If you take a brief look under the hood, it begins to make some sense why KenPom is so low on the Hoos. The end of UVA’s 2023-2024 season obviously did not shower the team in glory, whether you prefer these complex metrics or a simple eye test. From a numbers standpoint, KenPom ranked UVA 68th overall at the end of the year with a lowly ranking of 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency to go along with what KenPom considered the 7th best defense in the country. Qualitatively, Virginia barely snuck into the NCAA Tournament and got blown out by Colorado State in a play-in game, the last in a way-too-long list of blowout losses suffered by the Cavaliers last season.

With the team’s engine, Reece Beekman, departing for the NBA this offseason and no guaranteed Alpha on the roster to replace him, the metrics have no choice but to doubt the Cavaliers. Most of the transfers Virginia has on the roster did not have significant roles on their former teams and thus do not bring an impressive statistical resume with them to Charlottesville. Isaac McKneely is the only returning player from last year’s UVA team who averaged more than five points per game. Until games begin to be played to provide some evidential data points, it’s hard to argue against KenPom’s assessment, even though 13th in the Atlantic Coast Conference seems to maybe drastically underrate Tony Bennett’s track record in the ACC. We’re not sure how that fits into the KenPom puzzle, if at all.

The good news is that KenPom is essentially meaningless until close to the end of the season, when teams are putting the finishing touches on their NCAA Tournament resumes in the hope that they have impressed the committee enough to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. If Virginia gets off to a good start, these metrics should correct themselves rather quickly and the Hoos could very well find themselves in their normal good standing according to KenPom and the other rankings systems.

Here’s how UVA ended each of the last 11 seasons according to KenPom:

2023-2024: 68th overall, 200th offense, 7th defense
2022-2023: 34th overall, 72nd offense, 25th defense
2021-2022: 72nd overall, 85th offense, 59th defense
2020-2021: 19th overall, 17th offense, 36th defense
2019-2020: 42nd overall, 234th offense, 1st defense
2018-2019: 1st overall, 2nd offense, 5th defense
2017-2018: 2nd overall, 1st offense, 11th defense
2016-2017: 12th overall, 50th offense, 2nd defense
2015-2016: 4th overall, 8th offense, 7th defense
2014-2015: 6th overall, 21st offense, 2nd defense
2013-2014: 4th overall, 27th offense, 4th defense

KenPom isn’t alone in being low on the Cavaliers, and the doubts are warranted given how last season ended and given the uncertainty on this team’s roster. But followers of UVA basketball know better than to question Tony Bennett’s ability to get any Virginia team to compete a lot closer to the top of the ACC than 13th.

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