It will be a surprising all-unseeded, all-French final at the Japan Open when Ugo Humbert and Arthur Fils collide on championship Tuesday in Tokyo.

Just about every statistic is in Humbert’s favor. The left-hander leads their head-to-head series 3-0 on the main tour and 4-0 overall, including 8-1 in total sets. He is 4-for-4 in sets against Fils so far in 2024, prevailing 6-3, 7-6(1) in ‘s-Hertogenbosch and 6-2, 6-2 at the Montreal Masters. Moreover, Humbert is an amazing 6-0 lifetime in ATP finals.

As if those numbers aren’t enough to feel confident in Humbert, Fils has endured an incredibly grueling tournament. The 20-year-old’s run includes a three-set win over top seed Taylor Fritz, a three-hour marathon with Ben Shelton in the quarters, and a 7-6(8), 7-6(10) upset of Holger Rune on Monday. Fils cramped during the match against Shelton and after the match against Rune.

Humbert’s stay in Beijing has been entirely different. The world No. 19 has disposed Shintaro Mochizuki, Brandon Nakashima, Jack Draper, and Tomas Machac, dropping just one set to Machac in the semis. Even that contest lasted only one hour and 46 minutes.

This is an ideal matchup for Humbert, whose lefty serve and forehand work perfectly to expose Fils’ weakness–the backhand. Given Fils’ fatigue and Humbert’s history of success in ATP title matches, another straightforward result between these two countrymen is likely in the cards.

Pick: Humbert in 2