UCF basketball welcomes No. 7 Kansas for Big 12 home opener: Scouting report, predictions

Posted by Admin January 4, 2025 Basketball

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ORLANDO — Last year’s Big 12 home opener turned out to be one of UCF’s signature men’s basketball moments in school history.

The Knights — picked to finish last in their debut league campaign — instead stunned then-No. 3 Kansas 65-60, with a sellout crowd of 9,469 fans storming the court at Addition Financial Arena. UCF dug out of a 16-point, first-half hole and forced 18 turnovers against the heavily favored Jayhawks, one of the sport’s traditional powerhouses.

Nearly one year to the day, UCF (10-2, 1-0) will try to recapture that magic at 4 p.m. Sunday afternoon as Kansas comes back to town. The Jayhawks are ranked No. 7 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, though they are fresh off an upset loss at home against West Virginia.

Meanwhile, the Knights opened their 20-game conference slate with an impressive 87-83 road victory over Texas Tech on New Year’s Eve. Keyshawn Hall tied Darius Johnson for the team lead with 17 points, hitting all seven of his first-half field goal attempts, as UCF won its sixth straight game.

UCF will not sneak up on Kansas this time around, and the Jayhawks will be eager to rebound after falling behind by as many as 18 points. But can the Knights do it again, and perhaps crack the top 25 on their own?

Here’s a breakdown of Sunday’s matchup, with predictions from The News-Journal’s duo of Chris Boyle and Chris Vinel.

UCF basketball injury report for Kansas game

It’s taken the better part of two months, but the Knights are finally at full strength.

JJ Taylor returned from illness and played just over four minutes against Texas Tech, giving UCF coach Johnny Dawkins his full 10-man rotation for the first time all year. Jaylin Sellers (back) and Mikey Williams (ankle) returned in time for the non-conference finale against Jacksonville.

Sellers, who paced the Knights with 18 points in last year’s home meeting with Kansas, logged nearly 14 minutes off the bench against Texas Tech. He had seven points, one rebound and one assist.

Scouting the Kansas Jayhawks

Under longtime head coach Bill Self, the Jayhawks have a record of 124-21 when coming off a loss. Self, who passed legendary Phog Allen for the school’s all-time wins record on Nov. 12, needs three more to eclipse 600 in charge at Kansas.

“I’m not saying I’m happy they lost, but I’m happy they’re coming in with some fire under their butts, ready to play,” Hall said. “Because we are, too. We’ve got something to prove. They’re looked at as a top-seven, top-10 team in the country. We want to be there.”

Kansas moves the ball as well as any team in the land, ranking 18th nationally in assists per game (18.1) and 11th in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.76). Graduate guard Dajuan Harris Jr. leads the team with 5.8 assists per game, and he became the 22nd player in Jayhawks history to reach the 1,000-point mark.

Preseason All-American center Hunter Dickinson leads the Big 12 in double-doubles, averaging 15.1 points and 10.4 rebounds while shooting 53.6% from the floor. Zeke Mayo, a coveted transfer portal addition from South Dakota State, has chipped in 14.7 points per game with a 37.3% shooting clip from 3-point range.

“Hunter’s a terrific player. I’ve watched him play ever since high school,” Dawkins said. “His numbers are remarkable if you look at what he’s done over his college career. It’s those type of players that you have to contain them. It’s hard to stop a player like that.”

True freshman Flory Bidunga, a top-20 consensus prospect in the 2024 recruiting class, played a big role in cutting into West Virginia’s 18-point lead Tuesday with eight points and 11 rebounds in 17 minutes.

Keys to the game for UCF

UCF will have to match Kansas’ physicality in the paint and get Dickinson to defend away from the basket. West Virginia targeted the 7-foot-2 big man in its pick-and-roll game, shooting 15 of 32 from the field.

Knights freshman center Moustapha Thiam has demonstrated a willingness to shoot the 3-ball and touch in the mid-range game. That could free up space in the lane for Hall and others to attack the rim.

UCF has shown it can contend with just about anyone when shots are falling from long range. The Knights made 10 3-pointers at Texas Tech and are 4-0 this season when sinking at least 40% of their attempts from beyond the arc.

In its last two games, UCF has catapulted more than 100 spots up the Division I leaderboard in 3-point shooting percentage — up to 35% on the year from 32.5% ahead of its last non-conference contest.

Kansas-UCF score predictions

Boyle — Kansas 80, UCF 70: Lightning rarely strikes twice, and Self will surely have Kansas ready for the task. UCF has scored four home wins against ranked opponents the last two seasons, including its opener against Texas A&M back in November. Orlando is quickly becoming an increasingly difficult trip for visitors, but the Jayhawks find a way to respond in their first bout of 2025.

Vinel — Kansas 73, UCF 66: The last time Kansas started 0-2 in league play was 1990-91. That’s a decade before the oldest players on the Knights’ roster were born. It’s even before one of these two sportswriters existed. (Won’t say which one.) One key matchup to watch: Dickinson vs. Thiam. Two seven-footers. One of them 24 years old and considered among the top players in the country. The other a rising star of a true freshman ranked second in the conference in blocks.

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