Players to Watch: junior guards R.J. Luis and Deivon Smith

Pitino has some big guards at his disposal, a stark contrast from the backcourt makeup on his championship-winning roster in 2013. This is unfortunately one of those matchups where a 6’7 Jalen Warley would be highly useful at slowing down opposing guards, with the Johnnies’ 6’7 wing — RJ Luis (17.2 PPG) — a matchup nightmare for a roster lacking a lengthy and disruptive on-ball defender. Now, freshman forward Jacob Cofie has shown flashes of brilliance, but he shouldn’t be tasked with defending a non-big in this matchup. The Johnnies have shown Luis at the four, though, as Pitino has often deferred to small-ball lineups built on speed and shooting around center Zuby Ejiofor (11.2 PPG).

Luis has ascended into a do-it-all role for St. John’s as an improved three-point shooter, consistent rebounder, and slashing threat who provides a mismatch on the wings. Unlike the ‘Hoos, each of the Johnnies’ four guards — Luis, Richmond, Smith, and sophomore Simeon Wilcher (10.0 PPG) — are more than capable of creating their own shot. Attacking mismatches against sophomore forward TJ Power and junior guard Andrew Rohde will likely be a part of Pitino’s gameplan. Virginia’s aforementioned wings were evidently no match for Tennessee’s Chaz Lanier, who finished with 26 points on 50% 3PT. 

Smith — a Utah transfer — is yet another lightning-quick guard that sophomore Dai Dai Ames will be responsible for checking. The Kansas State transfer did hold an All-SEC performer in the Vols’ Zakai Zeigler to two points on 11.1% FG last night. Nonetheless, Smith will test Ames with his downhill speed and may have plenty of one-on-one matchups considering the Johnnies’ other threats on the perimeter. It’s entirely possible that the Pack Line confuses a Johnnie offense that likes to go, go, go. It’s possible that their backcourt is thrown off by hedged screens and strong collapses on downhill drives. Most importantly, the defense will have to help early and often on isolation matchups against Power, Rohde, and freshman guard Ishan Sharma.

No longer facing Tennessee, Virginia’s bigs may enjoy a slight advantage over St. John’s in the frontcourt. The Johnnies just allowed Baylor’s Norchad Omier — a 6’7 bruiser forward by way of Miami — to go for 24 points and ten rebounds, and they conceded 16 offensive boards in the process. Virginia’s rebounding was by no means encouraging against Tennessee, but the matchup is a bit less intimidating against a guard-heavy St. John’s. The question of who wins the board battle will play a massive role in this contest.

Sophomore center Blake Buchanan paced a Cavalier frontcourt that scored 15 points against the Vols last night (and freshman Anthony Robinson had four of those in garbage time); Buchanan’s respectable statline of six points and seven rebounds should see a boost tonight, and I’d also love to witness a physical performance from junior forward Elijah Saunders down low. The San Diego State transfer was only one of eight from the field against Tennessee, the nation’s sixth-ranked defensive team according to KenPom. Those interior chances should start to fall against weaker frontcourts. It’s worth keeping an eye on Saunders’ cramping issues, however, which led to him playing sparse minutes in a disastrous second half for Virginia.

If Saunders is limited, does Robinson play any significant minutes? Not yet, I assume, but the freshman’s athleticism is notable on this roster. If Virginia is to win this game, I believe it will come from the improved offensive play of Buchanan. Of course, it would be ideal if junior guard Isaac McKneely replicated his flawless performance against Villanova. However, as defenses key into the ‘Hoos’ primary offensive threat and force others to create their own opportunities, the options need to expand to Buchanan and Saunders, when healthy. 

I do worry about the athleticism of this St. John’s offense and their progress defensively. A heartbreaking loss to Baylor will only spur the Johnnies’ motivation to leave Baha Mar with a win under their belt, especially against a Virginia roster attempting to figure out its identity. A cold shooting night from them may be the ‘Hoos’ only hope to steal this one away.

We’re not counting out the possibility of the Cavaliers responding to their humbling loss to the Volunteers on Thursday night by playing inspired basketball to pick up a ranked victory over the Johnnies. But it’s not likely. The more plausible outcome is that Virginia was destined to be outclassed in The Bahamas by this tournament field of talented, athletic, and well-coached teams. UVA gets its offense going a little bit, but St. John’s ultimately pulls away in the second half.

Score prediction: St. John’s 71, Virginia 56

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