Good morning. The first phase of the ceasefire in Gaza expired over the weekend – and now, the only thing stopping the resumption of Israel’s assault on the territory is the will of Benjamin Netanyahu. That is the bleak reality for the hostages still alive in Gaza, and the Palestinian civilians there who were subjected to a new aid embargo on Sunday. Last night, the Israeli government was reported to be planning to ratchet the blockade up further – with a programme of measures referred to as the “hell plan”.

When the ceasefire was agreed in January, the theory was that the first phase would provide space for negotiations over a more durable truce. But those talks simply have not happened. Israel is pushing for the release of more hostages in an extension to the first phase – a step that Hamas, fearing the loss of its only source of leverage, refuses to countenance. Both sides are now making preparations for the resumption of violence.

The question now is whether there is any way to return to the agreed track – and whether the White House is prepared to impose the kind of pressure that might bring it about. In today’s newsletter, Julian Borger, the Guardian’s senior international correspondent reporting from Jerusalem, explains why there is such pessimism about that happening. Here are the headlines.

Five big stories

1. Ukraine | Donald Trump has suspended delivery of all US military aid to Ukraine, blocking billions in crucial shipments as the White House piles pressure on Ukraine to sue for peace with Vladimir Putin. The Trump administration was earlier reported to be drawing up a plan to restore ties with Russia and lift sanctions on the Kremlin.

2. Education | Labour is preparing major changes to special educational needs provision in English schools, as individual councils raise the alarm over debts running into hundreds of millions of pounds. With councils currently paying to send many children to private schools because of a lack of adequate local options, the government is believed to be considering measures that would prioritise state provision.

3. Tariffs | China and Canada unveiled retaliatory measures against the US after Donald Trump imposed his sweeping tariffs plan on Tuesday, despite warnings it could spark an escalating trade war. The new US tariffs stand at 25% against goods from Canada and Mexico and 20% against those from China.

4. Obesity | More than half of adults and a third of children and young people worldwide will be overweight or obese by 2050, posing an “unparalleled threat” of early death and enormous strain on healthcare systems, a report warns. There are now 2.11 billion adults aged 25 or above who are overweight or obese, against 731 million in 1990.

5. Art | The self-taught Scottish painter Jack Vettriano, who became hugely popular despite being shunned by critics, has been found dead at his apartment in Nice in the south of France, his publicist has said. He was 73.

In depth: ‘The only person with the leverage to stop a return to war is Donald Trump’

The ceasefire, which began on 19 January, came after months of agonising negotiations. When it finally came, the deal set out a mechanism that would see the release of 25 living hostages and the bodies of eight others who died in captivity. In exchange, Israel has freed more than 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

Now, though, any apparent momentum created by that progress appears illusory. “Netanyahu never wanted the second phase to happen,” Julian Borger said. “At this point, it looks like the only person with the leverage to stop a return to war is Donald Trump.”

What happened during the first phase?

The ceasefire has largely held – but with significant wobbles. Israel has accused Hamas of chaotic handovers for propaganda purposes that put the living hostages in danger, and came close to bringing the deal to an end when it was discovered that it handed over someone else’s body instead of Shiri Bibas, who was 32 when she was abducted with her two children on 7 October 2023 and became a symbol of the campaign to get the hostages out.

Meanwhile, Hamas has accused Israel of letting significantly less aid than promised into Gaza – and of attacks that violate the deal. Gaza’s health ministry said on Sunday that 116 people have been killed by IDF attacks on Gaza since the ceasefire began. Israel has also refused to withdraw from the Philadelphi corridor, along the Gaza-Egypt border.

At the same time, Israel has significantly stepped up its operations in the West Bank, where about 40,000 people have been forced from their homes by a new assault on militant groups based in four refugee camps – the biggest forced displacement since the 1967 six-day war.

What was meant to happen to enact the second phase?

The theory of the deal was that negotiations would begin to agree terms for a permanent truce, which was supposed to start on Sunday. Talks were meant to cover a short-term deal for the return of about 60 remaining hostages – some of whom are dead – as well as the shape of a long-term plan for Gaza’s governance. A second phase would theoretically involve the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the territory.

But those talks have been repeatedly postponed. Instead, Israel has been pushing for an extension to the first stage of the ceasefire and the release of half of the remaining hostages without any significant new concessions in return. Hamas says that it wants to negotiate the second stage as planned.

Netanyahu has said that the plan to extend the first phase through Ramadan and Passover was the brainchild of Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy to the Middle East (pictured above with Netanyahu).

“They’re framing it as Hamas refusing to accept Witkoff’s suggestion,” Julian said. “But we haven’t heard from Witkoff at all. It’s not impossible that this was something he suggested as a what-if, and Netanyahu is trying to lock him into the idea by making it public.” The supposed Witkoff plan, he noted, is very similar to the proposal that Israel took to discussions in Cairo last week.

Why have talks stalled?

A key issue has been the stark divide between the two sides on what Gaza’s future governance might look like: Hamas has refused to countenance any proposals that send its officials into exile. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has hardened his line on what negotiations might cover over the course of the first phase, and now says Israel is ready to return to war unless Hamas voluntarily disarms.

A comfortable majority of Israelis want a continuation of the ceasefire, opinion polls suggest – but Netanyahu’s reliance on the extreme right to keep his government from collapsing has been a key influence on his approach. They have insisted that any outcome short of “total victory” over Hamas is unacceptable. Hamas sees little advantage in releasing more hostages without an ironclad move to a permanent truce: with every hostage that is freed, it loses more of its leverage over what happens next.

Netanyahu has refused to allow Israeli negotiators to enter serious discussions about a second phase. “It is just not something he is politically prepared to do,” Julian said. “Withdrawing Israeli troops from the Philadelphi corridor is something that would threaten to break up his coalition, because the far right would not accept it. Many commentators at the time the deal was initially struck thought this was something that Netanyahu had been pushed into by Trump, and that he would try to bring it down before a second phase began.” It is hard to argue with that analysis today.

Where does the ceasefire stand today?

It is still just about holding, but has no guardrails to keep it from ending at any time. Yesterday, a stabbing in the Israeli city of Haifa left one dead and several people wounded. Meanwhile, an Israeli strike in central Rafah killed two people and another in Khan Younis wounded several more.

Both sides are mobilising in preparation for a return to war: last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Hamas has appointed new commanders and started repurposing unexploded bombs as IEDs. Israeli defence officials told the New York Times that extensive preparations have been made for a new and intense campaign. And over the weekend, US secretary of state Marco Rubio bypassed Congress by using “emergency authorities” to send $4bn in new weapons to Israel.

Israel sought to ratchet up the pressure on Hamas as the first phase of the ceasefire expired by stopping the entry of all aid into Gaza. “There are no circumstances under which cutting off food and basic supplies to civilians is legal under the law of war,” Julian said. “And it’s interesting to note that, whereas when Biden was president Israel always denied that it was them holding up aid, Netanyahu now feels free to say quite boldly and clearly that he is cutting off all humanitarian aid to Gaza. It suggests that he feels empowered.”

Now, under the so-called “hell plan”, Israel is reportedly preparing to cut off electricity and remaining water supplies, and could also move Palestinians who have returned to the north of Gaza back to the south – paving the way for the potential resumption of full-scale war.

Is there any chance that the process will get back on track?

It is not impossible that some agreement will be reached on an extension of the first phase, Julian said: “When Hamas turned it down, they said that they objected to ‘this formulation of the extension’, which suggests that they might accept something where they had to release fewer hostages. But they won’t feel they can accept one where their leverage in the form of hostages is halved.”

Meanwhile, all of the effective political pressure on Netanyahu is coming from the far right, and that makes the path to the next phase of the ceasefire extremely narrow. Julian pointed to the White House’s move to sanction the international criminal court in an executive order accusing the ICC of baselessly targeting the US and Israel as evidence of how little pressure appears to be coming from Washington. The sanctions put financial and visa restrictions on those involved in investigations of US nationals and US allies.

“They are protecting Netanyahu, in a very clear way, from the leading instrument of international justice,” he said. “There is a path to a second phase – but it runs through Washington. And Steve Witkoff has said that phase two has got to happen. So the question is whether Trump’s public declarations that he backs whatever Israel wants to do defines US policy – or if Witkoff has the power to do more.”

What else we’ve been reading

• “An ugly, disordered world of raw power, brute force, selfish arrogance, dodgy deals and brazen lies. It’s been coming for a while; the US president is its noisy harbinger” – Simon Tisdall writes that Donald Trump has changed the rules of engagement on the world stage, and his peers must learn to navigate them, quickly. Charlie Lindlar, acting deputy editor, newsletters

• Xan Brooks went to the Oscars, and has an entertaining report from the peanut gallery of mezzanine two: “More glamorous and more humdrum than it appears on TV, rather like an annual works do with prettier faces and better dresses.” Archie

• Although I cannot imagine what motivates volunteers (pictured above) to climb down Britain’s deepest lock for a spring clean, I’m deeply appreciative of their sense of adventure. As one promises to Mark Brown in his feature:“There is an absolute magic about it.” Charlie

• The legendary Washington Post editor Marty Baron was surprised by what a good owner Jeff Bezos turned out to be; now, as his former boss’s measures to placate Donald Trump tarnish the newspaper’s reputation, Baron takes a very different view. His Atlantic piece is excoriating. Archie

• A waste dump in Rainham, east London, has been burning for years – the fire brigade has attended 200 callouts since 2018. William Ralston’s terrific long read tells the story of the locals attempting their own “Erin Brockovich moment” to stop it when nobody else will. Archie

Sport

Football | The Nottingham Forest goalkeeper, Matz Sels (above), was the hero as he saved Jack Taylor’s penalty to knock out Ipswich 5-4 on penalties after a 1-1 draw.

Football | Fifa’s new 16-team Women’s Club World Cup could be delayed beyond its previously proposed 2026 launch, the Guardian has learned. The plans, first announced in 2021, could be pushed back by a couple of years with a mini-tournament introduced in the meantime.

Cricket | Jimmy Anderson has registered for this season’s Hundred draft, signalling his intent to continue his unexpected lap of honour in domestic cricket. By the time season five of the competition begins he will be 43.

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