The UFC is back!

2025 is here and for the first time this year, so is the UFC, when the world’s leading MMA promotion holds UFC Vegas 101 this Saturday. Headlined by a strawweight rematch between Amanda Ribas and Mackenzie Dern, this weekend’s UFC card isn’t the greatest, but it’s the first one in nearly a month, and there are some good bets to be made, so let’s have some fun!

All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Single Plays

Mackenzie Dern (+154)

Yes, Ribas won their first fights with relative ease, and Dern has not exactly been on a killer run of late, but I just can’t quit her.

Dern is a deeply flawed fighter, but she has a superpower, which is exceedingly rare in the strawweight division. If you end up on the floor with Dern, it’s mortal peril, and while she’s not a great wrestler, she does seem to find ways to get things to the mat. The issue for Dern has always been her willingness to cause damage when she does get to the floor and her inability to wrestle effectively. She’s getting better about the former and in this fight, I believe she’ll be a little improved about the latter.

Dern made the case that their first fight was so one-sided, because she was coming back from having a child and wasn’t really in the best place for the fight, and I’ll take the BJJ world champion at her word. This time around things should be more competitive so give me the underdog.

Chris Curtis (+210)

Curtis faces Roman Kopylov in a main card middleweight bout on Saturday, and he’s being decently undervalued.

Kopylov is a good fighter, but he’s far from a world-beater and his current run of form comes largely against middling or limited opposition. Meanwhile, Curtis is battle-tested against some of the best fighters in the middleweight division, and though he hasn’t won them all, he always gives a good accounting of himself. Many people even believe he should have gotten the decision over Brendan Allen in their rematch last April, and had he, this line might be different. Curtis can defend takedowns and use his savvy and craft on the feet to outpoint Kopylov over three rounds.

Nicolle Caliari (+225)

A pair of Contender Series signees meet up when Caliari faces Ernesta Kareckaite in a preliminary women’s flyweight bout. And I’m going to give this the kiss of death when I say this but I can’t help it: I don’t know what Vegas is seeing here.

Kareckaite was not a particularly impressive prospect on her season of Contender Series, winning a split decision over Carli Judice, and then she lost her debut to Dione Barbosa. In contrast, Caliari also hails from a kickboxing/karate background but has shown some ability as a wrestler and grappler and much more physicality. Sure, Kareckaite has a big size advantage, but she has not shown the skills to be this big of a favorite so take a value bet on Caliari.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Parlay

A new year usually coincides with a whole new crop of Contender Series prospects really getting into the thick of things inside the UFC, and that holds true this weekend as well. Five fighters competing this weekend came from the most recent season of Contender Series and while I expect all five to win, there are two I like more than the rest.

Austin Bashi (-290)

Bashi was one of my favorite prospects on Season 8 of Contender Series. He’s 23 years old, a great athlete, and an accomplished grappler, who is also willing to scrap on the feet. I likened his game to Henry Cejudo or Aaron Pico, to give you some idea of his talent. Bashi gets a tough debut fight in Christian Rodriguez, but he’s far more talented and I believe he gets the win.

Jacobe Smith (-520)

Smith is a three-time All-American wrestler and a great athlete who is still a bit raw in terms of MMA. That being said, he has the natural tools and he’s shown some creativity in his game already. Preston Parsons is a serviceable fighter but the worse wrestler and not the same level of athlete as Smith, so I like him to win.

Overall, my favorite prospects from Contender Series are 19-2 in the UFC (and one of those was a robbery), so I’m riding the hot hand for this parlay.

Parlay these two bets together for -166 odds.

Wrap Up

Alright, y’all, it’s the first week back in the swing of things so let’s have some fun. Calendar resets and hopefully this year we’ll do better than last year.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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