Eight weeks’ results typically provides us a healthy amount of data from which to make meaningful judgments in our defensive planning. But doesn’t it seem that it’s tougher than ever to put your trust in a fantasy team defense?

Check out the past four weeks’ returns (using per-game averages to put every team on an even scale): Three of the eight best team defense/special teams, in fantasy terms, placed among the six worst-scoring units over the season’s first four weeks (Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders). The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, scored 21 fantasy points total in their four September games, had a Week 5 bye, and have compiled 36 in three games since.

As for the preseason’s most popular D/ST picks, going by average draft position in ESPN leagues, the top three currently place 13th (Cleveland Browns), 31st (Dallas Cowboys) and 26th (Baltimore Ravens) in average fantasy points for the season.

Certainly those fantasy managers who scooped up the Denver Broncos, a D/ST rostered in only 1.5% of ESPN leagues as of the Week 1 Thursday kickoff, are pleased with their returns. They lead with an 11.5 fantasy point average, and are the only team with as many as three games with 15-plus points. Yes, sometimes scooping up an early streaming D/ST choice can pay seasonlong dividends. The Broncos, along with perhaps the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears, are the early leaders on that front.

For those of us who haven’t been so lucky, it’s time to refresh our D/ST Road Map, to help navigate you through the critical November weeks just ahead of the fantasy football playoffs. Plenty has changed on the matchups front, we have already seen three performance-based and as many as six injury-driven quarterback changes (some of which have since seen the original starter return), and 22 teams have yet to have their bye, 16 of which will occur over the next four weeks.

Opponents to exploit with D/STs

Here are the eight most fantasy-friendly matchups for defenses, derived from my own assessment, but also accounting for schedule-adjusted, points-allowed data over the past five weeks and for the season as a whole:

1. Las Vegas Raiders: added 5.6 points to a D/ST’s score on average over the past five weeks (3rd most), and 5.7 points on average for the season (3rd most)
2. New England Patriots: +6.1 points past five (2nd most), +5.0 points season (4th most)
3. Browns: +5.1 points past five (4th), +6.7 points season (1st)
4. New Orleans Saints: +7.1 points past 5 (1st), +4.0 points season (6th)
5. New York Giants: +3.8 points past 5 (6th), +3.3 points season (7th)
6. Carolina Panthers: +2.7 points past 5 (7th), +2.5 points season (8th)
7. Tennessee Titans: +2.4 points past 5 (8th), +6.5 points season (2nd)
8. Broncos: +0.2 points past 5 (11th), +0.6 points season (10th)

Other plus-matchup offenses: Bears, Miami Dolphins, Cowboys.

Opponents to avoid with D/STs

1. Ravens: subtracted 7.7 points from a D/ST’s score on average over the past five weeks (league’s best), and 6.9 points on average for the season (also best)
2. Commanders: minus-4.9 points past five (2nd best), minus-4.4 season (2nd best)
3. Lions: minus-4.5 past five (4th), minus-3.6 season (3rd)
4. Buffalo Bills: minus-3.1 past five (5th), minus-2.5 season (5th)
5. San Francisco 49ers: minus-2.2 past five (10th), minus-2.8 season (4th)
6. Houston Texans: minus-2.6 past five (6th), minus-2.1 season (8th)
7. Kansas City Chiefs: minus-2.4 past five (7th), minus-0.8 season (16th)
8. Green Bay Packers: minus-1.9 past five (12th), minus-2.4 season (6th)

Other bad-matchup offenses: Arizona Cardinals, Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers.

The team defense/special teams to lock in for November

All D/ST recommendations are among those that began the week available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues.

The Atlanta Falcons hit their bye week in Week 12, but they have three plus matchups heading into it (DAL, @NO, DEN). Granted, the Falcons rank only 22nd for the season with a 4.1 fantasy point weekly average, but they’ve also had one of the more difficult full-year schedules to date. If there’s any singular defense to trust over the course of November, it’s the Falcons.

Week 9 D/ST recommendations

• Cincinnati Bengals (LV): They’ve picked up the pace as far as exploiting matchups, with seven and 15 points against the Giants and Browns in Weeks 6 and 7, and this is another plus matchup for them.

• Commanders (@NYG): They scored three points against the Giants in Week 2, but their 14- and 19-point successes in Weeks 5 and 7 were plenty encouraging.

• Saints (@CAR): The next-closest thing to a November locked-in defense — also see Week 11 — the Saints scored 17 points against these Panthers in Week 1.

Avoid: The league-leading Broncos (@BAL) have their toughest matchup of 2024, and be aware that no Ravens opponent this season has generated more than three fantasy points from their D/ST. The New York Jets (HOU) are also a defense to avoid on “Thursday Night Football.”

Week 10 D/ST recommendations

• Bears (NE): They’re only a hair under the 50% roster threshold, but they also have had huge scores when facing plus matchups (26 fantasy points against the Titans in Week 1, 15 against the Panthers in Week 5).

• Giants (@CAR): They’re 11th in the league in fantasy points per game (7.1), and if the Panthers’ switch back to Bryce Young sticks, this is a great matchup.

• Falcons (@NO): They scored a season-best 16 fantasy points against the Saints in Week 4, a game in which Derek Carr was the quarterback.

Avoid: The Steelers (@WSH) draw the dreaded Washington Commanders matchup, one in which the No. 4-scoring Bears scored minus-3 points last week. Additionally, both the Lions (@HOU) and Broncos (@KC) face suboptimal matchups.

Week 11 D/ST recommendations

• Dolphins (LV): They have yet to reach double-digits in fantasy points in a game this season, but the Raiders have already seen five of those scored against them (plus another two that were worth nine points).

• Saints (CLE): Jameis Winston‘s installation as Browns quarterback improves their offensive fortunes, but it’s also a move that keeps them rather turnover-prone.

• Rams (@NE): Their 17 fantasy point outburst against the Raiders in Week 7 underscores their ability to exploit matchups as favorable as this one.

Avoid: Again, the Steelers (BAL) draw one of the by far two worst matchups for a D/ST, making them a “no” in back-to-back weeks. The Chiefs (@BUF) could also be subbed out for one of the above choices.

Week 12 D/ST recommendations

• Dolphins (NE): They get back-to-back home games against two of the worst offenses in the NFL.

• Texans (TEN): The Titans have averaged more turnovers per game than anyone else in the league (2.3).

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@NYG): They’ve been as hit-or-miss a defense as they come, but the Giants have seen each of their past four opponents generate at least seven fantasy points from their D/STs.

Avoid: It’s the Los Angeles Chargers (BAL) who draw the dreaded Ravens matchup for Week 12, and be aware that the Chargers averaged five fantasy points in below-average-to-poor matchups against the Steelers, Chiefs and Cardinals already.