By now we all know the drill on Turfway Park. You’ll see competitive fields and big payouts.

The Northern Kentucky track opens its 2024-25 season Wednesday with a pre-scratch average field size of 13 entries across nine races. After handicapping the opening-night nonet, I have every reason to think the big balloons will continue. The chart below is for the first four weeks of the 2023-24 meet.

I zeroed in on race 3 not because it is the most interesting race, though it is interesting, of course. But I have a more practical reason. It is one of only two races without any also-eligible horses, and in many of the other races with AEs, those AEs are definitely contenders.

This is a $5,000 starter allowance race for older fillies and mares going six furlongs on the synthetic Tapeta surface. $5,000 is the bottom level, though the starter condition gives this class a boost over actual claiming races.

I’m most interested in the class of this race, which is Anaita, who returns to Turfway after sprinting on turf in the mid-Atlantic this summer. She is 2-for-5 in Florence, Ky., with a second and a third and will have plenty of pace to chase with her regular rider Wesley Ho coming in for this mount only.

Protomagic started her 5-year-old season with three consecutive wins at Turfway but tailed off when having to face better and do so on dirt. She is 5-for-13 at Turfway and merits respect returning to the scene of 62.5% of her wins and the lowest class, but I think bettors will see that and overbet the Juan Cano trainee.

Beach Kitten is another dropping in class while returning to synthetic. I’m a little nervous about her running style from the outside having to chase. But if she drifts in price she at least has numbers and back class that fits with these.

The board will be essential here. In handicapping the handicappers, I think they’ll make Protomagic the favorite, which makes Anaita the choice for me. Horse Racing Nation‘s projected odds line also has Beach Kitten taking some action, which would make her less interesting to me.