Alex de Minaur will continue his quest for a Nitto ATP Finals berth when he goes up against Karen Khachanov in the Vienna semifinals on Saturday. The winner will battle either Jack Draper or Lorenzo Musetti for the title.

Karen Khachanov vs. (2) Alex de Minaur

With Andrey Rublev losing to Ben Shelton in the Basel quarterfinals on Friday, De Minaur is gaining ground on the all-important eighth spot in the race to the Nitto ATP Finals. The 10th-ranked Australian will pass Rublev for that position if he captures the title at the Erste Bank Open. So far, so good for De Minaur–but it hasn’t been easy. The No. 2 seed needed three sets against both Jan-Lennard Struff and Jakub Mensik in addition to a first-set tiebreaker against Flavio Cobolli before the Italian retired.

Standing in De Minaur’s way of the Vienna final–and perhaps of a ticket to Turin–is Khachanov. They have split their two previous meetings; De Minaur survived in five sets at the 2020 U.S. Open before Khachanov prevailed 6-3, 6-7(1), 7-5 at the 2022 Dubai tournament. Fatigue is likely even more of a factor right now for the 24th-ranked Russian, as he is coming off an ATP 250 title in Almaty last week. Khachanov has maintained his hot streak with Vienna victories over Thiago Seyboth Wild, Brandon Nakashima, and Matteo Berrettini. This has the makings of a competitive contest, in which case De Minaur would probably have both the mental and physical edge in the latter stages.

Pick: De Minaur in 3

(6) Lorenzo Musetti vs (7) Jack Draper

Musetti and Draper will also be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers on Saturday. Draper has won both of their previous encounters, getting the job done in straight sets at both the 2022 NextGen ATP Finals and last year on the indoor hard courts of Sofia.

Both players have been stellar in 2024, highlighted by Grand Slam semifinal appearances–Musetti at Wimbledon and Draper at the U.S. Open. Somewhat understandably, Musetti has cooled off a bit following huge success on clay (a bronze medal at the Paris Olympics) and grass (runner-up at Queen’s Club prior to his Wimbledon run). The 17th-ranked Italian did very well, though, to upset Alexander Zverev 2-6, 7-6(5), 6-4 in the Vienna quarters. Draper has remained red hot with defeats of Kei Nishikori, Luciano Darderi, and Tomas Machac in mostly routine fashion. The 18th-ranked Brit has to be confident in this matchup based on past results and he also has the advantage on an indoor hard court.

Pick: Draper in 2