NFL Week 18 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

To be perfectly honest, in 30+ years of betting on NFL games, I can’t remember a single week as frustrating, bizarre, and infuriating as last week. Not only did favorites and public plays continue to roll at an unprecedented pace, but I lost a game where my 3.5-point favorite won while holding the opponent to 3 points, and two other games where I had underdogs of 4 points lose in overtime after making incredible plays late to force the ties. In both instances, I was clamoring for the teams to go for 2 and the regulation wins because they were playing better offenses. As such, I dropped my season record back to exactly .500, 75-75-2 ATS (50%). It has been a regrettable season, especially after the way things went the last two years. Hopefully, I can finish things strong with Week 18 and the playoffs. Let’s kick off the 2025 NFL calendar with a look at the season finales.

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Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

For as much as I usually don’t like playing big numbers like this game has in the NFL, it’s tough to see any scenario in which Cleveland puts up much of a fight against Baltimore with the AFC North title on the line. The only things I would even consider would be that it was a divisional rivalry, and Cleveland actually won last time out. However, this Ravens’ team seems very focused as evidenced by the rout at Houston on Christmas. The Texans scored just 2 points in that one. The Ravens have allowed just 11 PPG in their last three games. 

Meanwhile, Cleveland has mustered a total of 16 points in its last three outings. It would seem that head coach John Harbaugh’s team might only need 24 points to cover this one. With Baltimore’s offense on a roll, it should be noted that QB Lamar Jackson is 29-9 SU and 24-13 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018. 

There are, of course, several late-season betting situations to also consider. First, in NFL December/January regular season games since 2012, home teams with at least four more wins than their opponent are 147-32 SU and 102-75 ATS (57.6%), including 121-17 SU and 81-56 ATS when favored by 6-points or more. Second, in NFL December/January regular season games since 2012, road underdogs allowing 24.0 PPG or more are just 36-158 SU and 83-107 ATS (43.7%). Finally, as I mentioned briefly, Cleveland actually won the earlier game between these rivals, making this a revenge scenario, and teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 42-15 SU and 36-21 ATS (63.2%) in the rematch contest.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: It’s a big number (-18.5), but Baltimore has earned it and should cover

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

I follow several vocal sports experts on X who either live in the Indy area or are big fans of the Colts. For perhaps valid reasons, the team’s leadership is vilified on a weekly basis, regardless of winning or losing. I’m not sure what those people’s expectations were for the 2024 season, but from an outside perspective, this has not been anywhere near as bad of a campaign for the teams as what I have read. At 7-9, this team is only a bit below where they were expected to be by oddsmakers (8.5 season win total at DK). And to be fair to head coach Shane Steichen, he has been dealing with a uniquely impossible QB situation to manage. Still, he takes care of business against lesser teams and is on a 12-3 SU and ATS run vs. poor offensive teams scoring

This is also a team that seems to rebound well after bad performances, as Indianapolis is 30-15 SU and 32-11 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss since 2011. The opponent for this week, Jacksonville, is on a horrific 5-40 SU and 12-33 ATS skid vs. teams with better records since 2011. The Jaguars also fit the bill of a couple of nice late-season fade systems: 1) In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, road teams scoring fewer than 19 PPG and playing as dogs of +13 points or fewer are just 33-124 SU and 56-98 ATS (36.4%). And 2) In NFL December/January regular season games since 2012, road underdogs allowing 24.0 PPG or more are just 36-158 SU and 83-107 ATS (43.7%). The Colts can start looking forward to a better 2025 with a win here, but they aren’t a very public favorite this week, which I like.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: I’m going with Indianapolis to cover the 5 points vs. Jacksonville

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

It was entertaining watching QB Michael Penix lead his team to a near upset at Washington last week. You can clearly see that the Falcons have a lot to look forward to with him taking over next season. This week, however, it would seem that he has been saddled with a little too much pressure by oddsmakers, as Atlanta sits as an 8-point favorite in what is being exaggerated as a “must-win” game. Even with a win, the chances of them winning the division with help from the Saints over Tampa are remote. 

The opponent for this week is a Carolina team that has shown some life in the second half of the season, with last week being an exception to the rule. That said, I would expect Carolina and head coach Dave Canales to continue to build on some of the progress they have shown down the stretch. As it stands, this is a rather tough line spot for Atlanta, who is just 38-66 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012. Head coach Raheem Morris is on a 12-15 SU and 10-17 ATS slide in home games, and re-tread head coaches, in general, have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade, with a home mark of just 91-120-1 ATS (43.1%). 

This group of coaches has also been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 100-70 SU but just 63-96-11 ATS, for 39.6%! Carolina was walloped in Tampa last week, but there is an unusual but successful late-season betting system indicating that since 2014, NFL teams coming off divisional losses and now playing on the road have gone 63-69 SU but 76-52 ATS (59.4%) in the follow-up game. I expect Carolina to compete well here.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: I got Carolina +8 in Atlanta

Sunday, 1:00 p.m ET

If there is any real #1 public bet game of the week in the NFL, this is it. At both DraftKings and Circa according to the betting splits pages on VSiN, there is no team that is getting as much support as Washington. After all, the Commanders clinched a playoff spot last week and can earn the #6 seed with a win here. Does that make it a “must-win?” I don’t think that motivation is going to be prevalent, and in fact, I would suggest that the chances for a letdown are even greater. 

They will face a Dallas team that came to life in the second half, of course, discounting last week’s turnover-laden blowout loss at Philly. Head coach Mike McCarthy’s team was on a 4-1 SU and ATS surge prior, scoring 27.4 PPG in the process. The Cowboys have also been one of the league’s best teams in divisional games lately, going vs. divisional opponents since 2016. 

Looking at the Commanders’ combination of retread coach Dan Quinn and rookie QB Jayden Daniels, we have a couple of other angles that suggest this might be a difficult covering spot. First, retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 100-70 SU but just 63-96-11 ATS, for 39.6%! Second, the results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 122-117-1 ATS (51%) in home games but just 104-130-2 ATS (44.4%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, Week 10-EOY, they are just 35-106 SU and 57-82-2 ATS (41%). If you recall, the Cowboys upended the Commanders 34-26 in a surprising November upset. Did you know, however, that Dallas is 16-1 to the Over in its last 17 home rematch games, and that Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of WAS-DAL series in Dallas? I see two pretty nice plays in this game.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: I’ll take Dallas +4.5 and Over 44 in this NFC East clash

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

In its last 10 games, Houston has gone just 4-6 SU and ATS. Even still, the Texans have managed to clinch the divisional title in the weak AFC South. This week’s contest against Tennessee has become a “meaningless” game accordingly. However, if you’re a member of the Texans, at this point, isn’t it essential that the team puts together a good performance before heading into next week’s playoff tilt? I can’t think of another playoff-bound team that needs to generate more momentum this week. 

There probably aren’t many teams I’d want to face right now to generate momentum more than the Titans. Have you considered that Tennessee is currently on a 7-27 SU and 7-26-1 ATS skid in Sunday games? That’s crazy bad, and it’s hard to envision this team mustering up the effort to close the season strong when the potential first pick in April’s draft is on the line.

The Titans are the subject of a nice late season fade system: In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright and playing as underdogs or favorites of less than 3 points are just 45-107 SU and 62-91 ATS (40.5%).

 Of course, everyone knows how poorly Houston played on Christmas Day vs. Baltimore. Don’t overreact to that, however, as NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 20-36 SU but 36-20 ATS (64.3%) over the last decade-plus. 

My “starter rest games” article from earlier this week also revealed that 1) underdogs in the games where teams are resting starters are on a 23-11 ATS run (67.6%), 2) over the last 13 years, the team resting its starters has a nice ATS edge of 20-14-2 ATS (58.8%) mark in Week 17/18 games, and 3) road teams have performed exceptionally in resting starters games, going 16-17 SU and 23-8-1 ATS (74.2%) over the last 12 seasons, pulling seven outright upsets. This is a very small line, but it would still be an “upset,” and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Houston starters at least play partially.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: I’ll take Houston +1.5 in Tennessee

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

A gritty effort from Denver at Cincinnati last Saturday came up short. Now, the Broncos find themselves in a potentially must-win situation versus Kansas City. I say potentially because if the Bengals lose at Pittsburgh on Saturday, this will essentially become a meaningless game with head coach Sean Payton’s team already into the playoffs. As such, I would probably be comfortable waiting till Sunday to bet this game if you like Denver, which I do. I don’t think there is any risk in the line going higher than -10.5 since it is already priced with the Chiefs starters resting. With that in mind, at either the current price or the Denver meaningless price, I still prefer the Broncos here. 

Why? Well, for one, head coach Sean Payton has a great way of getting his teams to bounce back after road defeats, as he is 16-9 SU and 19-5-1 ATS in the last 25 games when coming off an outright road loss. Secondly, this late-season system will also be in play: Since 2015, NFL teams with winning percentages of 83% or higher are just 50-37 SU and 32-54-1 ATS (37.2%) in December/January regular season games, including 11-26-1 ATS vs. divisional opponents. Third, regarding QB Bo Nix, who has enjoyed a tremendous season since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 41-11 SU and 38-13-1 ATS (74.5%).

Finally, assuming the line stays where it is, in rematch games where point spreads have changed 17 points or more from the prior contest, the team that the line moved favorably towards is on a 37-1 SU and 27-11 ATS (71.1%) run. That is a pretty strong trend at 37-1 outright, and considering that in recent years, Chiefs “meaningless game” lines have never been anywhere near this level, I believe oddsmakers know how irrelevant the game will be to them.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: I’ll take the Broncos at wherever the Sunday line winds up

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

The Rams managed to clinch the NFC West Division last weekend over Seattle by a deep common opponent tiebreaker after surviving a tight contest versus Arizona. To me, they looked like a team very relieved to have the playoff-clinching decided before having to face the Seahawks in head-to-head play this Sunday. As such, I think Seattle and head coach Mike Macdonald will be playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder against a partial Rams team. 

Even without the fact that head coach Sean McVay’s team will be resting starters, they were already in a difficult covering spot for this one, as in NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on winning streaks of at least three games but not good offensively (scoring

That sets them up nicely for Sunday according to this angle: NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 19-13 SU and 21-10-1 ATS (67.7%) record. If you recall from my NFL article earlier this week, road teams have performed exceptionally in resting starters games, going 16-17 SU and 23-8-1 ATS (74.2%) over the last 12 seasons.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: I’ll take Seattle -6.5 here against a Rams team that truly will tank

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

For as well as both the Vikings and Lions offenses have been playing, I was still a bit taken aback to see this total get released so high in such an important game. Minnesota’s defense has played very well lately. Though banged up, the Detroit defense has played very well on occasion. I don’t think either of these coaches wants to get into a game that winds up in the 30s or higher for both. My initial projections for this game by my effective and bettors’ ratings pegged the total at 52.3 and 53.0, respectively. In fact, I don’t think I’ve had a game off by that much all year on those ratings. Who is right, me or those behind the counter? 

Well, according to bettors at DraftKings, the bookies are right, and perhaps even low, as 83% of the handle and 75% of the bets supported an opening total of 57. Even so, the number has still dropped to 56.5. Isn’t that an eye-opener in itself? Taking a closer look at the defensive numbers, both of these teams hold opponents at least 1.8 points below their scoring averages. Applying the math, Minnesota would be bound for 24 points, Detroit 30. Still not reaching the 56.5 mark. 

If you’re looking for trend angles like I do, consider that Minnesota’s QB Sam Darnold is 25-11 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019 and that Detroit’’s head coach Dan Campbell is 13-7 Under the total in games after allowing 30+ points since 2015. The fact that this game is so high stakes and on Sunday Night Football also intrigues me, as I think both coaches will be a little more conservative than usual. As it is, Detroit in 7-1-1 Under in its last nine on SNF, and Minnesota shows an overall 23-12 Under primetime record since 2015.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: I’ll go against the grain on SNF and call for an Under 56.5

For more NFL Week 18 best bets, visit the NFL Week 18 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.