The Keeneland fall meet rolls on with another eight-race Wednesday card, and I have picks for five of these heats below.

Best bet: Penny’s Smile (race 5)

Best value bet: Arthur (race 1)

Race 1

No. 8 Arthur (10-1) got a clean break at the right distance to score vs. slightly softer last time out. A repeat of that effort might be good enough to take this if No. 6 Good Like Magic (even, morning-line favorite) doesn’t fire. The probable post-time favorite is clearly fastest on paper but takes yet another discouraging drop in class. No. 1 Hoppin John (6-1) is the best of the rest.

How I’d bet it, based on a $100 budget: $10 win 8, $5 exacta box 6/8

Race 2

No. 4 Deeply Hidden (2-1, morning-line favorite) might be able to ration his speed better going longer with Irad Ortiz Jr. taking over. He nearly won when dangled for a tag in June. No. 5 Lumber Legacy (12-1) misfired at Kentucky Downs last time out but hinted at talent when turf sprinting at Ellis Park on debut. He drilled a bullet on dirt to train for this. No. 2 Mr Lee (20-1) finished with interest when going shorter at Churchill and can grab a slice with improvement.

How I’d bet it: $12 exacta 4/5, $8 exacta 4/2

Race 5

No. 7 Penny’s Smile (9-2) finally got on her preferred surface when she aced a group of maidens at Kentucky Downs. She’s fast enough to make it two straight wins vs. these. No. 6 Moon Spun (4-1) never has missed the board in five career starts but has only one win to her credit. No. 12 Beets (8-1) may improve turning back in distance. Note the two sharp, short workouts ahead of this start for Bill Mott.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 7/6,12

Race 6

No. 6 Footprint (15-1) makes his first start since a mysterious flop in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes. He finished second in the Rushaway on synthetic and had two third-place finishes in a row on dirt before that, with a narrowly beaten defeat vs. Seize the Grey mixed in. Luis Saez sees fit to climb aboard, and the return works are promising. No. 8 Yellow Brick (4-1, morning-line favorite) is certainly a threat to win this based on his last speed figure as he might have scored last time out with a clean start. But his 1-for-13 record is cause for pause. No. 9 Lips Say Bliss (9-2) could make the lead in what looks like a fairly paceless race. He’s a bit cheaper than these but can at least land a share.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 6/8/9, $2 exacta 8/6,9, $4 win 6

Race 7

No. 11 Idratherbeblessed (9-2) outfinished No. 12 Better Bet (7-2, morning-line favorite) by nearly four lengths in a similar spot at Kentucky Downs when last seen and was a runaway winner two back at Ellis Park. Better Bet is not the most consistent runner in the field but has had excuses for his misfires and was second in his lone try at this course and distance. No. 7 King Curlin (8-1) could make an impact on the class drop.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta box 11/12

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.