We’re back for more gambling after evading another hurricane leaving Sanibel Island. We’re all good but I wasn’t really in the mood to identify some betting angles after we got back. We vacationed from our vacation by going to see Megalopolis (not good!!) instead. Week 4 was a positive week for us and we hope to come off the bye week stronger than Kirk Ferentz! which isn’t saying much)

RECAP:

• Penn State -28.5 v UCLA: -1.1u
• UCLA at Penn State OVER 46.5: -1.1u
• Iowa at Ohio State OVER 45.5: -1.1u
• USC at Minnesota OVER 48: -1.1u
• Washington -1.5 v Michigan: +1u
• Northwestern +455 v Indiana: -1u

Last week: 1-5 (-4.4u)
Total: -5.4u (12-16)

YIKES. Rough week.

But we have enough of a baseline to understand what is working and what is not. Over/unders, I am -3.8u a cooool 5-8. But we can identify a clear over bias which is hurting me – 3-7. So let’s maybe cool it on the overs?

Against the spread, I’m a manageable 7-6 and even better 6-4 when going with favorites. So a decent feel there.

There’s half the season left, we can turn it around!!

Friday

Saturday

Coming off byes: Illinois Fighting Illini, Maryland Terrapins (whoops)

OFF: Indiana Hoosiers, Michigan State Spartans, Michigan Wolverines, Nebraska Cornhuskers

All lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

Let’s start with the biggest number on the board. Illinois being favored by over 3 touchdowns against the decrepit Boilermakers. MORE LIKE SPOILERMAKERS HAHAH I regret to inform Ryan Walters that his former boss, Bret Bielema is a cool 4-0 against the spread off of a bye while at Illinois. At Arkansas he was 4-3 and at Wisconsin he was 5-1. The man is simply stellar off byes. 23.5 is a big number, really big. But Purdue STINKS. Illinois -23.5

Michigan & MSU losing was the only east-to-west game last week which brings that to: 1-5 SU; 2-4 ATS; 4-2 O/U. We got three of them this week and I feel like this is the week it flips. It’s been all favorites who have won who have won up to this point and we have 3 road favorites heading west.

I simply think that Ohio State is the best team in the country and will prove it tonight. OSU -3

UCLA has yet to score more than 17 points. That sound you hear is Brian Ferentz screaming into the void. Minnesota -4

As far as west going east, we had USC losing at Minnesota & UCLA to Penn State. Wisconsin waxed the floor with Purdue (see above) on their return so that…

Returning teams: 2-1 straight up; 2-1 ATS; O/U 2-1
Traveling teams: 0-5 straight up; 2-3 ATS; O/U 1-4

I am falling into the trap of simply thinking Iowa is the better team. It’s not that I think they’re undervalued at -3 but I do think the loss to OSU (a really freaking good team) is maybe putting too high of a standard on Iowa? Yeah, they lost and lost bad but do you remember they lost much much worse to a slightly worse OSU team two years ago. There was nothing good to take from that game. Anyways, Iowa shows up and holds on for dear life against a team who will dink and dunk and maybe hit one over the top but still come up short. Iowa -3

There it is… 4 games, 4 favorites.