Photo:

Carson Blevins / Eclipse Sportswire

Wednesday is closing day at Kentucky Downs with 10 races on tap, including the $1.6 million Dueling Grounds Oaks, and I have free picks for the five of these turf events.

Best bet: Fleming (race 6)

Best value bet: McLovin (race 8)

Race 4

No. 2 Never Really Know (3-1, morning-line favorite) nearly wired a group of maidens at Saratoga when last seen, and a repeat of that effort should be good enough to get the job done in this spot. No. 3 Lush Lips (4-1) beat all but one of 14 rivals in a recent maiden race overseas and is dangerous shipping in and stretching out for Donnacha O’Brien, who names Florent Geroux to ride. No. 6 Fixin to Bee (8-1) should improve on a decent debut by simply getting away from the gate better, and the rider change to Luis Saez can help with that.

How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $10 exacta 2/3, $4 exacta 2/6, $4 exacta 3/2, $2 exacta 3/6

Race 6

No. 6 Fleming (7-5, morning-line favorite) earned a strong speed figure at first asking at Ellis and drilled a bullet in preparation for this. There’s also a rider upgrade in play as Tyler Gaffalione gets a leg up. No. 7 Lucky Mischief (9-2) was more than three lengths behind Fleming when they debuted in the same race on Aug. 18, but he lures Saez and still looks faster than most of these on paper. No. 9 Reverse Merger (8-1) was off slowly but showed late interest to grab fourth in his unveiling. We’ll see if the switch to Geroux helps him break more cleanly. No. 13 Sound Cause (9-2) is stuck on the also-eligible list after finishing a distant second in a maiden race here last week, but the speed figure suggests he’s worth throwing in underneath if he draws in.

How I’d bet it: $8 exacta 6/7,9, $4 exacta 6/13

Race 7

No. 10 Lute Warm (4-1) is getting a bit of a class test, but the speed figures earned in blowout victories at Delaware and Colonial suggest this daughter of Midnight Lute is up to the challenge and yet another runner that Geroux could move forward while catch-riding. No. 1 Join the Dance (6-1) picked up her fourth stakes placing of the year when finishing third as part of a blanket photo for the win at Horseshoe Indy when last seen – respect. No. 7 Justifiable Belle (8-1) is 2-for-2 to start the year and could sit an ideal stalking trip.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 10/1,7

Race 8

No. 5 McLovin (6-1) could upset the 2 1/16th-mile turf marathon that is the inaugural $500,000 Nashville Gold Cup. I’m willing to dismiss his last-place effort at Colonial off an extended layoff to kick off the season as Flavien Prat climbs aboard. McLovin owns a victory over this course as well as two-mile triumph at Far Hills and a near-miss in the two-mile H. Allen Jerkens at Gulfstream. No. 1 The Grey Wizard (7-5, morning-line favorite) is the one to beat off strong triumphs in the two-mile Belmont Gold Cup (G2) and the 1 1/2-mile Cape Henlopen, but there’s certainly no value in backing him at this price. No. 7 Limited Liability (7-2) checked in behind The Grey Wizard in each of his last two starts but wasn’t disgraced either time, and Frankie Dettori climbs aboard.

How I’d bet it: $8 win 5, $4 exacta box 1/5, $2 exacta 1,5/7

Race 9

No. 1 Waves of Mischief (9-2) gets the nod as the runner with the most potential in the $1.6 million Dueling Grounds Oaks. After a sharp first-out victory at Keeneland, she ran into trouble on a less-than-firm turf at Pimlico and didn’t care for the synthetic dirt at Woodbine. But her last-out victory in the Pucker Up (G3) at Ellis suggested what she’s capable of at her best, and I believe more distance will only help. No. 6 Kathynmarissa (7-2, morning-line favorite) was second-best in a highly rated Saratoga Oaks (G2) when last seen and has turned in two bullet works since. No. 5 Siege of Troy (6-1) sheds weight ahead of her stateside debut and is eligible to improve. No. 3 Yatta (15-1) goes second off a layoff and could be sitting on a lifetime best with Prat climbing aboard.

How I’d bet it: $3 exacta 1/3,5,6, $2 exacta key box 1/5,6, $3 win 3

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.