Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Seattle Seahawks -2.5 First Half @ Chicago Bears (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

This first half number is skewed towards Seattle because books have figured out just how bad this Bears team is early in games. After falling behind by 13 at halftime on Sunday, that makes a cumulative halftime deficit of 80-14 over Chicago’s past 4 games. They’re now down to 30th in first half scoring and 27th in first half points allowed, not a great combo and one that I think bites them again tonight. There’s only one team with anything to play for here, and that’s the Seahawks who are chasing a division title but would probably be effectively eliminated with a loss tonight. I’ll bank on that motivation and Chicago’s early-game struggles to add up to a solid Seattle lead by halftime.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Pittsburgh Team Total Under 28.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN

The total in this game has crashed from the opener, but with Pitt favored so heavily, their team total has not come down far enough. Sitting on the north side of the key number of 28 is too good to pass up because I have no idea how they’re going to score much of anything today. The Panthers lost both their first and second-string quarterbacks to injury, so it looks like a true freshman third-stringer will start today. They’re also without top running back Des Reid who’s injured, and top receiver Konata Mumpfield who opted out.

So it would seem to me that the only real option for Pitt here is to keep it on the ground with some inexperienced running backs, but they’re facing a Toledo defense that’s 30th in rush success rate allowed. The bottom line though is the Panthers were struggling offensively for a long time, going under this team total in 6 of their last 7 games after being an elite offense to start the season. Add in the injury and opt out bugs biting hard for bowl season, plus a solid defense across from them, and I just don’t see where the points are coming from.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies First Half Team Total Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE

This game is expected to be a blowout, with a double-digit spread for an obvious mismatch on the floor. Instead of laying big numbers, I prefer to look to the portion of the game where the superior team will be trying their hardest. That’s usually the first half, and for Memphis the first half is where they’re typically putting on a show.

The Grizzlies lead the NBA in first half scoring at 62.7 PPG including 64.3 at home, plus they’ve been stewing for 3 days over a bad home loss so they should want to make a statement here. That shouldn’t be too difficult against a Raptors team that’s in the business of losing, and are 26th in defensive efficiency on the road. The Grizzlies should be able to name their score here, and a total that’s coming in below what they average seems like easy pickings to me.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +70.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.