UNC basketball vs Wake Forest: Score prediction, scouting report for ACC rivalry

Posted by Admin January 20, 2025 Basketball

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UNC basketball hasn’t won at Wake Forest in five years.

The Tar Heels (12-7, 5-2 ACC), who play the Demon Deacons (14-4, 6-1) in Winston-Salem on Tuesday (9 p.m., ESPN), haven’t won as an unranked team at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum in 14 years.

In a Tobacco Road Rivalry that started in 1911, UNC has won 70.5% of its games against Wake Forest, but the Deacs have won three straight home games against the Heels by an average margin of 15.3 points.

UNC’s four-game winning streak was snapped in a gut-wrenching loss to Stanford at the Smith Center and Wake Forest is looking to push its winning streak to six games. The Deacs are off to a 6-1 start in ACC play for the first time since Tim Duncan’s senior year in the 1996-97 season.

Here are some other things to know and a score prediction for the Tar Heels latest trip to Wake Forest.

UNC guard RJ Davis, Wake Forest guard Hunter Sallis in spotlight as leading scorers

It’s all about the guards Tuesday night at the Joel. UNC’s RJ Davis, the reigning ACC Player of the Year, dropped 36 points against Wake Forest last season at the Smith Center and Wake Forest’s Hunter Sallis is arguably playing better than any guard in the ACC as the league’s second-leading scorer (19.5 points per game).

Davis hasn’t fared as well this season, averaging 17.3 points on 38.1% shooting, but he’s averaged 22 points in five games against Wake Forest. With seven straight games of 20 or more points, Sallis is in the best scoring stretch of his career. Wake’s veteran has averaged 24.5 points on 58.8% shooting.

Ian Jackson, Tre’Von Spillers have been key to recent success of Tar Heels, Demon Deacons

UNC freshman guard Ian Jackson has scored 20 or more points in six of the last eight games, but he’s coming off his first single-digit performance since mid-December. In UNC’s loss to Stanford, Jackson had six points on 1 of 8 shooting. If the Tar Heels are going to leave Winston-Salem with a win, Jackson will need more opportunities than he had against the Cardinal. The Tar Heels are 7-2 this season when Jackson attempts 10 or more shots and 4-5 when he doesn’t reach that number. UNC has to keep finding ways to get the ball to the Bronx native.

Looking at Wake Forest, App State transfer Tre’Von Spillers has played a key role in helping the Deacs string together wins to start 2025. The 6-foot-7 forward has reached double figures in four of the last five games, including a pair of double-double performances. Given UNC’s inconsistency in the frontcourt, Spillers could be in line for a big night.

Defense is better for UNC and Wake Forest, but which team will defend without fouling?

Wake Forest has been consistently good at defending this season and UNC has improved its defense since the shift to ACC play. The team that does a better job of defending without fouling will likely be the one that wins this week in Winston-Salem. In Wake Forest’s last three wins against the Tar Heels at the Joel, the Deacs averaged 32 free throws and attempted 31 more free throws combined across those three games.

UNC is averaging 22.8 free throw attempts per game this season, which is 45th nationally, compared to Wake Forest’s 18.8 attempts (207th). But the Tar Heels are having a harder time of defending without fouling, sitting at 268th with seven disqualifications and an average of 18 fouls per game. Wake is 133rd, with one disqualification and an average of 16.4 fouls.

UNC vs Wake Forest score prediction

Wake Forest 76, UNC 70: The Demon Deacons have dominated the Tar Heels at the Joel in recent years, but they’ve never won four in a row against UNC at the Joel. With a 9-0 record at home this season, including victories in its last three ACC home games by an average of 16 points, Hunter Sallis and the Deacs will get it done this week.

Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding those teams? Send them to rbaxley@fayobserver.com.