Photo:

Carlos J. Calo / Eclipse Sportswire

Churchill Downs should be able to get its entire 10-race all-dirt Wednesday program in before the rain begins to fall. I’ll take you through the program as I share my five favorite betting events.

Best bet: Saranac Lake (race 1)

Best value bet: Connive (race 9)

Race 1

No. 4 Saranac Lake (even, morning-line favorite) was much the best in her first start on fast dirt when last seen. A repeat of that effort would be more than enough to beat this bunch. Can’t knock the connections in Joe Sharp and Tyler Gaffalione, who are red-hot right now. No. 1 Grace Given (2-1) has hit the exacta in three of her last four dirt starts and should land a share. No. 2 Tres Chic (5-2) has had trouble finding the track since earning her maiden diploma in April, finishing fourth of 10 in an N2L claimer here back in June, butis best of the rest.

How I’d bet it, based on a $100 budget: $12 trifecta 4/1/2, $8 trifecta 4/2/1

Race 4

No. 4 Princess Is Olivia (7-5, morning-line favorite) rewarded trainer Eddie Kenneally’s faith when he entered her in a $30,000 claimer at Keeneland last time out after claiming her in a $16,000 event two-back, making it two straight victories. She can land a third straight triumph vs. this underwhelming group. No. 6 Miss Jeopardy (3-1) lures Gaffalione despite a misfire at Keeneland when last seen. She previously won three of four on dirt with a runner-up result mixed in. No. 3 Very Wealthy (8-1) was also a no-show in Lexington last time out but has two competitive efforts vs. similar from the middle of summer to run back to.

How I’d bet it: $16 exacta 4/6, $4 exacta 4/3

Race 7

No. 6 Hear the Queen (3-1, morning-line favorite) was off slowly at first asking but finished with interest to be a close fifth. The stretchout may work to her advantage. No. 1 Itwillbefun (7-2) was a strong second in her debut here before disappointing next time out at Keeneland. Perhaps the return to Churchill is what she needs. No. 4 Global Allure (4-1) made up ground on a Kentucky Downs course that was not kind to closers this summer in her lone start to date. Her pedigree is more of a dirt one, so she’s a player on the surface switch.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 6/1,4

Race 9

No. 2 Connive (12-1) won convincingly at first asking before running into a buzzsaw in Two Sharp in an allowance race at Keeneland as she finished third. She tries routing today and is bred to get it, and Jose Ortiz retains the assignment. No. 3 Broughty Ferry (10-1) and No. 5 Tweetster (3-1, morning-line favorite) are the runners I’m most interested in underneath; the former owns a 4: 0-4-0 record at Churchill, and the latter has been a narrowly beaten favorite in two straight.

How I’d bet it: $10 win/place 2

Race 10

No. 1 Princess Pom Pom (9-2) flashed early speed when last seen and was able to carry it to a third-place finish. The rail draw simplifies strategy for returning jockey Jesus Castanon, and it looks like she’ll have things her own way up front in the nightcap. No. 7 So Far So Good (20-1) intrigues on the turnback in distance. A repeat of her July 5 effort at Ellis, a sprint against maiden claimers, would contend for the win here. No. 12 Proud Divi (6-1) has never raced on dirt before but has worked over the surface well enough. However, this draw will do her no favors.

How I’d bet it: $12 win 1, $2 win 7, $1 exacta box 1/7/12

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.