UNC basketball’s March mindset, NCAA Tournament chances entering final week of regular season

Posted by author March 1, 2025 Basketball

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CHAPEL HILL — It’s March, which means time is running out for UNC basketball to boost its chances of making the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

The Tar Heels are playing their best basketball as winners of five straight for the first time this season, but a 92-73 win against Miami on Saturday won’t be enough to get UNC (19-11, 12-6 ACC) into the March Madness field.

Following its win against the last-place Hurricanes (6-23, 2-16), UNC plays at Virginia Tech (12-16, 7-10) on Tuesday (7 p.m., ESPNU) before closing the regular season with a Q1 opportunity against No. 2 Duke (25-3, 16-1) on March 8 in Chapel Hill.

The Tar Heels likely need to win both games and a couple at the ACC Tournament in Charlotte to feel good about their odds of making March Madness.

“We want to take advantage of every opportunity, because we’re never going to get these opportunities back,” said UNC’s Ven-Allen Lubin, who matched his season-best effort with 19 points against Miami.

“. … Really trying to set ourselves up for the next month and just see what’s out there for us.”

As of Saturday evening, the Tar Heels are included in 13 of 106 bracket projections on Bracket Matrix. UNC has a 1-10 record in Quadrant 1 games entering the final week of the regular season. Since the NCAA started using the NET rankings in the 2018-19 season, Drake (2021) is the only team to secure an at-large bid into March Madness with one Q1 victory.

Of the 20 squads to compete in the First Four, which features the lowest-seeded teams to earn an at-large bid, six of them had two Q1 victories, including Virginia last season and Notre Dame in 2022. The other 13 teams had at least three Q1 victories.

“It’s March, so we want to play well in March. I think that’s when big-time players come up in the clutch,” said UNC fifth-year guard RJ Davis, who had 13 points and four assists against the Hurricanes.

“I know a lot of people never really get to experience March Madness. I think a lot of us came here to have that feeling, have that experience. It’s different. I’m super excited. It’s March 1, so we’re a couple weeks from the ACC Tournament. It’s here.”

What Hubert Davis said about UNC basketball entering March, final week of regular season

UNC coach Hubert Davis isn’t focused on the calendar or the stakes. His priority is on the Hokies and continuing to put his players in position to play their best.

“I can understand that question, and the guys can tell you this: It’s March for me in October. I don’t differentiate between March 1 and Nov. 4,” Davis said when asked about things ratcheting up in March.

“I don’t care if it’s a shootaround, a pick-up game, playing knockout or playing in the Final Four. I think you need to bring that edge all the time. I think it helps with this group because I don’t have to differentiate. I don’t have to say, ‘Guys, it’s March.’”

But the fourth-year head coach does “feel good” about how the Tar Heels are playing entering the final week of the regular season.

“The thing that I feel best about is this team staying connected and staying together. There have been bumps in the road,” Davis said.

“I always tell ‘em that when bumps come, the only thing you have control over is how you react and how you respond, so that’s what I’m proud of. I’m proud of how they have responded, how they have stayed connected, how they have grown as a team and as a group and how they have stayed the course when it’s hard to do that at times.”

That’ll have to continue for UNC to have a chance to hear its name called on Selection Sunday.

Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding those teams? Send them to rbaxley@fayobserver.com.