Whatever you want to call it (UFC 306, Riyadh Season Noche UFC, the rest), a big UFC pay-per-view goes down this Saturday night from Las Vegas’s famous Sphere. We’ve got two title fights on the top of the card, both with very tight odds. Here are your UFC 306 predictions and best bets.

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UFC 306 Predictions & Best Bets

Sean O’Malley (-127) vs Merab Dvalishvili

For the second week in a row, a ‘Sean’ headlines a UFC event, in this case Sean O’Malley, the UFC’s Bantamweight Champion. And, just like last week when I rode with Sean Brady, I’m backing this week’s Sean as well.

This title fight is a classic ‘striker vs grappler’ battle, and I normally side with the striker. That would be O’Malley, who hits really damn hard, is huge for 135 pounds (he’s five inches taller and has four inches of reach on Dvalishvili), and is a solid grappler. While Dvalishvili is not your everyday grappler, with his relentless pace, he is also a guy who gets hit hard in fights. That won’t go well when it’s the champ doing the hitting.

Alexa Grasso (-135) vs Valentina Shevchenko

The co-main event doesn’t involve a ‘Sean’, but it is also for UFC gold. This is Round 3 of Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko battling for the UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship, with Grasso winning the first meeting and the second going to a draw.

I think the champ, Grasso, retains here, as she continues to improve with each fight while former champ Shevchenko is clearly on the downside of her career. The fact that Shevchenko is still complaining that she should have been given the decision in their last fight also isn’t a good sign that her head is in the right place heading into this fight.

Diego Lopes (-185) vs Brian Ortega

No title on the line, no Seans in site, but still a damn good fight is third from the top. Diego Lopes and Brian Ortega were hours away from fighting at UFC 303 in June before Ortega fell ill and pulled out of the fight. I picked Lopes to win that fight, and that hasn’t changed.

Lopes should be the much better and more dangerous striker in this battle, and he’s also a dangerous grappler, although not on Ortega’s elite level. I think he’s too good – and lethal – everywhere in the cage for Ortega to handle.

Ronaldo Rodriguez (-137) vs Ode’ Osbourne

This is a very chalky card for me, but at least we’re getting some solid numbers on some favorites. One of those would be Ronaldo Rodriguez, who is opening the main card in a flyweight fight against Ode’ Osbourne.

The bloom is off the rose with Osbourne, as he’s dropped two straight fights and three of his last four. Rodriguez is seven years his junior and will be able to outstrike as well as outgrapple the veteran.

Norma Dumont (-110) vs Irene Aldana

My lone dog on the card, Norma Dumont, has now been bet into favorite territory in her women’s bantamweight bout against Irene Aldana. I told you this was a chalky card.

Dumont is a strong grappler, which I expect her to utilize against Aldana. But she’s also improving as a striker and gets hit way less than Aldana, who tends to get outstruck in fights.

If you’d like even more UFC 306  picks, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping five episodes a week to make you the smartest guy at the bar.