UNC basketball vs Florida: Score prediction, scouting report for Jumpman Invitational

Posted by Admin December 16, 2024 Basketball

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It’s a big week for UNC basketball.

The Tar Heels (6-4, 1-0 ACC) have a pair of opportunities to improve their 2025 NCAA Tournament résumé, starting with No. 9 Florida (10-0) on Tuesday (7 p.m., ESPN) in the Jumpman Invitational at Spectrum Center in Charlotte.

The Gators have won their 10 games by an average margin of 21 points, with their closest game being a 13-point victory against rival Florida State. The Tar Heels are 4-2 in the all-time series against Florida, but the teams have split the last four meetings. UNC earned an 11-point win vs. the Gators in 2015 at the Battle 4 Atlantis.

The Tar Heels have won 86.1% of their games in Charlotte, with a 168-27 record in the Queen City, including an 18-2 record at Spectrum Center.

UNC is looking for its first nonconference win against a top-10 team since beating No. 7 Oklahoma last season at the Jumpman Invitational. Overall, the Heels are 2-6 in the regular season against top-10 nonconference opponents under fourth-year coach Hubert Davis.

Here are some other things to know and a score prediction for UNC vs. Florida.

UNC basketball’s RJ Davis, Seth Trimble vs Florida basketball’s Walter Clayton, Alijah Martin

It’s all about the guards in this matchup. Few guards have been better than Florida senior Walter Clayton Jr., who is averaging 19.1 points and 3.6 assists per game. Clayton has knocked down five 3-pointers in three straight games, joining Anthony Roberson (2005) as the only Florida players to accomplish that feat. Florida Atlantic transfer Alijah Martin is averaging 15.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 2.0 steals per game in his first season with the Gators.

Florida’s potent guard duo will have to contend with UNC fifth-year guard RJ Davis, who is averaging 17.6 points per game. Davis continues to struggle with his 3-point shooting, making just 25% of his outside shots, but he averaged 21.6 points on 52% shooting from beyond the arc in three games at Spectrum Center last season. Seth Trimble has been UNC’s most consistent two-way player through 10 games, averaging 15.4 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game.

Ven-Allen Lubin production in UNC post, history vs Florida

Vanderbilt transfer Ven-Allen Lubin has been in the Tar Heels’ starting lineup for the last two games, averaging 7.5 points and 6.5 rebounds per game in 18 minutes. UNC’s guards were intent on creating more post touches for their bigs against La Salle. Lubin was the primary beneficiary, finishing with 10 points. During his time with the Commodores, Lubin averaged 20 points and 9 rebounds in two games vs. Florida.

Cade Tyson shooting, Alex Condon rebounding

Florida is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. The Gators are sixth nationally in rebounds per game (43), 11th in rebound margin (plus-10) and 10th in offensive rebounding percentage (40.2%). Alex Condon, Florida’s 6-foot-11 center, averages 7.1 rebounds per game to lead that effort as an X-factor against UNC, which is 64th in rebounds per game (39.5) and 167th in rebound margin (plus-2).

UNC’s X-factor could be Cade Tyson, who scored a season-high 23 points, including five 3s, vs. La Salle. Tyson hasn’t been able to provide a boost off the bench against high-major opponents, with zero points and an average of 3.4 minutes in those five games.

UNC vs Florida score prediction

Florida 81, UNC 80: More times than not, the Tar Heels play well in Charlotte. But this UNC squad still has some things to figure out, and the Gators look like a team that has figured things out.

Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding those teams? Send them to rbaxley@fayobserver.com.