UNC basketball ACC Tournament seeding scenarios, March Madness bracketology ahead of Duke

Posted by author March 7, 2025 Basketball

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The biggest weekend of UNC basketball’s season is here.

The Tar Heels (20-11, 13-6 ACC) have a golden opportunity against No. 2 Duke (27-3, 18-1) on Saturday (6:30 p.m., ESPN) at the Smith Center.

UNC is playing for a double bye in the ACC Tournament and the chance to improve its odds of making the NCAA Tournament with an at-large bid. If the Selection Show was Friday, the Tar Heels wouldn’t be included in the March Madness bracket.

Here’s a breakdown of where the Tar Heels are ahead of their game against the Blue Devils and what’s at stake on Saturday.

UNC basketball ACC Tournament seeding scenarios

If the Tar Heels beat Duke, they would secure a double bye into Thursday’s quarterfinal round at the Spectrum Center. In that scenario, UNC would be the No. 4 seed in the 2:30 game on Thursday in Charlotte. If the Tar Heels lose to the Blue Devils, they could still be the No. 4 seed if SMU loses at Florida State and Wake Forest loses at home against Georgia Tech.

A UNC loss, SMU loss and Wake Forest win would create a three-way tie for fourth place. In that case, the Heels would be the No. 5 seed because of their loss to the Demon Deacons and their win against the Mustangs. UNC could also be the No. 5 seed with a loss if SMU wins and Wake Forest loses. The No. 5 seed plays at 2:30 p.m. Wednesday.

If SMU and Wake Forest win, along with a UNC loss, the Heels would be the No. 6 seed. That would put UNC in the 9:30 p.m. game on Wednesday at the bottom half of the bracket, setting up a potential quarterfinal matchup with Clemson or Louisville on Thursday.

UNC basketball NCAA Tournament projections

ESPN: Joe Lunardi has the Tar Heels among the first four teams out of the NCAA Tournament, as of Friday morning.

CBS Sports: Jerry Palm has UNC in the “on the bubble section,” meaning the Tar Heels aren’t in his bracket.

USA TODAY: Like Lunardi, USA TODAY has UNC among the first four teams out.

On3: This is among the only sites with the Tar Heels in the field. On3 has UNC among the teams with the last four byes in the NCAA Tournament as a No. 11 seed in the Midwest. In that projection, UNC is projected to play No. 6 Gonzaga in Milwaukee.

Bracket Matrix: The Tar Heels are included in 20 of 92 bracket projections on Bracket Matrix. UNC is among the “other at-larges” competing for a March Madness bid.

UNC basketball NCAA Tournament résumé

The Tar Heels are No. 38 in the NET rankings and No. 37 KenPom ahead of their game against Duke. UNC is 44th in wins above the bubble, which takes into account a team’s extra wins beyond what a typical bubble team would have against its schedule.

The Heels are 1-10 in Quad 1 games, with their lone win against an NCAA Tournament team coming against UCLA in New York City. UNC has a 19-1 record against Q2-Q4 opponents, but the overall weakness of the ACC has limited the Heels’ opportunities in league play.

The average NET rankings of UNC’s 11 losses is 27th in the nation, something that could help the Heels if they can string together some wins in Charlotte. Still, UNC likely needs to beat Duke in a golden Q1 opportunity and make a run in the ACC Tournament to secure an at-large bid.

Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding those teams? Send them to rbaxley@fayobserver.com.