TEL AVIV, Israel — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s White House visit Tuesday will be rife with symbolism: He’s the first world leader to meet President Trump since the inauguration two weeks ago.

It will also be a crucial day for the future of the Middle East — and Netanyahu himself.

Negotiations have begun for a second phase of a ceasefire deal that would end the war with Hamas and return all Israeli hostages from captivity in Gaza. Also on the table is a bargain that could reshape the Middle East for decades to come: a deal to open Israel’s diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia.

Another central question to resolve: whether Israel will launch a military strike on a weakened Iran, shorn after a year of intense fighting against its proxies.

Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, played a key role in persuading Netanyahu to accept the ceasefire’s first phase, and Trump wants to see the deal continue until all hostages are freed and the war is over, in order to focus on a Saudi-Israeli peace deal.

The Israeli leader’s allies, however, have threatened to bring down the government if Israel goes down that path — and does not resume the war in Gaza and eliminate Hamas rule there.

“The Tuesday meeting is actually critical to Netanyahu’s ability to survive as the leader of Israel and to make sure that his coalition stays intact,” says Gayil Talshir, professor of politics at Hebrew University. “I think Netanyahu wants exactly what Trump offers him, but I think his own coalition has quite a different vision.”

Netanyahu’s political future and legacy

The main challenge Netanyahu faces is from Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister, who wants the war to continue till Hamas is destroyed — a task Israeli defense analysts believe is unrealistic, so long as Hamas continues to hold Israeli hostages and Israel does not endorse a viable alternative leadership for Gaza.

Despite Israel pounding Gaza for over a year, the recent hostage releases have seen dozens of masked Hamas fighters parade Israelis on makeshift stages before freeing them.

Talshir, who’s writing a forthcoming book about the Netanyahu era of Israel, believes that given Netanyahu’s interest in retaining his coalition and staying in office, the prime minister might have an interest in returning to war.

“As long as he continues the war, Israel does not go to election,” Talshir says. “Israel does not have a public investigation of what happened on Oct. 7. And Netanyahu remains in power.”

Netanyahu faces another Gordian knot: He and Trump have their sights set on establishing Saudi-Israeli relations, but Riyadh in return demands a pathway to a Palestinian state. That’s a prospect Netanyahu’s allies and most of the Israeli parliament oppose even more fervently after the deadly Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, that sparked the Gaza war. They see a Palestinian state as a security threat to Israel and an undeserved reward to Palestinians after the attack.

Victoria Coates, an analyst at The Heritage Foundation in Washington D.C., and a deputy national security adviser to Trump during his first term, said the U.S. president will find it difficult to satisfy that Saudi demand.

“As much as we might want a deal with Saudi Arabia, you know, Israel is going to, particularly after Oct. 7, remain very, very mindful of its internal security. It has to,” says Coates. “So, you know, the deal that looked like it was pretty imminent in the 2020-21 time frame may take a little bit longer now.”

Trump has also floated the prospect of relocating Palestinians from Gaza to neighboring Egypt and Jordan. Arab countries including Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have firmly rejected the idea, as have Palestinians.

Many Israelis want the hostages to return

On Saturday, family and friends cheered as American Israeli hostage Keith Siegel was freed by Hamas. But many at the gathering at Siegel’s extended relatives’ home in a kibbutz in central Israel expressed nervousness about the war resuming before all the hostages were freed. Rabbi Steve Burnstein believes U.S. pressure can make a difference.

“We just hope and pray that the Americans do everything that they can to ensure that the Israeli government has the strength and the courage to make sure that we reach the second stage of the deal,” he said to NPR.

That same evening, a few thousand Tel Aviv residents showed up at one of the weekly rallies celebrating the return of three Israeli hostages and demanding the government work toward returning all the remaining hostages still held by Hamas, many of whom are believed dead.

At the rally, Shelly, who only gave her first name to speak frankly about U.S.-Israeli politics without repercussion, said she believes only “Trump can push Netanyahu to seal another deal.”

“I feel like Netanyahu didn’t want a deal before. And he’s doing it because Trump said so,” she said. “And I hope Trump’s gonna tell him, we’re bringing everyone. Every single hostage home.”