Tuley’s Takes: NFL Week 12 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

We’re more than happy to put NFL Week 11 behind us in the Tuley’s Takes home office. On to NFL Week 12!

I went a woeful 1-5 against the spread here as favorites went 10-4 straight up and 9-5 ATS (with the Bears +6 being the only underdogs to cover in a loss in their 20-16 loss vs the Packers, but sadly we didn’t land on them either). Instead we lost on the Commanders +3.5 at the Eagles on Thursday Night Football, Patriots +5 vs. the Rams, Raiders +7.5 at the Dolphins, Jaguars +14 at the Lions and Chiefs +2.5 at the Bills with the lone win coming on the Colts +3.5 in their 28-27 upset at the Jets.

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That dropped our overall record here to 33-30 ATS (52.4%) on the season, which is break-even vs. the vig when laying the standard -110.

We also had a rare losing week with our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” as our recommended plays split 3-3 and that doesn’t cut it with 2-team, 6-point teasers. The silver lining is that at least we finished the weekend on a winning note with the Bengals +7.5 on Sunday Night Football in their 34-27 loss at the Chargers and Texans -1.5 on Monday Night Football in their 34-10 rout at the Cowboys.

But enough looking back (except to learn from our mistakes). Let’s get to our takes for NFL Week 12. For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes columns, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also give the aforementioned “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” of 2-team, 6-point teasers and my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

When this Thursday nighter was scheduled, everyone probably thought it was between AFC North rivals trying to keep up with the Ravens and Bengals in the playoff chase. Instead, the Steelers (a surprising 8-2) have a 1.5-game lead over the Ravens after beating them 18-16 Sunday as 3-point home underdogs, while the Browns (2-8) are in the cellar after getting run over 35-14 by the Saints. But this is still the NFL (aka “No Form League”), and parity still exists. Teams still step up and compete when least expected. And remember that these same Browns shocked the Ravens 29-24 just four weeks ago. As strange as it may sound, I would pass on the Browns as divisional home dawgs if Justin Fields was quarterbacking the Steelers because of how they had no answer vs. the Saints’ Taysom Hill, but with Russell Wilson mostly staying in the pocket, I believe it gives the Cleveland defense a better chance to keep this close and getting more than a field goal has me biting on this ugly dog. 

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Browns +3.5 (pool play: Browns 60/40 in my rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Steelers 60/40 in SU pools).

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Well, I obviously failed miserably in fading the Lions with the Jaguars +14 as it wasn’t even close, and the Lions coasted to a 52-6 blowout. But the Colts were my lone winner in Week 11, and I watched nearly their whole game and while Anthony Richardson still doesn’t have me looking for me to invest in his rookie cards, I saw enough to back them again here as home underdogs or more than a touchdown (another subset that usually performs better though it seems all those have been flipped on their proverbial head this season). Still, I’ll take the points and hope I’m not underestimating this Lions (9-1) team again as they’re 8-2 ATS overall and 7-2 ATS as favorites.

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Colts +7.5 (pool play: Colts 60/40 in ATS contests, but Lions still 70/30 in SU pools).

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Longtime Tuley’s Takes readers could probably write this paragraph for me. My “dog or pass” disciples already know I’m more than happy to fade the Chiefs as they tend to let teams stick around, and even though Patrick Mahomes and Co. usually pulled out the “W,” it’s tougher for them to also cover in those games. I also love me some double-digit home underdogs (this is the first this season as DD dogs are 0-4 ATS this season, but all have been on the road). The overriding reason I’m fading the Chiefs here is because they’re in a classic “anti-swagger” letdown spot after starting the season 9-0 and suffering their first loss of the season in Buffalo on Sunday. I’m not calling for the outright upset here, but this should be a case of the Chiefs going through the motions to get back in the win column but not needing to win by margin.

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Panthers +11 (pool play: Panthers 67/33 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still at least 90/10 in SU pools).

Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET

Regular readers also know I grew up a Bears (and Cubs and Bulls) fan in the Chicago suburbs, but they also know those lovable losers (the championships came muuuuch later) taught me to bet with my head and not my heart. We know the Bears (4-6)  have suffered some brutal losses this year and should have a better record, but we also know a young team has to learn how to win close games like that. The Vikings (8-2) are 8-3 ATS and except for that ugly 12-7 win at the Jaguars in which they failed to cover as 7-point home favorites, we know that they usually take care of business. Play the Bears as home dogs? No thanks (hey, I know I have to make these “pass” games entertaining reads, too).

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

We discussed double-digit underdogs earlier, and here’s another one. Did the Cowboys hit rock bottom in their 34-10 nationally televised loss to the Texans on Monday Night Football? The Commanders are coming off a mini-bye after also losing 26-18 in prime time at the Eagles last Thursday night. The Commanders were 9.5-point favorites, but it’s climbed through the semi-key number of 10. And while the Commanders (7-4) have shown they have learned how to win close games – before losing as short chalk vs. the Steelers in Week 10, they barely covered in one-score wins against the Giants and Bears the prior two weeks – that doesn’t bode well for them running up the score here. I’ll plug my nose and take the inflated points.

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Cowboys +10.5 (pool play: Cowboys 60/40 in ATS contests, but Commanders still 80/20 in SU pools).

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

In case you hadn’t noticed (and I admit I didn’t until I started writing this sentence), there are nine home dogs in the 13 games this weekend. So, as I’ve already written, we have to be selective to only back the live home pups. The Giants aren’t one of them. In 1989, I was still living in the Chicago suburbs when Bears coach Mike Ditka said his team was “in disarray” and “I don’t know if this team can win another football game” even though they were 4-2 and had won the NFC Central the previous five seasons. Ditka was right, as the Bears went 2-8 the rest of the way to finish 6-10 and miss the playoffs. Well, the definition of “disarray” describes this current Giants team with the move to bench Daniel Jones and his ill-advised $40 million contract for Tommy DeVito. Hard pass.

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Buccaneers 60/40 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

The Dolphins are obviously a much different team with the return of Tua Tagovailoa, but this line is still a little too high with how these teams have been playing. The Patriots had covered three straight (with two outright upsets) before their non-covering 28-22 loss vs. the Rams on Sunday, but they had their chances there, too. The Patriots also almost beat the Dolphins in their first meeting (a go-ahead TD was overturned by replay), even though Tagovailoa didn’t play in Week 5. This probably won’t be in my Top 5 contest plays in the Circa Sports Million or Westgate SuperContest (would take at +7.5), but I know I’ll be betting it as well.

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Patriots +7 (pool play: Patriots 60/40 in ATS contests, higher if offered +7.5, but Dolphins still 70/30 in SU pools).

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Here’s another underdog I find it easy to pass on as the Titans let me down as 6-point dogs vs. the Vikings on Sunday in a 23-13 loss as I never felt they were competitive (and the only time they got within the spread in the second half was on the fluke 98-yard TD pass from Will Levis to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Unless you can guarantee me they can pull off a similar play, I’ll pass.

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 90/10 in SU pools).

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

I really expected a better effort out of my new hometown team, the Raiders, coming out of their bye, but they failed to cover as 7.5-point road dogs in a 34-19 loss at Miami. The Dolphins did let them stick around until the fourth quarter (which is another reason I feel confident fading the Fish vs. the Patriots), but the Broncos’ defense has been better this year, ranking No. 3 at 289.4 yards allowed per game, so I expect the road favorite to roll here.

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Broncos 60/40 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Here is this week’s definition of a coin-flip game, so it’s fitting most books are offering pick-’em. The Seahawks were -1 on the advance line last week before they upset the 49ers 20-17, so I’m kinda surprised the line didn’t raise a little (and, in fact, the Westgate SuperContest is using Cardinals -1 as they obviously expect them to close as the chalk). I’ll pass for now, though if somehow the line went to -1.5 on either side, I would tease the dog to +7.5.

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Pass for now (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

This is Sunday afternoon’s marquee game, even though the 49ers are only 5-5. I know they’ve been underachieving (and I’ve been more than happy to fade them with success this season); however, I still regard them as the better team here (No. 2 in total offense, No. 6 in total defense) and believe they should be favored. I’ll take the points (again, I believe the only reason the Packers are favored is the supposed home-field advantage). Let’s also post our official “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” plays here, as I really love being able to use our 2-team, 6-point teasers to move the line through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to +8. The other underdog I want to put it with is the Chargers +8.5 or +9 as home dogs vs. the Ravens on Monday Night Football. For those who like to tease down favorites, we also recommend using these in our 2-teamers: Lions -1.5 (even though I’m also taking the Colts +7.5 and shooting for a middle) and Texans -1.5 vs. Titans.

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: 49ers +2 as well as 49ers +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: 49ers 67/33 in ATS contests and let’s call for outright upset at 60/40 in SU pools).

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

The Eagles (8-2) are on a roll with a six-game winning streak (and 4-2 ATS in that run), and it’s hard to fade them right now, especially at this short number. The Rams (5-5) have won four of five to get back into the wild-card hunt (and the NFC West race, too, as they’re just one game behind the Cardinals, but I’m not sure they can match the Eagles score for score. However, talk to me if you see a +3.5.

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Rams 55/45 in ATS contests, higher if offered +3.5, but Eagles 67/33 in SU pools).

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

The line for the Monday nighter has been wavering between Ravens -2.5 and -3 (hence the -2.5/-3 in the header). The Ravens (7-4) are another team that puts up great stats but tends to let teams stick around as they’re only 5-5-1 ATS. The Chargers are starting to win me over (mostly from my dogs failing to cover against them lately, as they’re 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games), but just like the Rams on Sunday night, I’m not sure I’m getting enough points to back them as home dogs against the spread. But because the Ravens do tend to play a lot of close games, I am including the Chargers in “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” as stated above to close out Week 12. Note: if we’re not alive with the first legs of those teasers, I’ll start new ones on Chargers +8.5 or higher to my favorite dog teasers in Week 13.

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Chargers +8.5 or +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers  (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Ravens still 60/40 in SU pools).

For more NFL Week 12 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 12 Hub exclusively on VSiN.