Photo:
Gonzalo Anteliz Jr. / Eclipse Sportswire
Let’s take a look at Wednesday’s nine-race program on what looks to be another gorgeous day at Tampa Bay Downs as I present my five favorite wagering events.
Best bet: Spanish Delight, race 2
Best value bet: Catalina Express, race 4
Race 2
No. 5 Spanish Delight (even, morning-line favorite) should canter vs. this group if she runs back to any of her last three efforts. Samy Camacho getting the call only strengthens that conviction. No. 4 Delta Charm (5-1) won each of her previous two dirt tries before a misfire last time out. The return work here was promising. No. 2 Singsational (6-1) can land a share based on her sharp last-out effort here two weeks ago.
How I’d bet it, based on a $100 budget: $15 exacta 5/4, $5 exacta 5/2
Race 4
No. 4 Catalina Express (4-1) brings some up-and-down performances into this one, but the downs have been on surfaces other than fast dirt. If you handicap him based on his “ups” and his 9: 1-1-4 record all-time on the surface he’ll race on here, then this runner is live. No. 2 Midnight Onyx (7-2) has looked like a tweener based on his six-furlong and route tries. Don’t be surprised if seven panels fits him like a glove. No. 3 Sincerito (12-1) has had stamina problems in the past but gets in very light with 10-pound bug Yolber Torres.
How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 2/3/4, $3 exacta 4/2,3
Race 6
No. 4 God’s Timing (9-5, morning-line favorite) might have lost his first start against winners at the gate, but his debut score was quite sharp. The stretchout is a question mark for him, but Camacho sees fit to climb aboard for Saffie Joseph Jr. No. 2 Greyzer (7-2) ran fast races at Delaware over the summer and is a three-time winner over this course. No. 3 Conspiracy Fact (3-1) was a solid 6: 2-3-0 at Tampa last season and brought that consistent form to Delaware with a win and a second prior to a complete dud of an effort last time out. Bounce back is possible.
How I’d bet it: $3 trifecta box 2/3/4
Race 8
No. 4 Brookmesa (6-1) and No. 5 Yellow Feathers (7-2) both drop out of an ungraded stakes at Laurel after each ran out of the money. Both runners are multiple winners on dirt and working well ahead of their respective returns, but the former gets the tepid nod at the better odds with Camacho in the irons. No. 1 Adios Babe (3-1, morning-line favorite) looked good in her last two under the care of Victor Barboza. Juan Avila, hitting at 21% with new acquisitions, takes over the training, but this is a jump up in class.
How I’d bet it: $8 exacta 4/5, $4 exacta 4/1, $4 exacta 5/4, $4 exacta 5/1
Race 9
The nightcap goes through No. 11 Rose View (5-2, morning-line favorite), who is clearly faster than these on paper as well as classier shipping in from Gulfstream. Her biggest obstacle is the fact that she’s stuck on the also-eligible list. Assuming she runs, I’ll key her over No. 2 Rozay Summer, No. 4 Little Martha (6-1) and No. 5 Compass Rises (4-1). Rozay Summer brings respectable synthetic form from Presque Isle into this one. Little Martha stretches out and adds Lasix off a score of her own at Presque Isle for Ron Potts. Compass Rises is 1-for-15 lifetime but can pick up the pieces late with a clean trip.
How I’d bet it if 11 runs: $8 exacta 11/2,4,5
How I’d bet it if 11 scratches: $4 exacta box 2/4/5
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.
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