Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

NY Jets @ Buffalo Bills -3: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Buffalo’s defense is a significant liability overall, but I still have confidence that they can win this game by a field goal. That’s how combustible the Jets are, as they find new ways to lose on a weekly basis despite the offense finally showing signs of life.

But for all the struggles Buffalo has had defensively, it’s been worse for the Jets who since Week 9 rank 30th in EPA/play and 28th in success rate. This is supposed to be a rainy, sloppy game where the run game will carry more importance, so I want the excellent Bills rushing attack against a bad Jets run defense.

Indianapolis Colts/NY Giants Under 47.5: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Giants games at MetLife have been where totals go to die since 2020, and I think another one stays well under today. Home games for the Giants are 7-2 under this total on the season and 12-3 to the under in all their games, a product of this horrible offense that won’t get any better here. No matter which of their collection of CFL-hopeful quarterbacks gets the start today, they just haven’t been able to put up points.

An improving Colts defense that is motivated to cling to playoff hopes should have no trouble shutting the Giants down. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco starts for Indy as Anthony Richardson is out with injury, meaning we’re even more likely to see an incredibly high dose of Jonathan Taylor today. That should keep the clock running, and I don’t see enough offense to get over this adjusted total.

Carolina Panthers +16.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

No team is hotter from an ATS perspective than Carolina, who is on a 6-1 run against the number with the lone loss coming as a favorite. So padding their underdog status today with an extra touchdown looks like good value, especially in this matchup. The Panthers were a fumble and a wild overtime away from beating the Bucs a few weeks ago, and now Tampa is far more banged up at key positions.

As strange as it sounds, since Week 9 the Panthers have actually turned into a top-15 offense in the league thanks to some growth (no, not that kind) from Bryce Young and getting Adam Thielen to ball out like his younger self. The Bucs have the only incentive to win in this game, thus an inflated line that might be too big on its own. So to boost it to this massive number creates a big back door for Carolina to get into against a Tampa team with plenty of defensive issues.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – TJ Hockenson Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – TJ Hockenson Over 4.5 Receptions (+115)

0.25 Unit – TJ Hockenson Alt Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (+200)

0.5 Unit – Josh Jacobs Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Aaron Jones Over 89.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Brock Bowers Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jonathan Taylor Over 97.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – James Cook Over 1.5 Anytime TD’s (+500)

0.25 Unit – Josh Allen Over 1.5 Anytime TD’s (+575)

0.25 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 Interceptions (+110)

0.75 Unit – Jalen McMillan Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Jalen McMillan Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Brian Thomas Jr Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Calvin Ridley Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 128.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Bijan Robinson Over 107.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Zach Ertz Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Toledo/Purdue First Half Over 74.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on BTN

Purdue has had a tough stretch of games, dropping two straight and three of their past four will all of those losses away from Mackey Arena. So it should feel good for them to be back home, and facing a team that they can easily dominate, which I think they’ll look to do as a bounce back. When the Boilermakers put in those efforts it usually turns into a high-scoring start due to them running it up early. Toledo is not going to be able to stop them, as the Rockets have the 328th-ranked defense in the country.

Toledo plays fast though, which will help with early scoring, as will their method of scoring. They’ve gone completely away from the volume three-point shooting of recent seasons, ranking 327th in three-point attempts, and instead getting a high percentage of their points inside. That’s where Purdue has struggled the most this season, as injuries to their frontcourt has left them just 220th in two-point percentage defense despite being a top-75 unit overall. If Toledo can convert on the interior while Purdue looks to go nuclear in a statement game, this should be a very high-scoring first half before the Boilers slow things down late.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +74.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.