Week 13 upsets shake up College Football Playoff ranking projection

Posted by Admin November 26, 2024 Football

A hectic weekend of upsets in the Power Four will result in major movement in the SEC and a nosedive for Indiana in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings.

There won’t be any change in the top four of the new rankings, with Oregon, Ohio State, Texas and Penn State continuing to lead the way. The first notable change comes with Notre Dame replacing Indiana at No. 5 following the Hoosiers’ 38-15 loss against the Buckeyes.

Maybe the biggest debate near the top of this week’s rankings comes at No. 10, where the playoff selection committee will deliberate between Indiana and Boise State. This is an important discussion because of the possibility that a potential at-large team lower than No. 10 gets bumped out of the bracket in favor of the eventual Big 12 champion.

Another key decision to look for lower in the rankings is the pecking order of three-loss SEC teams. Even after losing to Oklahoma, Alabama can begin to evaluate potential pathways to the playoff by coming in ahead of Mississippi and South Carolina.

Here’s how the cream of the crop should look on Tuesday night:

1. Oregon (11-0)

Oregon continues to be guaranteed a playoff berth regardless of what happens this weekend against Washington and in the Big Ten championship game. The Ducks have dropped three in a row to the rival Huskies, each by a field goal.

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2. Ohio State (10-1)

Ohio State’s also in great shape for the playoff but won’t be able to book a ticket for the Big Ten championship game without a rivalry win against Michigan. An unexpected loss would open the door for Indiana or Penn State to meet the Ducks and dump the Buckeyes into the at-large discussion.

3. Texas (10-1)

Chaos across the SEC has made things much, much easier for Texas and made the Longhorns an at-large favorite even without a conference championship. This is despite a schedule that is devoid of any marquee wins, though victories against Michigan, Oklahoma and Florida have taken on deeper meaning know that each has scrambled to reach bowl eligibility.

4. Penn State (10-1)

Penn State narrowly avoided disaster with a 26-25 win against Minnesota. The Nittany Lions head into a home game against Maryland with a chance to finish second in the Big Ten. But even if Ohio State closes things out against Michigan, a win against the Terrapins would keep Penn State at home for the playoff’s opening round.

5. Notre Dame (10-1)

The Irish clobbered Army 49-14 and continue to surge into postseason play. A nine-game winning streak since September’s loss to Northern Illinois has Notre Dame in position to earn an at-large bid even with a loss at Southern California.

6. Miami (10-1)

One more victory will clinch Miami’s spot opposite SMU in the ACC title game. That will require winning on the road against Syracuse, which beat Connecticut last weekend to secure the program’s first eight-win finish since 2018. Syracuse ranks second nationally in passing yards per game and first in attempts per game.

7. Georgia (9-2)

Georgia and Tennessee were the big winners from Saturday’s SEC bloodbath. Georgia clinched a spot in the SEC championship game and awaits the winner of Texas and Texas A&M. Given the convincing win earlier this year against the Longhorns, the Bulldogs have to be favored to win the league and earn a first-round bye.

8. Tennessee (9-2)

Tennessee went from out of the at-large picture to locked into the field with a win against Vanderbilt. The Volunteers have won five in a row in the series, including all three meetings under coach Josh Heupel by a combined score of 149-45.

9. SMU (10-1)

Already set for the ACC title game, SMU can also line itself into position for an at-large bid by beating California. While this would hinge on some developments elsewhere in the Power Four, a close loss to the Hurricanes would leave the Mustangs with a solid argument for the bracket.

10. Indiana (10-1)

This isn’t a sure thing by any means. Boise State is another contender for this spot, though the Broncos’ 17-13 win against Wyoming won’t do much to move the committee. Boise has better wins — Washington State and UNLV trump Washington and Michigan — and a better loss, by a field goal, at Oregon compared to the Hoosiers’ more lopsided loss in Columbus. But Indiana has the same record while playing in a Power Four league and more game control in wins than Boise, which might be enough.