see a trailing game script push Bigsby off the field–he hasn’t been a passing-down option this season. The Eagles allow the fifth-fewest points to opposing rushing attacks (12.3 per game) and have held opposing RB rooms to 3.2 points below their average. Bigsby DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB3 territory.
Tampa Bay | RB | Buccaneers: The Bucs are dividing up their backfield across three backs, and the Chiefs have held the RB position to a terrifying nine points below their average. Tampa is a nine-point dog, and their 18-point team total is the third-worst on the Week 9 slate. Rachaad White and Bucky Irving are mid-range RB3s with RB5 downside if they don’t get involved in the pass game.

Sicko Starts of The Week – Week 9

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

Week 1: Sam Darnold (hit), J.K. Dobbins (hit), Jalen McMillan (hit), Zach Ertz (miss)

Week 2: Daniel Jones (hit), Zack Moss (miss), Adonai Mitchell (miss), Zach Ertz (hit)

Week 3: Aaron Rodgers (hit), D’Andre Swift (miss), Jordan Whittington (miss), Tyler Conklin (hit)

Week 4: Caleb Williams (miss), Jerome Ford (hit), Darnell Mooney (miss – But the PROCESS WAS RIGHT, he screamed … as his wife and children walked out of his life forever)

Week 5: Deshaun Watson (miss), Trey Sermon (hit), Tutu Atwell (hit)

Week 6: Daniel Jones (miss), Tyjae Spears (null-injured), Jalen Tolbert (miss), Zach Ertz (hit)

Week 7: Sam Darnold (miss), Tank Bigsby (hit), Jordan Addison (miss), Dalton Schultz (miss)

Week 8: Caleb Williams (miss), Raheem Mostert (hit), Dontayvion Wicks (miss), Cade Otton (hit)

Season: 14 of 29

Let’s go, you sickos.

Malik Willis | QB | Packers

Willis is available in 99% of Yahoo leagues, starting in less than 1% of lineups.

Jordan Love (groin) didn’t practice on Wednesday, opening the door for Willis to start against the Lions. Willis averaged 19.2 fantasy points in his two previous starts and was highly integrated into the Packers’ ground attack. Willis handled 7% of the team’s designed rush attempts and scrambled on 14% of his dropbacks, averaging six carries per game.

The Lions have a tough rush defense, but facing a rushing quarterback is different than bottling up opposing running backs. The Lions run the most man coverage in the NFL, something Willis will look to exploit on the ground when defenders turn their backs to the QB.

Willis UPGRADES to top-10 status if Love can’t go this weekend. He ranks ahead of names like Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Patrick Mahomes, and Jared Goff.

Alternate: Bo Nix will be the next man up if Love suits up. The Ravens have been terrible against the pass, but it is worth noting that the Broncos are 10-point dogs. (Nerd Note: when passing attacks fall behind and become predictable, the additional volume often doesn’t mean more fantasy points because efficiency deteriorates.) Nix is a mid-range QB2 this weekend.

Alexander Mattison | RB | Raiders

Mattison is available in 40% of leagues and is only in 29% of lineups.

This is pretty gross, y’all. The Raiders run game hasn’t been a productive one. However, Mattison has taken over the backfield. In the last two games with Zamir White back in the fold, Mattison has a 7.9 Utilization Score, thanks to a 75% attempt share and 14% target share. He has averaged 12.3 points over that span.

The Raiders are eight-point dogs, making this a thin play. However, Mattison is involved enough in the passing game to survive a bad game script without a complete dud. If Vegas manages to keep the game close, the Bengals have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game on the ground (22.2).

Look, I am not going to pretend Mattison is an appealing start. All the reasons we have downgraded Javonte Williams apply to Mattison, but this is not just any start, it’s a sicko start!

Mattison is a mid-range RB3 that could claw out 12 to 14 fantasy points if you are in a pinch.

Xavier Worthy | WR | Chiefs

Worthy is on 85% of rosters but is starting in only 32% of lineups.

Since the Week 6 bye, Worthy has a 27% target share and a 39% air yards share, averaging 9.6 fantasy points.

While the first-round NFL draft pick hasn’t paid off in a big way yet, this type of underlying data can give us hope. Yes, there is a chance DeAndre Hopkins will expand his involvement in game two. But we must remember, Hopkins hasn’t played more than 70% of the passing plays at any point this year. Even if we bump down Worthy’s latest surge in utilization, he has the speed to produce on fewer looks–we just haven’t seen it yet.

The Buccaneers allow the third-most fantasy points per game (34.7) to opposing pass catchers and the Chiefs boast the third-highest team total (27) on the slate.

Worthy is a low-end WR3 this weekend but offers WR2 upside.

Jonnu Smith | TE | Dolphins

Smith is available in 93% of leagues and is in less than 5% of starting lineups.

Smith has a 74% route participation since the Week 6 bye. With more playing time, his Utilization Score is up to 8.4 over that span, which would make him a mid-range TE1. He has averaged 14.3 points over the two games.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are still the top options in this offense, but Smith is moving up the ranks based on this trend. Against heavy zone coverage teams, targets spread out, which often benefits the backs and tight ends. That has been the case for Jonnu this year. His target share jumps from 9% versus man to 19% against zone. The Bills play the seventh-most zone coverage in the NFL.

Smith is a mid-range TE2 but offers mid-range TE1 upside.