Updating UVA Basketball's NET Metrics After Non-Conference Play

Updating UVA Basketball’s NET Metrics After Non-Conference Play

Posted by Admin December 24, 2024 Basketball

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The non-conference portion of the 2024-2025 Virginia men’s basketball season is officially in the books. The Cavaliers have already played one ACC game, a 63-51 loss at SMU on December 7th, but now Ron Sanchez and company will enter the full conference slate with nothing but ACC games from here on out.

With UVA having a bit of a holiday break with nine days between games, that gives us some time to evaluate where things stand for Virginia at this point in the season. Let’s take a look at the updated NET rankings, the primary sorting tool used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to select and seed the field of 68 at the end of the season. Virginia (7-5) is currently No. 102 in the NET and 10th among ACC teams. Believe it or not, that’s actually an improvement over UVA’s placement in the initial NET rankings back on December 2nd, which had the Cavaliers ranked at No. 125 and 13th among ACC teams.

Here is UVA’s NET profile through the first 12 games of the season:
NET: No. 102
Quad 1: 0-4 | Quad 2: 1-1 | Quad 3: 0-0 | Quad 4: 6-0

Duke – NET No. 3
Pittsburgh – NET No. 11
SMU – NET No. 30
North Carolina – NET No. 34
Clemson – NET No. 39
Louisville – NET No. 53
Florida State – NET No. 82
Stanford – NET No. 83
Notre Dame – NET No. 92
Virginia – NET No. 102
NC State – NET No. 103
Wake Forest – NET No. 105
California – NET No. 129
Syracuse – NET No. 138
Miami – NET No. 162
Georgia Tech – NET No. 173
Boston College – NET No. 204
Virginia Tech – NET No. 210

We’re going to list Virginia’s remaining schedule and indicate which Quadrant each game would fall under given Monday’s NET rankings.

As a reminder:
Quad 1: Home vs. NET 1-30, Neutral vs. NET 1-50, Away vs. NET 1-75
Quad 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quad 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quad 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Virginia’s remaining schedule according to the current NET rankings:

The NCAA Selection Committee places a large emphasis on Quad 1 wins and Quad 3 & 4 losses. As it currently stands, Virginia has five Quad 1 games remaining on its schedule, five Quad 2 games, six Quad 3 games, and three Quad 4 games. That will change, of course, but this gives a rough visualization of UVA’s remaining schedule and which games will be most important for the Cavaliers if they want to have any hope of making a run at the NCAA Tournament.

But we’re not going to sugarcoat it; the outlook of Virginia making the NCAA Tournament this season is pretty bleak. Virginia seems to be at best a middling team in what could be the worst major conference in college basketball this season. Even a strong showing in ACC play might not be enough because of how “down” the conference seems to be this season. Virginia would likely have to go something in the neighborhood of 14-6 or 15-5 in ACC play and pick up at least two or three Quad 1 wins in order to be in consideration for the NCAA Tournament.

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