Happy Thanksgiving! Today we have a tripleheader of NFL action on tap. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 10-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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The Bears (4-7) have dropped five straight games and just came up short against the Vikings 30-27 in overtime but managed to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Lions (10-1) have won nine straight and just dismissed the Colts 24-6, covering as 7-point road favorites. The early opener for this game was Detroit listed as high as an 11.5-point home favorite. We quickly saw this line get adjusted down to -10.5. The public sees an easy blowout win for the powerhouse Lions and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the home favorite. However, despite receiving 76% of spread bets at DraftKings and 83% of spread bets at Circa Sports we’ve seen the Lions fall from -10.5 to -9.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Bears, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play. At Circa, the Bears are only receiving 17% of spread bets but 42% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Bears have value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Divisional dogs getting 6-points or more are 14-5 ATS (74%) with a 38% ROI this season. Chicago also has buy-low value as a dog on a losing streak against a sell-high favorite on a winning streak. We’ve also seen sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 49.5 to 47.5. This downward movement is notable because the public is hammering the over (76% of bets at DraftKings and 81% of bets at Circa), yet the total fell. The Bears are 7-4 to the under this season. The Lions are 6-5 to the under.

The Giants (2-9) have lost six straight games and just got crushed by the Buccaneers 30-7, failing to cover as 6-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Cowboys (4-7) just snapped their five-game losing streak with a 34-26 upset win over the Commanders, winning outright as 10.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public and the sharps seem to both like the Cowboys here, as we’ve seen Dallas tick up from -2.5 to -3.5. The Cowboys are receiving 80% of spread bets and 84% of spread dollars at DraftKings, signaling heavy support from both Pros and Joes. Those looking to follow the sharp move but also mitigate some risk around a key number could instead elect to play Dallas on the moneyline at -185. Favorites are 48-9 (84%) straight up on Thanksgiving Day over the past 20 years. The Cowboys have a notable edge on offense, averaging 20.1 PPG compared to 14.8 PPG for the Giants. Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 41.5 to 37.5. At Circa, the under is only receiving 26% of bets but 34% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. The Giants are 8-3 to the under this season, the best under team in the NFL.

The Dolphins (5-6) have won three straight games and just dismissed the Patriots 34-15, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Similarly, the Packers (8-3) have won six of their last seven and just crushed the 49ers 38-10, cruising as 6.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with the Packers at home. However, despite receiving 61% of spread bets at DraftKings and 81% of spread bets at Circa, we’ve seen Green Bay remain stagnant at -3.5. This line never ticked up to -4. Oddsmakers are also juicing up the Dolphins +3.5 (-115), signaling some sneaky line freeze liability on Miami plus the hook. The Dolphins are receiving 39% of spread bets and 47% of spread dollars at DraftKings, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Miami has notable contrarian value, as they are only receiving 19% of spread bets at Circa in a heavily bet primetime game. In terms of the total, we’ve seen it fall from 48.5 to 47.5. The under is only receiving 35% of bets but 44% of dollars at DraftKings. Thanksgiving night unders are 11-6 (65%) since 2006. Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for mid 20s with 15 MPH winds (gusts up to 25 MPH) and possibly some snow. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.