The NFL playoffs begin next week, but the biggest game of the season in the NFC plays out on Sunday Night Football to conclude Week 18. The Minnesota Vikings (14-2) at Detroit Lions (14-2) winner will be the NFC North division champions and secure the No. 1 seed and first round by in the playoffs.

There are just two remaining spots to be determined Sunday for the 14 teams in this year’s playoffs. The Ravens 35-10 win over the Browns Saturday secured the AFC North title. The Bengals 19-17 win over the Steelers keeps their playoff hopes alive while the Steelers hit the road next week in the wild card round.

Late longshot future bets on the Bengals to win the Super Bowl have been most popular at FanDuel and other leading online sportsbooks ahead of Week 18 games.

NFL Week 18 Odds

Pro football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Bet types, odds and terms with listed point spreads on favorites.

• Carolina at Atlanta (-7.5), game total 48.5
• Washington (-6.5) at Dallas, 44.5
• Chicago at Green Bay (-9.5), 41.5
• Houston at Tennessee (-1.5), 36.5
• Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-3.5), 44.5
• Buffalo (-3.5) at New England, 36.5
• New York Giants at Philadelphia (-2.5), 37.5
• New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-14.5), 44.5
• Kansas City at Denver (-10.5), 40.5
• Seattle (-7) at Los Angeles Rams, 38.5
• Miami at New York Jets (-1.5), 38.5
• San Francisco at Arizona9 (-4.5), 42.5
• Minnesota at Detroit (-3), 56.5

Week 18 Betting Trends

While fewer bettors will be willing to risk their money on the Saints or Panthers as big underdogs, or even the dysfunctional Jets, know that since 1990 eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 105-69-4 (60%) against the spread (ATS).

In addition, Action Network points out that favorites or 6 points or more are 30-1 straight up since Week 13 after the Ravens (-20) won and covered Saturday.

Public bettors, who often bet on more favorites, and have been enjoying the holiday season with more winners as well. Over the past three weeks into Week 18, favorites are on a scorching profit-producing run of 35-13 ATS (73%).

Favorites are now 61-16 (79.2%) straight-up since Week 13 after going 14-2 SU in Week 17. Overall, favorites are winning at a 72% clip outright in 2024, the third-best mark for a single-season since 1980.

The NFL weather is always worth monitoring this time of the season, along with updated injury reports as more key injuries, quarterback changes and teams resting more players and starters in Week 18 impact matchups and results.

Vikings-Lions

More betting trends have been favorable for Lions bettors. Head coach Dan Campbell is 50-28-1 ATS (64%) as coach of the Lions (and Dolphins interim coach 2015). That 64% win percentage is the best for any head coach with a minimum 20 games in the Super Bowl era.

Favorites in primetime night games are 45-12 straight up (79%) this season, including 5-0 SU from this same Lions team. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 9-0 SU as favorites in night games, winning by 9.2 points per game.

In addition, the Lions are 46-20-1 ATS (70%) in the regular season over the past four years – the best three-year ATS stretch since the 2016-18 New England Patriots run.

Minnesota has far exceeded preseason expectation set by the leading online sportsbooks. The Vikings win total was set at 6.5 entering the year, and they have 14 wins. They are the first team since the 2015 Panthers to finish at least 6.5 games above their win total. Since realignment in 2002, only the 2004 Chargers and 2004 Steelers finished 7.5 games above their win total. Both those teams won their divisions, but the Chargers lost in the wild card round, and Steelers lost in the AFC Championship Game.

The Vikings and Lions played a thrilling 31-29 game on Oct. 20 in Week 7 action. Minnesota rallied from a 28-17 deficit in the 4th quarter to take a 29-28 lead before Detroit kicker Jake Bates made a 44-yard field goal in the closing seconds for a Lions victory. Quarterback’s Jared Goff and Sam Darnold, who were both recently named to the NFC Pro Bowl team, were supremely efficient in that contest with Goff 22-for-25 and 280 passing yards and 2 TD’s, and Darnold 22-for-27 and 259 yards plus 1 touchdown. The overall total yards including rushing and passing was nearly identical with both near 400 yards at better than 7.0 yards per play.

The Vikings had a scheduling advantage coming off a bye in Week 6, and now the Lions are at a slight disadvantage again off a Monday Night Football win at San Francisco and returing home for the biggest game of the regular season.

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is now the overwhelming favorite (-2000) to win NFL Coach of the Year ahead of Lions coach Dan Campbell (+750), according to odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Goff and Darnold are both top-5 in the NFL in passing yards this season with Goff leading the NFC with 4,398 yards and conference best 8.7 yards per pass. Darnold is next with 4,153 yards and 8.2 yards per pass. Goff has thrown for a career-high 36 TD’s, and also producted career-highs in completion percentage (71.7), passer rating (113.6) and yards per pass attempt. Goff can set his single-season passing yards high with 300 against the Vikings. Darnold’s career-high 35 touchdown passes includes an 18-2 TD-to-INT ratio over his last seven games.

With such efficiency and production and some of the league’s most talented and top skill position players, the game total of 56.5 points is the highest this season at the leading online sportsbooks.

Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports provides additional matchups and advance stats for the Vikings-Lions winner-take-all contest with information you can bet on.

• The Lions surrendered a season-high 4 sacks in the last game against Brian Flores’ Vikings defense but Jared Goff was effective when he got the ball out averaging 8.5 yards per pass play.
• Minnesota’s defense is allowing only -0.15 Expected Points Added (EPA) per target (3rd) and they will contain screens the RB Jahmyr Gibbs, who is averaging 1.65 yards per route run (3rd).
• Goff will instead feature WR Amon-Ra St. Brown on the inside. St. Brown has a 67% success rate this season much higher than the 2nd-best wide receiver, Mike Evans, who has a 63% success rate. The league average success rate for wide receivers is 51%.
• St. Brown has a favorable matchup as he will line up across from Vikings nickelback Byron Murphy, who is surrendering 1.72 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 23rd out of 24 qualifiers.
• I expect Minnesota’s passing attack to be effective as well in a favorable matchup versus a Lions’ defense leading the NFL with a 34% Cover 1 rate and the 7th-highest blitz rate. Sam Darnold is averaging 21% more yppp against Cover 1 compared to other coverages (7th) and 20% more yards per attempt versus the blitz than a standard pass rush (3rd).
• Our model favors Detroit by 1.1 points, with a predicted total of 57.0 points but the Lions apply to a 39-11-1 ATS final game situation and they tend to perform well in high-scoring games (26-5-1 ATS up to -7 when the total on the game is 45 points or higher).

Vikings-Lions Player Props

A shootout is expected like the first meeting in October as the talented skill players, matchups and injuries suggest more betting on players to exceed their prop totals.

The Vikings do have their best defender back for this game after he missed the first meeting against the Lions with a toe injury. Linebacker Blake Cashman leads the Vikings with 104 tackles and also has 4.5 sacks and 8 passes defensed.

But Detroit has been devastated by player injuries on defense. All these players will miss their most important regular season game. Defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (broken leg), DT Alim McNeill (knee, ACL), DT Kyle Peko (pectoral), DE Marcus Davenport (triceps), LB Malcolm Rodriguez (knee, ACL) and CB Khalil Dorsey (ankle) will not be able to play.

• MIN QB Sam Darnold passing yards: Over/Under 290.5
• DET QB Jared Goff passing yards: O/U 281.5
• MIN RB Aaron Jones rushing yards: O/U 57.5
• DET RB Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yards: O/U 87.5, receiving 32.5
• MIN WR Justin Jefferson receiving yards: O/U 93.5
• MIN WR Jordan Addison receiving yards: O/U 66.5
• MIN TE TJ Hockenson receiving yards: O/U 47.5
• MIN WR Jalen Nailor receiving yards: O/U 15.5
• DET WR Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yards: O/U 82.5
• DET WR Jameson Williams receiving yards: O/U 58.5
• DET TE Sam LaPorta receiving yards: O/U 51.5
• DET TE Tim Patrick receiving yards: O/U 20.5

Over/Under receptions:

• 6.5: Jefferson, St. Brown
• 5.5: Addison
• 4.5: Hockenson, LaPorta, Gibbs
• 3.5: Williams

Prop Bet: Vikings RB Aaron Jones over 19.5 receiving yards. This yardage number is up slightly and can also be bet at over 24.5 at +120 odds. The Lions defense is No. 29 in EPA per target allowed to opposing running backs, and Lions starting LB Alex Anzalone (forearm) remains questionable as he returns from injured reserve. Detroit will have a third-string linebacker in place, and Jones has at least 5 targets each of the last two weeks and should be a key part of the Vikings game plan both running and receiving. Jones has surpassed this receiving yardage number in each of the Vikings last three games, and also in the Week 7 contest against the Lions.

Update and additional prop bet is Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown over 6.5 receptions. The Vikings defense has allowed at least 8 receptions to an opponents top receiver in each of the last five games. The Lions offense and St. Brown are the best of the bunch.

Pick: Despite all the supporting trends favoring the Lions, the Vikings are the pick on Sunday Night Football with their top-ranking in EPA per play (-0.096) and far less decimated defense. While Minnesota’s defense has allowed the third-most air yards (2,309), the Lions have surrendered the second-most (2,378). Lions coach Dan Campbell decided to go all out in last week’s Monday Night Football game at San Francisco and push his players and starters in a game Detroit did not have to win. The Vikings rank top-10 on both offense and defense in EPA per play, and they will score their share against the Lions, who have allowed 30+ points three times in December to the Packers, Bills and 49ers. Now coach Campbell the gambler and gunslinger may pay a bigger price against the Vikings. A shootout appears certain in a most entertaining climax to the 272nd and final game of the regular season.

Follow all the NFL teams, schedules, stats, odds and betting news throughout the season and playoffs. Player props continue to be most popular with the watch and wager action driving fan engagement and entertainment while adding more enjoyment and excitement to the games.

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