For the gambling degenerates, here are our Week 18 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Browns at Ravens (-20): The Ravens will clinch the AFC North if they win this game, while the Browns are pretty clearly tanking, as they are starting Bailey Zappe, who will be the Browns’ 40th starting quarterback since 1999. The other 39, and their number of starts with the Browns:

1. Baker Mayfield: 59
2. Tim Couch: 59
3. Derek Anderson: 34
4. Colt McCoy: 21
5. Brandon Weeden: 20
6. Deshaun Watson: 19
7. Charlie Frye: 19
8. Brian Hoyer: 16
9. DeShone Kizer: 15
10. Kelly Holcomb: 12
11. Brady Quinn: 12
12. Josh McCown: 11
13. Jacoby Brissett: 11
14. Trent Dilfer: 11
15. Jeff Garcia: 10
16. Jason Campbell: 8
17. Johnny Manziel: 8
18. Cody Kessler: 8
19. Doug Pederson: 8
20. Jameis Winston: 7
21. Seneca Wallace: 7
22. Joe Flacco: 5
23. Robert Griffin III: 5
24. Dorian Thompson-Robinson: 5
25. Luke McCown: 4
26. Jake Delhomme: 4
27. Tyrod Taylor: 3
28. Ken Dorsey: 3
29. Ty Detmer: 2
30. Case Keenum: 2
31. P.J. Walker: 2
32. Austin Davis: 2
33. Kevin Hogan: 1
34. Jeff Driskel: 1
35. Thaddeus Lewis: 1
36. Nick Mullens: 1
37. Connor Shaw: 1
38. Spergon Wynn: 1
39. Bruce Gradkowski: 1

By my count, nine of those guys were on the Eagles’ roster at one time or another, even if only during training camp. Can you name them? (Answer at the bottom of this post.)

Anyway, that’s why this line is 20 points.

Bengals (-2.5) at Steelers: The Bengals have to win and get a lot of help to get into the tourney. The Steelers can win the AFC North with a win and a Ravens loss (not happening).

The Steelers got out to a 9-3 start to the season, but have lost their last three. Those three losses were to the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs. There’s no shame in losing to any of those teams, but they weren’t really competitive in any of those games. They could use a strong performance and confidence boost heading into the playoffs. But also, a win would clinch them the 5 seed, which would mean a first round matchup against the 4 seed Texans instead of the (likely) 3 seed Ravens. 

The Bengals have had sort of an opposite season. They started out 4-8, but have won their last four and are beginning to play up to their capabilities, even if it’s probably too late.

I don’t feel confident in either of these teams, but give me the one that’s playing better lately.

Giants at Eagles (-2.5): As noted in our Eagles mailbag on Friday, the players who will likely get the bulk of the snaps on Sunday could look something like this:

Offense:

QB: Tanner McKee
RB: Will Shipley
WR: Jahan Dotson
WR: Johnny Wilson
WR: Ainias Smith
TE: E.J. Jenkins
LT: Fred Johnson
LG: Trevor Keegan
C: Nick Gates
RG: Tyler Steen
RT: Jack Driscoll

Defense:

EDGE: Bryce Huff
DT: Moro Ojomo
NT: Thomas Booker
DT: Gabe Hall (PS callup)
EDGE Jalyx Hunt
LB: Jeremiah Trotter
LB: Oren Burks
CB: Isaiah Rodgers
S: Sydney Brown
S: Tristin McCollum
CB: Kelee Ringo
Nickel: Eli Ricks or Avonte Maddox

And yet, the Eagles are still favorites! 

The following article is paywalled, but the preview on Google made me legit lol:

Mara “exudes integrity!” Lol. Could you imagine a Philly writer saying the owner of a 3-13 team with a 40-90-1 record since 2017 “exudes integrity?” Like, even if they did, you can’t possibly sell that to what should be a furious fan base, right? But also, tanking is very clearly what they should be doing. Their fans should want them to tank. There’s nothing wrong with it, in my view, and they’d be incredibly stupid not to. 

But, if you’ll recall, former head caoch Joe Judge got super mad when the Eagles tanked in the final game of the 2020 regular season, thus eliminating the 6-10 (🤣) Giants from winning the division instead of the then Washington Football Team.

Beyond Judge’s infantile rant four years ago, Mara also has professed numerous times over the years that he is vehemently against tanking. So these dummies are going to try to win, at least from an organizational standpoint.

And you know what? I’m taking the Eagles anyway, because these Giants players likely can’t wait for their miserable season to just be over, whereas the Eagles’ backups will be hungry for a chance to play and show that they deserve elevated roles in 2025 and beyond.

Saints at Buccaneers (-14): If the Bucs win they clinch the NFC South. The Saints have looked atrocious to close the season without Derek Carr.

Bills (-3) at Patriots: This game is the AFC version of Eagles-Giants in that the Bills are locked into the 2 seed and resting starters against a garbage division rival. The Patriots will own the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 draft if they lose.

Bears at Packers (-10): The Packers would surely rather play the Rams or Buccaneers than the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs, so they are playing their starters in this game hoping to get the 6 seed instead of the 7 seed. The Bears have lost 10 straight, the longest losing streak in the NFL.

Commanders (-6.5) at Cowboys: Like the Packers above, the Commanders would prefer to avoid playing in Philly in the wildcard round, so they are playing their starters. After the 41-7 drubbing they took in Philly, the Cowboys have their bags packed for Cabo.

Jaguars at Colts (-3.5): The biggest “who cares” game in a weekend full of them.

Panthers at Falcons (-8.5): The Falcons still have a chance to win the NFC South with a win and a Buccaneers loss. However, they stink and the Panthers have played hard all season despite being dead months ago. This line is too high. I’ll take the 8.5 points.

Texans at Titans (-1.5): The Texans are locked into the 4 seed. “Locked Into the 4 Seed” should be the AFC South motto.

Dolphins (-1) at Jets: Hmmm… tough call here. On the one hand, the Dolphins have proven that they can’t play in the cold. On the other hand, they have something to play for (they’re in with a win and a Broncos loss), and for some weird reason Vegas has been overrating the Jets all season, even after it was clear that Aaron Rodgers is cooked and that team is straight garbage. Think I’ll just stay away.

Chiefs at Broncos (-10): The Broncos clinch with a win. Carson Wentz and other backups get the start for the 1 seed Chiefs.

Chargers (-4.5) at Raiders: The following video of Dan Campbell, Jim Harbaugh, and Bill Belichick pretending like it’s impossible to rest starters because there aren’t enough players on the roster to successfully pull that off — you know, when teams do it literally every year, including about a half dozen this year — irrationally annoyed me.

Like, if your reasoning is that you want to keep playing starters because you think your team could lose their edge or momentum or whatever if they sit, I might disagree but I can at least buy that as an actual reason to do it. But saying that you simply don’t have enough players to rest starters is ridiculous nonsense. And then you have media folks saying, “This is so interesting to me.” Lol.

Anyway, the Chargers are playing their starters, not because they can’t, but because they’d rather be the 5 seed and play the 4 seed Texans in the first round. Can’t say that if you’re Harbaugh.

Seahawks (-7) at Rams: The Rams are currently the 3 seed, and if they lose they could be the 4 seed if the Bucs win. They’re resting starters. That’s an interesting choice, seeing as they’ll get the Vikings or Lions in the first round if they’re the 4 seed instead of (likely) the Commanders if they’re the 3 seed. There’s also the possibility that they’ll miss out on a divisional round home game if they advance that far and the 2 seed Eagles get bounced in the wildcard round.

I’m typically for resting starters, but I think the Rams are taking it too far in this case.

49ers at Cardinals (-4.5): Both of these teams collapsed down the stretch, with the Niners losing six of their last seven, and the Cardinals losing five of their last six.

Vikings at Lions (-3): This matchup is the Week 18 main event, with the 1 seed in the NFC at stake. 

Detroit’s corners and linebackers are going to have a hard time covering Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, Jalen Nailor, and Aaron Jones. With all of the Lions’ injuries up front, they can’t make up for it with pressure on the quarterback. Their outstanding safety duo can only do so much.

On the other side of the ball, while I respect the Lions’ offense and am sure that they will put points on the board, I also think this aggressive Vikings defense is willing to live with that as long as they are able to make a few big plays of their own, an approach I like against a juggernaut offense.