This is the biggest win for Vanderbilt football since…?

Tom Stephenson: It’s important not to overstate the importance of this win; yeah, it’s a big deal because it’s Week 1 and everybody was kind of paying attention (as opposed to an upset in Week 8 when we’re 3-5 and everybody’s just like “huh, Vandy won an SEC game? Cool, I guess.” It didn’t put us in a bowl game, and hell, we might finish 4-8 and for all we know Virginia Tech is hot garbage and this win won’t be that big of a deal in a few months.

The one thing this win has unequivocally done, though, is re-engage the fanbase, and in that sense this is the Ole Miss game from 2011: a win over a shitty team, sure (Ole Miss was on its way to 2-10), but it was a thumping, and it improved Vanderbilt to 3-0 after the disastrous 2-10 in the Robbie Caldwell year. I’m not saying this is Brigadoon again, but if you wanted the fans to buy in, that was the way to do it.

Cole Sullivan: Thinking about only the time since I’ve been a fan (Fall 2018), I feel like this is the biggest win for Vanderbilt football since the 2018 Buttchuggers game where we beat them to finish 6-6 and force THEM to 5-7, which was oh so satisfying and also incredibly fun. The stadium was into it, students were fired up, and it felt like we had everything figured out. I think we were a better team that year than our record shows, and that kinda added to the excitement of that win and knowing we were going bowling. The Kentucky and Florida wins were great, but at least in hindsight they felt almost whimsical and weird, almost lacking substance, in a way that I don’t think that 2018 game or the Virginia Tech game do.

PatrickSawyer: In the moment or in the grand scheme of things? I think if we are only talking about immediate post-game reactions then it is 2016 against Tennessee when it felt like Derek Mason had the Commodores on track back to Brigadoon by going from 3-9 to 4-8 to 6-6 with the offense exploding down the stretch in 2016 while the defense with Zach Cunningham was looking very impressive. Big picture, we have to hope it is more like the 2012 win over Tennessee when James Franklin put an aggressive stamp on the “Our State” battle. Officially, Vanderbilt holds a 5-5 record since that 2012 win due to THEM vacating the 2019 and 2020 contests for egregious misuse of McDonald’s bags. Outside of the in-state rivalry, the dominant win in 2012 also got Franklin to a bowl in year 2 and was the declaration that SOV was dead under Franklin. The way Saturday unfolded with a big lead that evaporated before forcing OT and finding a way to win is the antithesis of SOV. Hopefully, that mental toughness and ability handle adversity holds.

Andrew VU ‘04: Beating Auburn in ‘08 with ESPN College GameDay on campus. You know, the “You People are Blocking the Library” game. We hadn’t been to a bowl game since 19-Dickity-Two. Back when I was wearing an onion on my belt, as was the style at the time. Coach Bobby Johnson had finally outlawed enough swear words to get the football Gods’ attention, and we had opened the season with wins over Miami (OH), South Cackalacky (yes, there was a time when we did beat the Game Penises), Rice, and Ole Piss. We were not used to this, what do they call it… whinging? No, winning. Anyway, that was the highest CoBoJo would fly, as the team then tried their damnedest to let us down, with 4 straight losses—even one to Duke—before finally beating Kentucky and locking in our first bowl trip since, you know, the whole onion-belt fashion trend. We would then win said bowl game over Boston College in the most Vanderbilt way ever… with a Punter winning MVP. Anyway, I was wearing an onion on my belt, which was the style at the time.

How back are we?

Tom Stephenson: We’re back enough that I don’t have any pending sense of doom about the next two games against Alcorn State and Georgia State, and I’m looking at that Missouri game on the 21st and saying “heeeeeeeeey, that could be interesting.” That’s as back as I’m willing to say we are at the moment.

Cole Sullivan: I already booked my stays in Atlanta. Yes, plural.

PatrickSawyer: So back that people are excited about a game against Alcorn State because it feels like we will beat the hell out of them and get to enjoy seeing our backups get extended minutes instead of worrying about “what if…”

Andrew VU ‘04: We’re so back, we’ve got scoliosis! We’re so back, Sir Mix-A-Lot got sprung! We’re so back that we’re… umm… TV’s Jim Backus?

This idea of purchasing another team seems interesting. It worked in bowling, so maybe feetball? If so… what college shall we pilfer next?

Did Lea just extend his contract?

Can we play the running QB game when the SEC teams show up? We’ve seen this before with other QBs and they did not last.

Any finally, can I put my pants back on yet or do I wait until we loose? [sic]

Tom Stephenson: First of all, the no pants rule is clearly posted on the AoG office door.

I think of the New Mexico State pilfering as a bridge to what Clark Lea really wants to do, which is build through developing high school recruits. Like I don’t get the sense that he’s completely given up on that, but he needed to keep his job to get to that, so pilfer New Mexico State it was.

I would certainly hope CSL learned her lesson from the Stackhouse debacle, but no, he’s got to at least make a bowl game to get another extension. 4-8 probably gets him another year, I guess, but not a contract extension.

TBD on whether we can play the running QB game in the SEC. We could do it with Mike Wright to some degree, but he was a hell of an athlete and also, he couldn’t beat anyone with his arm.

Cole Sullivan: What the hell are pants? Definitely keep them off.

I could see Lea doing it. Maybe not to this level every year, especially assuming we are keeping the coaching staff we brought over meaning there won’t be as many spots to fill. He wants to win his way, but he’s obviously not living on the alternate plane of existence known as “Dabo World” where it’s your way at all costs. Ultimately, I think he will do whatever is best to win even if he doesn’t love it and sometimes that will mean absorbing an entire football program the same way we absorbed Peabody College.

No, but he got a lot closer to it. I think he still has to get us at least one SEC win (assuming we go undefeated in the nonconference schedule).

Depends on the SEC team? Even with the sunshine pump open on full blast, best I can give you is “yeah maybe I dunno, maybe if we’re having a good day” for Bama. Kensucky on the other hand? Run that thang!!!

PatrickSawyer: It is funny to think about the NMSU plundering, but I doubt we see anything like that going forward. I do think the portal and NIL may be somewhere Lea stays active to plug holes going forward. We have 9 non-NMSU transfers on the offensive depth chart and 5 on defense.

Technically? No. He could still go 1-11 and get fired. I would say that winning all 3 of Alcorn State, Georgia State, and Ball State is now much more probable than losing any 1 of them though. It probably takes losing 2 of them to get him fired.

I will feel more comfortable asking this after getting to see Nate Johnson. He might be even more explosive than Pavia but also not as reliable with more risk of back-breaking turnovers.

NO PANTS ARE THE BEST PANTS! To Andrew’s point, I have quarantined the clothes I wore last Saturday to ensure I wear the exact same outfit down to underwear and socks every Saturday.

Andrew VU ‘04: You know the no-pants rule is always in effect around these parts. That goes double for superstition while a team is undefeated. In fact, if you’re not wearing exactly what you wore on Saturday every game day from here until whatever bowl is in Shreveport this year, you’re banned.

After Week 1 results, what is the most probable path to a bowl?

What teams do we beat?

What will describe the team’s success/failure.

They won when….

They lost when…

(rush yards/game, possessions/game, time of possession ±, QB pass rating, Turnover margin/difference, chunk plays, etc etc).

Do we finally beat SC?

Tom Stephenson: The most probable path to a bowl is winning the three remaining nonconference games, and then take your pick amongst Kentucky, Auburn, and South Carolina. I could be convinced they can beat Missourah, but other than that, I’m not holding out any hope for the remaining teams on the schedule (Alabama, Texas, LSU, Tennessee.)

As of right now, the biggest key to the team’s success, honestly, is just staying healthy. I’m not convinced this team has the depth at the offensive skill positions to weather any of the key players there getting hurt. We can make a bowl game with Diego Pavia. I do not think we can make a bowl game with Nate Johnson or Drew Dickey.

Cole Sullivan: So here’s the deal, we are beating 2) Alcorn State 3) Georgia State 4) Missouri 5) Kentucky 6) Ball State 7) Auburn 8) LSU. Set your parlay, bet the house, go on and take it to the bank. Success and failure will rest squarely on the shoulders of the receiving corps and the secondary. We win when Diego is making the passes necessary to keep pressure off him and when our secondary is able to stop big plays from happening. We lose when Diego takes a few too many hits or gets pressured too much, or when we get outran deep over and over again.

I think we are most assuredly cursed against the Game Penises and that there may not be a way to beat them ever again. The Commodores are more likely to go 11-1 and win it all with our only loss to Cackalacky along the way than we are to beat South Carolina ever again.

PatrickSawyer: The “obvious” path is beating Georgia State, Kentucky, Ball State, and South Carolina with a flukey win from Auburn (DAWN OF DIEGO!) or an imploding LSU. I also am not totally bought in on all this Missouri hype (ranked #9?!), so that may be an early steal to get the hype train in full effect.

The difference in wins and losses will be turnover margin and 3rd down percentage on both sides of the ball. The offense lacks explosiveness, so they have to sustain drives, which requires converting on 3rd down. The defense has to get off the field. The turnovers provide the best chance to create short fields. The offense has a lot of ball handling, as we saw with 3 or 4 times where the ball hit the ground on exchange issues between Pavia and other players. Killing drives that way will be a huge problem.

No. I simply cannot bring myself to say we beat SC, no matter how shitty they look or how good we look.

Andrew VU ‘04: I would say the most probable path is winning 5 more games. Not going to mess around with any APR bid nonsense (and not just because that’s Parlagi’s jerb). Here are the ones I think are most winnable (from most to least) w/r/t the remainder of our schedule: 1) Alcorn State, 2) @ Georgia State, 3) Ball State, 4) The South Cackalacky Game Penises (I know, I know!), 5) @ Auburn, 6) @ Kentucky, 7) @ LSU, 8) @ Missourah (spits), 9) The bUTtchuggers, 10) Alabama, and 11) The Tejas Long Fedoras.

Fuck… now I’m sad. Why did you make me sad?! I forgot how much harder our schedule is this year than normal. Well, win the 3 remaining OOC games, and two of the SEC games (and/or Big XII games), and you get 6. Even after beating Virginny Tech, this is not going to be easy.

How effective do you expect the move to the read option offense will be in the SEC?

Tom Stephenson: I mean, it’s probably going to be more successful than whatever the hell we were doing last season.

Cole Sullivan: Similar to above, against the big dogs (Bama, Texas) it probably doesn’t matter. Against the other teams? I feel like some of these coaches could get twisted on it and really mess up their gameplan. As long as we always do our best to execute our own plan well, there really ain’t nothing we can’t do.

PatrickSawyer: Auburn’s 2013 team that was 19 seconds from a national championship is the closest stylistic match I can think of in the SEC. That Auburn team was MUCH more talented than this Vanderbilt team, and Nick Marshall was Pavia but with elite speed and probably a stronger arm, too.

I will probably do a full breakdown of the offense as part of the open week after Missouri. It is technically a lot of triple option, but it is not the Navy/Georgia Tech old school triple option. There are a lot of plays where one of the options is a pass, which adds a wrinkle that is a necessary difference from the traditional triple option to survive the SEC.

Andrew VU ‘04: The offense has a chance to sneak up on people, old-style Georgia Tech style, as it will be tough to prepare for in one week’s time. More than the scheme, Diego “Psycho” Pavia is the real thing that will be tough to prepare for, as he’s basically the platonic ideal of Taysom Hill playing Doug Flutie backyard draw plays in the dirt ball. You can’t prepare for crazy, and every ounce of Pavia’s shoulder pads are pure Chip. He’s going to shock an SEC team or two this year. Maybe even a good one.

Which player or player group surprised y’all the most?

The receivers had pretty good hands which is nice for a group that has to reload

Tom Stephenson: I was pretty surprised that the defensive line played as well as it did. That’s been a sore spot since, like, Adam Butler was playing here.

Cole Sullivan: The o-line seemed to hold the Hokies back way better than I had expected, although they did seem to struggle a little more as the game went on. Watch this space.

PatrickSawyer: I will take the DL for positive surprise. I was negatively surprised to see the TEs only get targeted 3 times with all of them towards Stowers. Spence was supposedly a star of camp, and freshman TE Brycen Coleman was reportedly making highlight catches daily before his injury.

Saying “the receivers” might be too generous. It was mostly just Skinner on the “good hands” catches. He did have a bad drop though. Junior Sherrill’s 3 catches and Lois Fouonji’s single grab were fine but not plays that impressed me.

Andrew VU ‘04: At this point, Diego Pavia goes without saying, right? His name is Diego Pavia, You killed his father. Prepare to die.

That being said, the position group that surprised me the most was the offensive line. Sure, Pavia is a one-man band, but the big beefy boys looked big, beefy, and surprisingly agile. They gave Pavia a great pocket in the 1st half, opened running lanes, and… umm… snapped the ball without issue? The 2nd half saw Virginny Tech get pretty consistent pressure, so there is still room for improvement, but this gave me hope against the even bigger beefier boys of the SEC. The whole damned team (save Pavia) needs to work on conditioning and the scientists need to take a day off from building the Dansby Swanson clone-machine to solve this whole cramping thingy, but this o-line was a lot stronger than I expected.

What are the chances of Vandy actually being ranked at some point this season?

And if the answer is Zero, how about “also receiving votes”?

Tom Stephenson: I’m of the opinion that we need to start 4-0 — so, beat Alcorn State, Georgia State, and Missouri — to get ranked. Maybe we sneak in with a 3-0 start, but I don’t think the next two games will move the needle much.

If we don’t beat Missouri? Hmmm, maybe beating Kentucky and Ball State to get to 5-2 does it (I’m just assuming a loss to Alabama, because why wouldn’t I.) A lot then depends on how good Virginia Tech and Kentucky actually are, I guess.

It’s probably not happening after that. So I’d put the chances it happens at some point this season at like 15%? Not zero, but not great.

Cole Sullivan: I think we could end up ranked if we win the next two games. Basically, I am betting we win in convincing enough fashion that we don’t lose votes and enough teams right above us lose and their votes just fall to those hanging like bats off the bottom of the ranking that we just kinda float upwards. If we do win those two games and still aren’t ranked, our chances of being ranked this season are the exact same as whatever our chances of beating Missouri are. That simple. I think we either get the ranking there or not at all. Small chance we go 3-0 in the Auburn-South Carolina-LSU stretch of the schedule and end up ranked after that, but otherwise probably still not our year.

PatrickSawyer: I think Tom nailed this one. Maybe I’d go as high as 25% because I have less faith in Missouri than he does. I think some of y’all need to pump the brakes. The schedule is a nightmare. We may be “receiving votes,” but we got 8 total points while #25 Clemson has 134. Vanderbilt was 36th if you count down the teams receiving votes. Beating Alcorn State and Georgia State is not going to move the needle. Other teams will have more notable wins. We just got our best OOC win possible in Week 1.

Andrew VU ‘04: We’re already “receiving votes!” It’s 100% (with respect to the receiving votes part of the question)!

With one of his best wins in his career, did Clark Lea officially douse the hot seat? Personally I think so.

If he snags an SEC win, does that mean his seat is ice cold?

Tom Stephenson: I wouldn’t say he’s completely out of the woods. He still needs to take care of business in the three remaining nonconference games, and probably needs to be mostly competitive in the SEC.

A single SEC win means he’s 5-7, tops, in Year 4, with no bowl appearances, and that should not make any coach’s seat ice cold. Even at Vanderbilt. It doesn’t get him fired but he goes into next season definitely needing to make a bowl.

Cole Sullivan: Yes, but what is doused can be relit. I am betting the administration is drunk on the Kool-Aid of the Leanaissance right now and will do anything in its power to avoid firing him. HOWEVER, if we finish below 4-8, then I think the heat is on again.

PatrickSawyer: He poured a big bucket on the seat for now. As I said above, he probably has to lose 2 of the other OOC games left to get fired. Maybe if the Dores get completely obliterated by SEC competition and only win 2 more OOC games then the seat is hot again. I would like to say that gets him fired, but I doubt it.

Yes. Clark could probably go 5-7 for the next 3 seasons and be safe.

Andrew VU ‘04: Yeah, he dumped a bucket of Shine-O-Ball-O on that raging seat fire. I think he has to get 2 SEC wins and a bowl bid for a lifetime contract, but even one likely gets him a moderate extension. Even though this is mostly Fuck, Jerry, Kill & Co’s doing. That and Mr. Moneybags.

Any ideas what the strategy was for the last 1:00 of regulation play?

Tom Stephenson: The strategy, such as it was, was to set up a redshirt freshman for a long field goal but also to make sure Virginia Tech would not get the ball back. And, to be clear, if Taylor makes the field goal, nobody questions the strategy. And Taylor had clearly shown the ability to make that kick.

I’d say my only beef with the strategy is that they didn’t try all that hard to get closer and make it something like a 40-yarder, though I also get that they really didn’t want to risk a turnover there and really wanted to make sure the clock hit zero on the field goal attempt, make or miss.

Cole Sullivan: Yeah man I think they played a little too conservative I guess? I actually am all for it. I expected Lea to do some weird boneheaded aggressive things I didn’t like, and instead the gameplan was much more reasonable. Some risk-taking but nothing extreme given what we are working with this year. I didn’t love it, but I feel like there’s some past version of Lea that overly aggressively pursue the touchdown there instead of the kick for no reason other than “Because I Said So!”. Still frustrated in the moment though. Can’t believe we didn’t center the kicker but whatever man. We still won.

PatrickSawyer: It was absolutely designed to make the kick the final play. I did not hate it, but I wish they went a little faster. VT only had 2 timeouts. I think the risk-reward of trying to get inside of 40 was worth it. Brock Taylor does have a massive leg and had looked smooth so far. Granted, he had missed a 53-yard FG that did not count due to a delay of game penalty. He made the re-take after VT’s penalty on the ensuing punt. The 43-yard attempt he eventually faced was well within his range, and he had looked smooth all game.

Still, I will take a 35 yard over a 43 yarder any time. Granted, with the game tied, I did not hate it. I would have been furious if the Dores were trailing and needed the kick to win.

Andrew VU ‘04: This one’s easy. The strategy was to piss me off. It was wildly successful.

The secondary was the worst group last year, quick reactions to their performance opening up this season?

Also, did you catch that the field goal was our longest in 11 seasons? That was neat.

&

Our run defense was particularly good against VT. The DLine actually looked like it was upper half SEC against the veteran Hokie offense. Despite the positive improvement on defense, the secondary looks like it may not have improved at all. How bad is our secondary and can we overcome this glaring weakness to have a shot at an SEC win or two?

Tom Stephenson: (looks up who our kicker was 11 seasons ago)

SPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAR

I didn’t think our secondary played that badly with the exception of whatever the hell that busted coverage was that led to the long touchdown. Which, fine. Last season they would have given up at least three plays like that. The D-line looked good.

Cole Sullivan: Most of my “viewing” experience prior to my friend finally abandoning all hope on Clemson and changing the channel was the radio broadcast. From what I did see, we still got outrun a little in the second half. We were there enough that it ended up working out, but I still think there’s more to be done at this position.

PatrickSawyer: There were basically 2 busts. One was the fake screen touchdown to tie the game where the CB got overeager to blow up the screen and left his responsibilty who jogged in for a TD. The other was the screen to Tuten for a TD. Other than that, it was mostly clean. Some other minor things to clean up, too, but those were the major busts for a secondary that was horrible a year ago.

Andrew VU ‘04: I thought our secondary looked pretty damned good before all the Man-strual cramps kicked in. They need to work on conditioning, and that Random Fontanelle guy can never miss a snap again (as we have no discernible depth), but I saw some potential. Of course, everyone looked great in the 1st half.

What are some good activities for when it’s early September and you aren’t pissed off?

Tom Stephenson: This nice round of something resembling fall weather should give you the opportunity to go outside and touch grass.

Cole Sullivan: I heard there’s a football game this Saturday!

PatrickSawyer: I would just enjoy life until Alabama (and maybe Missouri) bring us crashing back to reality.

Andrew VU ‘04: *Asks 2011 through 2013 me.* Publishing papers on Postmodernist Satire and drinking heavily. Ah, who am I kidding, even 2011-2013 me was spending most of the fall wondering when The Diamond Dores would finally win that first Natty as we were the best team to never win one at that point. Vanderbilt Football had to die so Dansby could be the Mansby, apparently.

I started reading the practice reports from another web site. It didn’t sound so great to be honest; in fact pretty bad. Any yet we looked like a competent football team, especially in the first half. How can a team go from fumbling and bumbling in practice a few weeks ago to what we saw today? Or are we using disinformation tactics?

Tom Stephenson: I don’t know that you can truly run the Diego Pavia offense in practice, because it relies a ton on Pavia’s sheer willingness to get himself killed. And obviously, you’re not going to do that in practice. Because our coaches are not idiots.

But also, possibly, Chris Lee is Pravda and intentionally publishing disinformation from the coaching staff and athletic department. Given everything I know about Chris, though, this seems highly unlikely.

Cole Sullivan: Practice report schmractice report. I only sorta buy that stuff because ultimately you don’t know what you’ve got until it’s cooked up a mighty fine turkey for an early September dinner.

PatrickSawyer: Spring and Fall Camp reports are impossible. Either the offense is great because the defense sucks, or the defense is dominant because the offense is useless. Both seem to have improved about equally, so it would be hard to convey that in practice reports without giving too much away. We know they were told to keep reports from being TOO descriptive as part of the agreement to leave so much of practice open to the media.

And, yeah, an offense like this requires the QB to be hit to be effective. You don’t do that in practice. A lot of Pavia’s plays get whistled down 4 or 5 yards shorter than their result in the actual game.

Andrew VU ‘04: Well, Merrick Garland is investigating a coordinated attempt by Russia to influence American elections right now. Have to assume they’re going for all poll-related things. Quit sabotaging our Top 25 shot, Putin!

Closed? Is this the fastest a mail bag has ever closed?

Considering the refs were 100% against us, and that offense had a huge drop, defense had two terrible gaffes(missed screen pickup and then blown coverage on an exotic blitz), and we gagged a FG at the end, how the hell did we win?

i’m so excited i don’t know what do with my hands right now.

Tom Stephenson: We won because Pinman smiled down on us. Hail Pinman.

Cole Sullivan: Everyone secretly got tattoos of the old logo on their butts where Mean Coach Lea won’t ever be able to find them.

PatrickSawyer: I am not touching any of this. Least of all the hands question. This is, ostensibly, a family friendly website.

Andrew VU ‘04: I reopened it to tell you to stop doing what you’re doing with your hands. Stop it right now, mister!