Photo:

Ron Flatter – edited

There’s a nine-race Wednesday card on tap at the brief
Churchill Downs September meet, and I’ve got picks and analysis for five of
these tests.

Race 2

No. 7 Tanmancan (7-2) takes another slight step up in class
after a solid debut win in January and a game runner-up result earlier this
month. The upside is there as this son of Speightster strings together starts
for the first time. No. 6 Brazen Boy (3-1) is 1-for-13 lifetime but exits
back-to-back seconds behind next-out winners. Morning-line favorite no. 2 Air
Cav (5-2) was stakes-placed in January, but not much has gone right since,
hence the drop to the claiming ranks. Respect the connections, but tread
carefully.

How I’d bet it based on a $100 budget: $10 exacta 7/6, $4
exacta 6/7, $3 exacta 6,7/2.

Click here for Churchill Downs entries and results.

Race 4

No. 2 Moving to Kentucky (7-2) showed decent speed before
tiring vs. $40,000 claimers on debut and then lacked punch when stretching out
vs. slightly softer on turf. The stretch-out may not make sense in a vacuum,
but coupled with another minor drop in class and a sharp five-furlong prep
work, it does. Morning-line favorite no. 5 Higginsville (5-2) has two efforts
from the spring vs. maiden claimers on dirt to run back to in this spot and
tries a new low. No. 3 Vincita (4-1) is the best of the rest.

How I’d bet it: $7 exacta box 2/5, $3 exacta 2,5/3.

Race 6

Morning-line favorite no. 4 Global Sensation (2-1) won at
this level two back as part of an active three-race win streak. The speed
figures say this one will be very tough in here. No. 1 Beyond Best (12-1)
wasn’t disgraced by the top pick when they met June 27 and cuts back off a
decent second at Horseshoe Indianapolis. No. 2 Got Thunder (5-1) hit the exacta
in five of his last seven starts and is classy enough to contend with these.
No. 5 Timeless Bounty (8-1) could go off an underlay with José Ortiz climbing
aboard combined with recent in-the-money results vs. cheaper at Belterra.

How I’d bet it: $8 exacta 4/1,2, $4 exacta 4/5.

Race 8

No. 10 Save the Trees (7-2) looks like the best closer in a
race packed with speed on paper. He’s 3-for-3 around one turn and gets Ortiz
again. No. 9 Pure Force (9-2) will try to shake off a no-show effort at
Saratoga by getting back to Churchill, where he’s 2-for-2 lifetime. No. 1
Barksdale (5-1) could be quickest of the quick from the rail. A class drop will
aid his chances.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 2/9/10, $4 exacta 10/1,9.

Race 9

No. 10 Ky Do Declare (5-1) probably didn’t belong on turf,
but you can’t fault the connections for gambling on the surface considering the
purses at Kentucky Downs. Dirt routing is what sire Accelerate was known for,
and that’s what Ky Do Declare gets in his second lifetime start. The morning
works suggest he’s capable of breaking through in the nightcap. No. 8 G. Erik
(4-1) did well to rally from 12th to fifth in the mud at first asking. He is eligible
to improve on fast dirt while stretching out. No. 6 Il Marchesse (15-1) looks
like a live long shot based on the morning works. The pedigree is there too
with Hard Spun on top and Curlin below.

How I’d bet it: $10 win 10, $1 exacta box 6/8/10, $2 exacta
box 8/10.

Best Bet: Global Sensation, race 6.

Best value bet: Ky Do Declare, race 9.